Every call on the record.
Every record settled.
Each daily verdict is settled 7 days later against a fixed, versioned rule. Hits and misses both stay on the record.
Every call publicly graded — settled 7d vs BTC on a fixed rule (settle_v1).
494 neutral verdicts — no-call days, not counted in the win rate; 37% stayed inside the band.
⚡ Get flip & settlement alerts on Telegram: @CoinVerdictBot → /watch BTC · Screener →
n = 1575 decided calls — early archive; expect the number to move.
■ WIN ■ LOSS ■ PUSH · win rate · directional calls
Is 63% actually good?
Our directional win rate, side by side with two honest baselines. A coin flip on direction wins half the time; buying every coin (naive bull) wins only when the market cooperates. Beating both is the point.
Directional calls only (pushes and neutrals excluded). Early archive — the number moves.
Where the edge shows up
The same settled record, split three ways. Every cell carries its own n; buckets under 10 decided calls show the sample, not a percentage.
By stance
| W–L–P | Win rate | n | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overweight (long) | 118–175–137 | 40% | 293 |
| Underweight (short) | 877–405–973 | 68% | 1282 |
By market regime · BTC over the 7-day window
| W–L–P | Win rate | n | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC up (> +3.0%) | 267–157–195 | 63% | 424 |
| BTC down (< −3.0%) | 42–9–17 | 82% | 51 |
| BTC flat (±3.0%) | 686–414–898 | 62% | 1100 |
Excess return vs BTC, per call
Directional calls only (neutrals and in-band pushes excluded). Excess return is each call's return relative to BTC over the same 7 days.
Simulated equity — if you had traded every verdict
Long each overweight call, short each underweight, equal weight, held 7 days, settled at the archived T0/T7 prices — against simply holding BTC.
■ Strategy ┈ Hold BTC
Post-hoc simulation over already-settled verdicts — not a live track record, not an audited fund, and not performance advertising. Equal-weight, 7-day holds, 10 bps per side in fees. Past simulation says nothing about the future.
Does stated confidence hold up?
Each verdict states a confidence. Here is the settled win rate for each level — buckets under 10 decided calls show the sample only.
| Stated confidence | Win rate | n |
|---|---|---|
| High | 69% | 642 |
| Medium | 59% | 907 |
| Low | 42% | 19 |
Confidence is read from each archived verdict; win rate is the same settle_v1 directional rule.
| Date | Coin | Verdict | 7d vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | AAVE | Overweight | +4.5% | WIN |
| 2026-08-29 | ADA | Underweight | +1.6% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | ALGO | Underweight | +2.0% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | APE | Underweight | +0.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | APT | Underweight | +4.6% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | ARB | Underweight | +44.9% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | ASTER | Underweight | +3.5% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | ATOM | Underweight | -1.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | AVAX | Neutral | -1.2% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | AXS | Underweight | +2.1% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | BNB | Neutral | +1.9% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | BTC | Overweight | +2.3% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | CC | Underweight | -4.5% | WIN |
| 2026-08-29 | CHZ | Underweight | -3.4% | WIN |
| 2026-08-29 | COMP | Underweight | +5.0% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | CRV | Overweight | +11.0% | WIN |
| 2026-08-29 | DOT | Underweight | +2.1% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | DYDX | Underweight | +4.2% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | EIGEN | Underweight | -0.9% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | ENA | Underweight | -1.6% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | ENS | Underweight | +2.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | ETH | Underweight | -1.8% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | FET | Underweight | +3.1% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | FIL | Underweight | +8.8% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | GALA | Underweight | +0.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | GRT | Underweight | -1.0% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | HBAR | Underweight | +2.3% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | HYPE | Overweight | +2.2% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | ICP | Neutral | +1.9% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | IMX | Overweight | -5.1% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | INJ | Overweight | -9.2% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | JTO | Underweight | -19.4% | WIN |
| 2026-08-29 | JUP | Neutral | -4.5% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-29 | KAS | Underweight | +3.8% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | LDO | Underweight | +8.0% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | LINK | Overweight | -0.8% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | LTC | Underweight | +0.9% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | M | Underweight | +8.0% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | MANA | Underweight | -2.1% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | MKR | Underweight | -2.3% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | NEAR | Underweight | +20.1% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | ONDO | Underweight | +1.0% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | OP | Underweight | +7.6% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | ORDI | Overweight | -3.2% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | POL | Underweight | -16.3% | WIN |
