FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL trades at $0.6813 with RSI 44.4 and a bearish moving-average structure
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-30 00:58 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above the SMA20 area near $0.703 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6076 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.6076. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugly number: FIL is down 12.0% over seven days and sits 20.4% below its SMA200. But RSI at 44.4 is nowhere near capitulation, and the $0.6076 60-day low is still 12.0% beneath spot; the damage is visible, stale, and potentially ready for a reflex bounce.
Leo, that $0.6076 cushion is precisely the problem, not the rescue. FIL is already below SMA20 by 3.2% and SMA50 by 5.3%, with the negative MACD histogram expanding to -0.00344; a 12.0% gap to support is room to fall, not proof of exhaustion.
I think the bearish call has more room than the ruling admits: FIL is 20.8% below the 60-day high of $0.86, while greed at 69 leaves a crowded optimism pocket to unwind. The downside exhibit could extend toward the $0.6076 low before any durable repair.
The fastest failure is a reflex rebound from RSI 44.4, because that reading is weak but not oversold and spot remains 12.0% above $0.6076. The fragile exhibit is the assumption that an expanding MACD decline continues without a price-confirmed breakdown.
The bull side overreached by calling the damage stale without confirmation, while the bear side overreaches if it treats a 44.4 RSI as irrelevant. The deciding condition is whether FIL reclaims the SMA20 area near $0.703 or instead breaks $0.6076.
· reflex rebound from RSI 44.4
· broad crypto-market recovery
· support near $0.6076 holding
Invalidation: A sustained move above the SMA20 area near $0.703 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating the moving averages like concrete walls, but RSI 44.4 says sellers haven’t reached an extreme. A bounce can start long before $0.6076 is tested.
Leo, the trend doesn’t need an extreme RSI to keep bleeding; FIL is 20.4% below SMA200 and the 7d loss is already 12.0%. Your bounce thesis has no price confirmation.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the moving averages like concrete walls, but RSI 44.4 says sellers haven’t reached an extreme. A bounce can start long before $0.6076 is tested.
Leo, the trend doesn’t need an extreme RSI to keep bleeding; FIL is 20.4% below SMA200 and the 7d loss is already 12.0%. Your bounce thesis has no price confirmation.
I’m siding with the bear on crowding: Fear&Greed is 69, 55.4% of long accounts are long, and taker buy/sell is only 0.93. Optimism is leaning the wrong way while aggressive buying fails to dominate.
The broad pullback matters more than the project-building headlines. FIL’s 30d decline of 4.8% and 7d decline of 12.0% show liquidity is already withdrawing from the tape.
I rule for the bear side: FIL is bearish over a weeks horizon, decided by the aligned trend exhibit—price below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, with MACD histogram at -0.00344 and expanding. The ruling is invalidated by a sustained move back above $0.717, the approximate SMA20 implied by spot being 3.2% below it.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: price below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200; SMA50 15.9% below SMA200; expanding negative MACD histogram at -0.00344; 7d performance -12.0%. Conflicts: RSI 44.4 is not yet oversold, while price remains 12.0% above the 60d low of $0.6076. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed at 69 (Greed); 55.4% long accounts with L/S ratio 1.24; taker buy/sell at 0.93. Conflicts: only 1 StockTwits message was bullish and 0 bearish, but the sample is negligible; funding is unavailable. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The immediate FIL headline is a 4% drop amid a broad crypto-market pullback. The broader headlines offer construction narratives and bullish prediction scenarios, but none provides a concrete catalyst strong enough to counter the market-wide weakness.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Filecoin is still described as building despite being among projects down 95–99% from its all-time high. That supports a long-run survival narrative, but the data pack supplies no fresh adoption, revenue, token-supply, or network-usage figures to justify a near-term rerating.
1d451a751ac49b36d797175c606d83f00ac4923211b53b91ec6916f9df07615d0071e3de26d06e3c755183e93ee239d43345bcb211c72f3e329230375244b41bCommitted 2026-08-31T00:20:00+00:00 · 92 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
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