FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL sits at $0.7075 with a 17.5% discount to its 200-day average
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-28 00:55 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.86 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6076 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo’s $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo’s $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.6076. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: FIL is 17.5% under SMA200 and down 12.7% over seven days. But RSI at 48.3 is middle-ground, not capitulation, and price is still 0.1% above SMA20; the wreckage may already be priced into a coin that has gained 4.3% over 30 days.
Leo’s $0.1% SMA20 cushion is a paper umbrella in a storm. The decisive structure is SMA50 15.6% below SMA200, with price also 2.2% under SMA50; a short bounce does not erase a long-term downtrend.
I think the bearish ruling leaves more upside unpriced: FIL is only 0.1% above SMA20, RSI is 48.3, and the 60-day low at $0.6076 is still intact. A move back toward $0.86 would represent a 17.8% recovery, while the 30-day result is already +4.3%.
The fastest failure is a squeeze against the crowded bearish read, but the fragile exhibit is the assumed floor at $0.6076. Fear & Greed at 73 and 58.0% long accounts could amplify a sharp reversal; prior calls were 4 WIN and 0 LOSS, which can encourage overconfidence rather than guarantee the next outcome.
Leo overreached by treating a 0.1% SMA20 edge as trend repair; Mara overreached only if she treats the 60-day floor as already broken. The deciding condition is whether FIL holds $0.6076 or breaks below it.
· crowded long accounts at 58.0%
· sharp rebound from $0.6076 support
· contracting MACD histogram reversing higher
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.86 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.6076, still 16.4% below spot, so the market hasn’t broken the floor. A contracting MACD histogram can turn before the moving averages do.
Leo, that $0.6076 floor is not support until price proves it can reclaim $0.72 territory; the 0.86 high is still 17.8% overhead. Your rebound thesis asks a weak chart to do all the work.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.6076, still 16.4% below spot, so the market hasn’t broken the floor. A contracting MACD histogram can turn before the moving averages do.
Leo, that $0.6076 floor is not support until price proves it can reclaim $0.72 territory; the 0.86 high is still 17.8% overhead. Your rebound thesis asks a weak chart to do all the work.
Leo, the crowd is not washed out: Fear & Greed is 73 and long accounts are 58.0%. With taker buy/sell at 0.96, the supposed rebound lacks confirmation from aggressive flow.
Mara’s case fits the tape, but I won’t invent a liquidity shock: the pack gives no macro funding or rate data. What it does show is a 7-day 12.7% slide against only 4.3% over 30 days, which favors continued fragility.
I rule bearish, and the decisive exhibit is the 15.6% SMA50-to-SMA200 bearish gap reinforced by price sitting 17.5% below SMA200. The call is invalidated by a sustained break above the 60-day high of $0.86, especially if RSI also recovers above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish. FIL is 17.5% below SMA200, while SMA50 sits 15.6% below SMA200; RSI at 48.3 offers no reversal impulse. The +0.001398 MACD histogram is contracting, and the 7-day loss is 12.7%.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Bearish. Fear & Greed at 73 and 58.0% long accounts show optimism is still crowded, while the 0.96 taker buy/sell ratio says aggressive demand is not leading. The 60-day high at $0.86 remains 17.8% away, leaving trapped upside-chasers exposed.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: Bearish. The supplied headline flow centers on a broad crypto pullback, while the more constructive Filecoin stories are scenario-driven or narrative-based rather than fresh operating catalysts. Broader market headlines about Kalshi and Ethena do not directly improve FIL’s near-term setup.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: Neutral to bearish. The data pack provides no fresh Filecoin token-economics, network-usage, revenue, or supply figures to support a fundamental re-rating. A data narrative has appeared in prior coverage, but the current price remains 17.5% below SMA200.
e453049da303f44d3cdeaa3a227992fd6861e10c398f33a36745fad138d64d56b460912c22e647ff99deef7428c2f0098da84f163350ba433a36d11ce82e7419Committed 2026-08-29T00:20:00+00:00 · 98 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23 · 2026-08-22