FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL’s 0.2% edge above the SMA50 cannot hide a 20.0% gap below the SMA200
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-22 09:04 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +8.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — +8.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — +6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: A sustained close above 0.7806 accompanied by RSI above 55 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.668 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your “spark” has not moved the structure: FIL is down 2.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your “spark” has not moved the structure: FIL is down 2. Key support to defend sits near $0.668. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, Mara: FIL is still 20.0% below the SMA200. But at 0.7729, price has reclaimed 0.1% above the SMA20 and 0.2% above the SMA50, while the MACD histogram is expanding at +0.0008509. That is a spark under the floor—short-term sellers may already be paid, especially with Fear&Greed at just 33.
Leo, your “spark” has not moved the structure: FIL is down 2.0% over 7 days and 1.8% over 30 days, and the SMA50 remains 20.2% below the SMA200. The 0.1% and 0.2% moving-average edges are statistical confetti, not a reversal; the 1.099 60-day high is still 29.7% away.
· fear-driven altcoin rebound
· broad crypto rally extension
· short squeeze despite balanced positioning
Invalidation: A sustained close above 0.7806 accompanied by RSI above 55 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Leo, RSI 50.6 is neutral, not bullish. Show me a breakout above 0.7806 before calling a rebound anything more than noise.
Mara, the daily high already printed 0.7806 and MACD is expanding. With Fear&Greed at 33, the crowd is hardly euphoric enough to make this a classic blow-off trap.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, RSI 50.6 is neutral, not bullish. Show me a breakout above 0.7806 before calling a rebound anything more than noise.
Mara, the daily high already printed 0.7806 and MACD is expanding. With Fear&Greed at 33, the crowd is hardly euphoric enough to make this a classic blow-off trap.
Leo, the positioning tape backs neither hero: long accounts are 49.3%, L/S is 0.97, and taker buy/sell is 1.00. There is no funding data, so nobody gets to invent squeeze fuel.
And the macro tide is not friendly, Leo. Bitcoin is below $66,000 ahead of Alphabet earnings, while a $1 million exploit headline raises the cost of holding thin altcoin risk.
I rule for the bears, and the single decisive exhibit is FIL’s 20.0% discount to the SMA200 alongside a 20.2% bearish SMA50-versus-SMA200 structure. The near-term MACD improvement is too small to overturn that trend. My ruling is invalidated by a sustained close above 0.7806 with RSI above 55.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Kai Nakamura sees price at 0.7729 only 0.1% above SMA20 and 0.2% above SMA50, while the SMA50 sits 20.2% below the SMA200 and price remains 20.0% under the SMA200. MACD histogram is expanding at +0.0008509, but RSI 50.6 and the 7d/30d losses of 2.0% and 1.8% keep the rebound tactical. Evidence families: moving-average structure, momentum, RSI, multi-period returns. Conflicts: expanding positive MACD versus bearish long-term averages and negative returns. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish-to-neutral. Sofia Reyes notes Fear&Greed at 33 and only 49.3% long accounts, with an L/S ratio of 0.97 and taker buy/sell at 1.00—there is no crowded-long fuel for a clean squeeze. Fear can support a bounce, but the positioning data does not confirm aggressive dip-buying. Evidence families: Fear&Greed, account positioning, taker flow. Conflicts: fearful sentiment can become contrarian support, while flows are balanced rather than decisively bullish. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh reads the news as a broad crypto-rally impulse, not a FIL-specific catalyst: one headline cites a 4.45% rise, while the broader tape includes Bitcoin below $66,000 and traders awaiting Alphabet earnings. The $1 million exploit that reportedly drained Balance’s bitcoin vaults adds a risk-off undertone to an already fragile altcoin backdrop.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand finds no substantive token-economics or network-fundamental evidence in the data pack. The available Filecoin coverage is dominated by price indexes, predictions, and rally headlines, so the fundamental case cannot outweigh FIL’s 20.0% discount to the SMA200.
ddc3e8a24bf297d0a888bc1a9c75dcc88a3e23dc6faec8e12454998e3aeeea20d60befb007b8b2c9bb2f3e860a595495bb4427a42c1d8f8851947ca5b9c4caf9Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 98 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-24