FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL at $0.7094 sits beneath a bearish moving-average stack as RSI stalls at 48.6
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-27 00:53 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned by a sustained move above $0.86 with RSI above 50 and expanding MACD.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6076 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that +0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that +0. Key support to defend sits near $0.6076. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: FIL is 17.4% below SMA200, and the 7d tape is down 3.6%. But price is still 0.3% above SMA20, the 30d return is +0.4%, and MACD remains positive at +0.003427—this looks like a bruised rebound digesting a broad-market pullback, not a fresh collapse.
Leo, that +0.003427 MACD histogram is contracting, so your supposed engine is sputtering. The decisive structure is the 15.6% SMA50-versus-SMA200 deficit, while FIL is 17.5% beneath the 60d high; a coin barely above SMA20 can still be trapped inside a larger downtrend.
I think the downside has more room than the ruling admits: FIL is already 17.5% below the $0.86 60d high, yet the $0.6076 low remains 16.7% below current price. The fastest repricing could target that low if the 0.84 taker buy/sell ratio persists while greed stays at 71.
The fragile exhibit is the crowd read: Fear & Greed at 71 and 56.2% long accounts can unwind quickly, but a rebound can also squeeze a crowded bearish chart. FIL holding above SMA20, currently a 0.3% premium, is the fastest way this call blows up before the larger averages matter.
I think Leo overreached by treating positive MACD at +0.003427 as strength despite contraction, while Mara overreaches if she assumes the $0.6076 low is inevitable. The deciding condition is whether FIL reclaims SMA50 or instead breaks the $0.6076 support.
· Broad crypto rebound
· SMA20 support at $0.7094 fails to hold
· Crowded long accounts unwind
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned by a sustained move above $0.86 with RSI above 50 and expanding MACD.
Mara, you’re treating the 60d high at $0.86 like a verdict. FIL is only 2.2% below SMA50, and the $0.6076 low is still 16.7% away—there’s room for the rebound thesis to breathe.
Leo, $0.86 is not a verdict; it’s overhead supply. At $0.7094, the market has already failed to reclaim SMA50, and a 48.6 RSI gives neither a momentum breakout nor oversold fuel.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the 60d high at $0.86 like a verdict. FIL is only 2.2% below SMA50, and the $0.6076 low is still 16.7% away—there’s room for the rebound thesis to breathe.
Leo, $0.86 is not a verdict; it’s overhead supply. At $0.7094, the market has already failed to reclaim SMA50, and a 48.6 RSI gives neither a momentum breakout nor oversold fuel.
I’m with Mara on the crowding: Fear & Greed at 71 and 56.2% long accounts coexist with a 0.84 taker buy/sell ratio. That is optimistic accounting paired with softer immediate demand, and no funding-rate data rescues the bull case.
The broad pullback headline matters, Leo. Until liquidity improves, a +0.4% 30d return against a -3.6% 7d slide reads like a fragile pause, not macro leadership.
I rule for the bears: FIL is underweight, and the decisive exhibit is the bearish moving-average structure—SMA50 sits 15.6% below SMA200 while price is 17.4% below SMA200. The call is invalidated by a sustained reclaim above $0.86, the 60d high, or by RSI breaking decisively above 50 alongside expanding MACD momentum.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. FIL is 17.4% below SMA200, with SMA50 15.6% below SMA200; RSI(14) at 48.6 and a contracting MACD histogram of +0.003427 reinforce fading momentum. Conflict: price is 0.3% above SMA20 and 30d performance is +0.4%; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Fear & Greed is elevated at 71, long accounts lead at 56.2% with an L/S ratio of 1.28, while taker buy/sell is only 0.84—greed is leaning into weaker aggressive demand. Conflict: StockTwits supplied no messages; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The headline mix is a tug-of-war: CoinMarketCap reports a 4% drop during a broad crypto pullback, while Coinpedia and CryptoRank tout a 27% rebound tied to the data narrative. The broader tape offers no clean FIL catalyst: SEC custody-rule headlines are regulatory noise, and Nvidia’s strong outlook is an indirect risk-appetite support rather than a Filecoin-specific driver.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The data pack provides no fresh Filecoin revenue, storage-demand, token-supply, or network-usage figures. The data narrative has produced a reported 27% rebound, but that headline is not enough to offset FIL’s 17.4% discount to SMA200 or establish durable fundamental momentum.
5acc0e0d1008118b7d1df221d7ce6a96a4f33dd8989788fa37c99c9055107b6e64bb1ee510b85abc06eb9d0328d74bef4839ac43e76e5a63e96f0ad2d0a0301eCommitted 2026-08-28T00:20:00+00:00 · 93 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23 · 2026-08-22