FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL’s bearish structure persists at $0.7207, with RSI 40.7 and MACD deterioration
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-25 00:25 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +8.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — +8.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — +6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned if FIL sustains a move above $0.7600 and RSI reclaims 50.. Cautious read: a break below $0.668 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo’s $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo’s $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.668. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number—FIL sits 24.5% below its SMA200 and the MACD histogram is expanding at -0.003294. But RSI at 40.7 is bruised, not capitulated, while the 60-day low at $0.668 is only 7.8% below; that makes the damage look stale and potentially primed for a snapback.
Leo’s $0.668 floor is exactly the hopium trap: FIL is already below every major moving average, including SMA20 by 5.2% and SMA50 by 5.8%. RSI at 40.7 does not invalidate a trend, and an expanding negative MACD says sellers are still tightening the vise.
· Relief rally from fearful sentiment at 27
· Break above $0.7600 forcing short-covering
· Broad altcoin risk-off reversal
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned if FIL sustains a move above $0.7600 and RSI reclaims 50.
Mara, you’re treating $0.668 as inevitable when price is only $0.7207 and the 7-day loss is just 3.8%. A small catalyst can turn this compressed spring.
Leo, compression isn’t support. Taker flow is decisively defensive at 0.82, and the 30-day decline is still -2.1%—your spring has no visible trigger.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating $0.668 as inevitable when price is only $0.7207 and the 7-day loss is just 3.8%. A small catalyst can turn this compressed spring.
Leo, compression isn’t support. Taker flow is decisively defensive at 0.82, and the 30-day decline is still -2.1%—your spring has no visible trigger.
Leo, the crowd isn’t washed out: 53.8% of long accounts and an L/S ratio of 1.16 leave enough optimistic inventory to sell into any bounce. Mara, that is positioning evidence, not proof of a funding squeeze; funding wasn’t provided.
Theo’s distinction matters. On a broad altcoin risk-off day, FIL’s 2.8% reported decline fits a liquidity regime where weak charts usually stay weak until the tape changes.
I award the ruling to the bears, based on the single decisive exhibit: FIL is 24.5% below its SMA200 while the MACD histogram expands negatively at -0.003294. I invalidate this verdict on a sustained move above the $0.7600 area accompanied by RSI reclaiming 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: price below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200; bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure; expanding negative MACD histogram at -0.003294; RSI 40.7; 60-day range levels. Conflicts: RSI is not yet oversold, leaving room for a relief bounce. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear & Greed at 27, taker buy/sell at 0.82, and only modest long-account dominance at 53.8% with an L/S ratio of 1.16. Conflicts: long accounts still outnumber shorts. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh here: the relevant headline is risk-off, with FIL declining 2.8% during a broad altcoin selloff. The remaining FIL stories are speculative 2026 prediction pieces, not catalysts with measurable execution behind them.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand here: the pack supplies no new Filecoin supply, usage, revenue, or network-growth figures. That leaves the fundamental case unable to offset the chart’s 24.5% discount to the SMA200.
c6106aef19170c0953bafa542170198dce36f9189775752b333305aecd00d5daa037d0259b96601fe6cc56026a684ecae80849e922b70cc8a322141261edc9f8Committed 2026-07-26T00:20:00+00:00 · 52 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-24