| 2026-08-29 | PYTH | Neutral | +11.0% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-29 | RENDER | Underweight | -1.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | RUNE | Overweight | -2.3% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | S | Overweight | -3.0% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | SAND | Underweight | -1.9% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | SEI | Underweight | +0.0% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | SKY | Overweight | -1.8% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | SNX | Underweight | -2.6% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | SOL | Overweight | -4.6% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | STRK | Underweight | +12.7% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | STX | Underweight | +6.7% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | SUI | Underweight | +0.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | TAO | Neutral | -5.2% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-29 | TIA | Underweight | +1.9% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | TON | Underweight | -0.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | TRX | Overweight | -5.2% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | UNI | Overweight | +35.9% | WIN |
| 2026-08-29 | VET | Overweight | -1.6% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | W | Underweight | +4.4% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | WLD | Underweight | -0.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | WLFI | Underweight | -4.2% | WIN |
| 2026-08-29 | XLM | Underweight | -2.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | XMR | Underweight | +10.4% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-29 | XRP | Underweight | -1.6% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-29 | ZEC | Overweight | +25.0% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | AAVE | Overweight | +1.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | ADA | Underweight | -0.6% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | ALGO | Underweight | +0.0% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | APE | Neutral | -1.2% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | APT | Underweight | +1.5% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | AR | Overweight | +22.4% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | ARB | Underweight | +42.7% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | ASTER | Underweight | +3.9% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | ATOM | Neutral | -3.9% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | AVAX | Neutral | -1.1% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | AXS | Underweight | -0.2% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | BCH | Neutral | -8.3% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | BNB | Neutral | +1.8% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | BTC | Overweight | -0.6% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | CC | Underweight | -4.0% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | CHZ | Underweight | -5.6% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | COMP | Neutral | +0.5% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | CRV | Overweight | +7.3% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | DOGE | Neutral | -4.0% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | DOT | Underweight | +1.8% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | DYDX | Underweight | +0.5% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | EIGEN | Neutral | -2.7% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | ENA | Overweight | -8.9% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | ENS | Underweight | -2.1% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | ETC | Neutral | -3.6% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | ETH | Overweight | -1.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | FET | Underweight | -5.5% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | FIL | Underweight | +8.2% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | GALA | Underweight | -2.2% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | GRT | Overweight | -4.6% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | HBAR | Neutral | +0.7% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | HYPE | Overweight | +0.8% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | ICP | Neutral | +1.3% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | IMX | Underweight | -4.9% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | INJ | Overweight | -12.4% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | JTO | Underweight | -22.9% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | JUP | Overweight | -11.3% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | KAS | Neutral | +0.7% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | LDO | Overweight | +7.4% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | LINK | Overweight | -1.6% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | LTC | Underweight | +2.8% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | M | Underweight | +2.3% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | MANA | Underweight | -1.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | MKR | Overweight | +0.6% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | MORPHO | Overweight | -0.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | NEAR | Overweight | +16.4% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | ONDO | Overweight | -4.1% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | OP | Underweight | +2.0% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | ORDI | Overweight | -4.3% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | POL | Underweight | -13.9% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | PYTH | Overweight | +9.3% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | RENDER | Overweight | -5.3% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | RUNE | Overweight | -7.0% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | S | Neutral | -3.4% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SAND | Underweight | -4.9% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | SEI | Neutral | -2.0% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | SKY | Neutral | -0.9% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | SNX | Underweight | -6.9% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | SOL | Neutral | -6.0% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | STRK | Underweight | +7.1% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | STX | Neutral | +4.0% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SUI | Underweight | -1.