FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL sits at $0.7165 with RSI 44.8 and a bearish moving-average stack
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-01 00:33 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-09-05 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-09-01 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-31 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-30 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +8.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — +8.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — +6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.999 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6531 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.6531. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: FIL is 22.7% under its SMA200 and has lost 7.4% over 30 days. But RSI at 44.8 isn’t capitulation, MACD downside is contracting, and price is only 9.6% above the $0.6531 60-day low—this is a bruised spring, not fresh panic.
Leo, that $0.6531 floor is doing all the hopium’s heavy lifting, yet FIL remains below every major moving average and the SMA50 is 18.2% under the SMA200. A contracting MACD histogram of -0.001444 does not reverse a trend; it merely says the selloff is losing speed before the next shove.
I think the bearish call has more room than the ruling admits: FIL is 28.3% below the 60-day high, and a break of $0.6531 would expose how little support the chart has. The five WIN and zero LOSS underweight calls in the shown settled record reinforce the downside pattern.
The fastest failure is a reversal from the $0.6531 floor, because it is only 9.6% below current price and MACD weakness is contracting at -0.001444. If recovering network activity becomes real demand, the all-time-low headlines could mark exhaustion rather than continuation.
Leo overreached on RSI 44.8 as if it were capitulation; Mara overreaches only if she treats the floor as irrelevant. The deciding condition is whether FIL holds $0.6531 or breaks it decisively.
· support-driven rebound from $0.6531
· recovering network activity attracting demand
· broader crypto liquidity reversal
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.999 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, the crowd is already scared at Fear & Greed 27, and the price is barely above $0.6531. How much more bad news can this chart price in?
Leo, fear is cosmetic when 57.6% of long accounts still lean long and taker buy/sell is 0.89. That’s not washed-out conviction; it’s optimism wearing a raincoat.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the crowd is already scared at Fear & Greed 27, and the price is barely above $0.6531. How much more bad news can this chart price in?
Leo, fear is cosmetic when 57.6% of long accounts still lean long and taker buy/sell is 0.89. That’s not washed-out conviction; it’s optimism wearing a raincoat.
I’m with Mara on the flow tape: the 1.36 long/short ratio and sub-1.00 taker ratio favor continued supply. Funding is absent, so nobody gets to invent a squeeze narrative.
The macro tape says choppy August after forced selling, not a clean liquidity rescue. FIL’s 28.3% distance from the 60-day high leaves plenty of overhead air, while the $0.6531 low is the nearest hard test.
I rule for the bear side: underweight is the winning thesis, and the decisive exhibit is FIL’s 22.7% discount to SMA200 combined with a 0.89 taker buy/sell ratio. The ruling is overturned if FIL closes above $0.999, the 60-day high, with momentum no longer below its major averages.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
RSI is 44.8, while FIL trades 2.8% below SMA20, 5.6% below SMA50, and 22.7% below SMA200. The SMA50 sits 18.2% below SMA200; contracting MACD weakness is the only sign that downside momentum may be cooling.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear & Greed is 27, yet long accounts still lead at 57.6% with a 1.36 long/short ratio. Taker buy/sell is only 0.89, showing that fear has not fully cleared the crowd’s bullish bias.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Headlines emphasize an all-time-low narrative alongside recovering Filecoin network activity, while broader crypto news points to a choppy August after forced selling. The news flow offers a recovery angle, but no catalyst here visibly overpowers FIL’s damaged chart.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The recovery in Filecoin network activity is a constructive fundamental thread, but the data pack provides no quantified growth, revenue, utilization, or token-supply evidence. That leaves the recovery thesis unproven against a 28.3% gap below the 60-day high.
491084998eb19b9c2402fcccfe2f06d4ea4c89cdf059e4df7e87f01b942272de17a05f840206e04eacebcefa609c9830d9d348d2983cb8ad8c7220012e6658ecCommitted 2026-08-02T00:20:00+00:00 · 94 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-24