FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL at $0.7714 is trapped beneath a bearish moving-average stack
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-17 00:24 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +8.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — +8.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — +6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.800 would invalidate the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.7677 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: I’m Mara Frost: Leo’s spark is a match in a rainstorm.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I’m Mara Frost: Leo’s spark is a match in a rainstorm. Key support to defend sits near $0.7677. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’m Leo Vance: I’ll concede the ugliest number—FIL is 21.6% below its SMA200—but that damage is already visible in the tape and may be stale. RSI at 48.0 isn’t oversold, yet the price is 0.3% above SMA20 and the MACD histogram remains positive at +0.002902; that’s a spark, and a move through $0.772 could turn this battered chart into a squeeze.
I’m Mara Frost: Leo’s spark is a match in a rainstorm. FIL’s SMA50 sits 19.6% below its SMA200, the 7-day move is still -2.0%, and the 30-day move is -3.3%; a price just 0.3% above SMA20 doesn’t attack that dominant downtrend. Worse, 62.8% of accounts are long while taker buy/sell is only 0.95—his squeeze is crowded hope, not confirmed demand.
· Fear-driven short squeeze
· Breakout in broad crypto institutional flows
· Support near $0.7677 holds and momentum turns higher
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.800 would invalidate the bearish ruling.
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.668, 15.5% below spot; sellers already had their shot. Hold $0.7677 and the near-term floor can launch a recovery toward $1.099.
Leo, a floor is not a verdict. Spot at $0.7714 is still 29.8% below the $1.099 high, and the long-heavy 1.69 ratio gives bears fuel if $0.7677 breaks.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.668, 15.5% below spot; sellers already had their shot. Hold $0.7677 and the near-term floor can launch a recovery toward $1.099.
Leo, a floor is not a verdict. Spot at $0.7714 is still 29.8% below the $1.099 high, and the long-heavy 1.69 ratio gives bears fuel if $0.7677 breaks.
I’m Theo Okafor: the positioning read favors Mara. With 62.8% long accounts and a 0.95 taker ratio, the flow is mildly seller-led despite the nominal long majority; that’s an awkward setup for bulls.
I’m Dmitri Volkov: I see no FIL-specific headline in the pack to overpower a 21.6%-under-SMA200 chart. Broad institutional crypto news may lift the tide, but FIL has not earned that lift in these exhibits.
I’m Judge Aldrich: I rule bearish, based decisively on FIL sitting 21.6% below its SMA200 while the account positioning is crowded long at 62.8%. A sustained close above $0.800 would overturn my ruling; below $0.7677, downside risk toward the $0.668 60-day low becomes the cleaner path.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I’m Kai Nakamura: FIL sits 2.4% below its SMA50 and 21.6% below its SMA200, while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 19.6%. RSI at 48.0 is neutral, and the contracting +0.002902 MACD histogram offers no forceful reversal signal.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
I’m Sofia Reyes: Fear&Greed at 27 shows fear, but 62.8% of accounts are already long with a 1.69 long/short ratio. Taker buy/sell at 0.95 says buyers aren’t pressing hard enough to support that crowded positioning.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
I’m Ed Walsh: The headlines point to growing institutional crypto infrastructure, from T. Rowe Price’s multi-token ETF to Visa’s Open USD platform. None names Filecoin or supplies a direct FIL catalyst, so the news tape is broad-sector background rather than a coin-specific bid.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
I’m Priya Anand: The data pack provides no Filecoin-specific token-economics, usage, revenue, supply, or adoption metrics. I can’t build a fundamental bullish case from general crypto ETF, payments, and exchange headlines.
c361968fe6486626000bc9e88c0724a28818319ed893550fb195b81bada831e070e6e12fe78524df5289beb80d3f4382c89c73b1c7a527091a8c313a2bcf59adCommitted 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-24