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | TAO | Neutral | -8.9% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | TIA | Neutral | -1.0% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | TON | Underweight | +0.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | UNI | Overweight | +30.8% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | VET | Overweight | -4.6% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | W | Overweight | +1.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | WLD | Overweight | -8.9% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-28 | WLFI | Underweight | -6.7% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | XLM | Neutral | -3.8% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | XMR | Overweight | +14.9% | WIN |
| 2026-08-28 | XRP | Underweight | -2.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-28 | ZEC | Underweight | +29.1% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | AAVE | Overweight | +3.1% | WIN |
| 2026-08-27 | ADA | Underweight | -0.9% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | AERO | Underweight | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | ALGO | Underweight | +0.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | APE | Underweight | -0.5% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | APT | Underweight | +1.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | AR | Overweight | +21.7% | WIN |
| 2026-08-27 | ARB | Underweight | +41.6% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | ASTER | Underweight | +0.2% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | ATOM | Underweight | -0.9% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | AVAX | Underweight | -1.3% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | AXS | Underweight | -0.5% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | BCH | Overweight | -8.9% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | BNB | Neutral | +1.3% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | BSV | Neutral | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | BTC | Overweight | +0.9% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | CAKE | Overweight | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | CC | Neutral | -7.9% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-27 | CFX | Neutral | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | CHZ | Underweight | -6.0% | WIN |
| 2026-08-27 | COMP | Neutral | -0.5% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | CRV | Overweight | +10.3% | WIN |
| 2026-08-27 | DASH | Neutral | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | DOGE | Neutral | -3.9% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-27 | DOT | Underweight | +0.7% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | DYDX | Underweight | -1.8% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | EIGEN | Neutral | -1.8% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | ENA | Overweight | +10.0% | WIN |
| 2026-08-27 | ENS | Overweight | -2.5% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | ETC | Overweight | -5.2% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | ETH | Overweight | -3.0% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | ETHFI | Overweight | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | FET | Overweight | -5.4% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | FIL | Underweight | +6.2% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | GALA | Underweight | -0.0% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | GRASS | Overweight | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | GRT | Underweight | -4.3% | WIN |
| 2026-08-27 | HBAR | Neutral | +0.6% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | HYPE | Overweight | +1.5% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | ICP | Neutral | +2.7% | flat ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | IMX | Overweight | -5.3% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | INJ | Overweight | -14.9% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | JST | Underweight | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | JUP | Overweight | -2.1% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | KAS | Underweight | +5.5% | LOSS |
| 2026-08-27 | KITE | Overweight | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | LDO | Neutral | +9.6% | flat ✗ |
| 2026-08-27 | LIT | Overweight | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | LTC | Underweight | +0.8% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | M | Underweight | -0.1% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | MANA | Underweight | -1.3% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | MKR | Underweight | -0.9% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | MON | Overweight | — | VOID |
| 2026-08-27 | MORPHO | Overweight | -0.4% | PUSH |
| 2026-08-27 | NEAR | Overweight | +18.0% | WIN |
| 2026-08-27 | ONDO | Neutral | -2.6% | flat ✓ |
Open calls
- 2026-08-31 · 97 calls · ⏳ settles 2026-09-07
- 2026-09-01 · 95 calls · ⏳ settles 2026-09-08
- 2026-09-05 · 76 calls · ⏳ settles 2026-09-12
Daily settlement reports
2026-09-06 · 2026-09-05 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23 · 2026-08-22 · 2026-08-21
How settlement works
Rule settle_v1: a verdict from day T is settled at T+7 days against BTC (BTC itself vs USD; grace to T+9 if a snapshot is missing). The scoreboard counts directional calls only: overweight wins if the coin beats BTC by more than 3.0%, loses if it lags by more than 3.0% — inside the band is a push, counted in neither. Neutral verdicts are no-calls and sit outside the win rate. All prices come from the archived reports themselves; settled rows are never edited; missing data settles as VOID.
CoinVerdict reports are AI-generated research information, not financial advice. Verdicts are opinions; settlements are facts.