FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL’s 44.9 RSI cannot offset a 21.3% discount to its SMA200
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-15 00:51 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned if FIL sustains a breakout above 0.832, the 60-day high, with RSI recovering above 50.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6531 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that 0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that 0. Key support to defend sits near $0.6531. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugly number: FIL sits 21.3% below its SMA200, with 30-day performance down 10.0%. But RSI at 44.9 is not a panic crater, MACD is contracting, and the price has reclaimed 0.69 after printing 0.6789; the market may have already digested the stale downtrend.
Leo, that 0.69 reclaim is a one-day postcard, not a trend reversal. FIL remains 5.9% below SMA50, 16.8% beneath the 60-day high of 0.832, and takers are selling at 0.84; calling a 2.156% bounce a reset is hopium wearing a price label.
· reflex rally from 0.6531 support
· contracting negative MACD
· generic crypto-policy catalyst
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned if FIL sustains a breakout above 0.832, the 60-day high, with RSI recovering above 50.
Mara, the 60-day low is only 0.6531, just 5.9% below spot at 0.6922. That compressed downside matters when MACD is improving.
It matters only if support holds, Leo. A 5.9% air gap to the low is hardly a fortress, especially with price below every major average and 7-day returns at -2.5%.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60-day low is only 0.6531, just 5.9% below spot at 0.6922. That compressed downside matters when MACD is improving.
It matters only if support holds, Leo. A 5.9% air gap to the low is hardly a fortress, especially with price below every major average and 7-day returns at -2.5%.
Leo, fear at 34 is real, but the flow tape is not contrarian gold: taker buy/sell is 0.84 while long accounts still lead at 54.6%. Fear plus residual long bias can unwind together.
And neither of you has a liquidity catalyst in this pack. Generic White House crypto headlines do not repair FIL’s 16.3% bearish SMA50-versus-SMA200 spread.
I rule for the bears: underweight is the winning side, and the decisive exhibit is FIL’s bearish moving-average structure—price is 21.3% below SMA200 while SMA50 is 16.3% below it. The call is invalidated by a sustained move above the 60-day high at 0.832 or a decisive RSI recovery above 50 alongside that breakout.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Bearish. FIL trades 1.3% below SMA20, 5.9% below SMA50, and 21.3% below SMA200; the SMA50 sits 16.3% under the SMA200. RSI is 44.9 and MACD histogram is still negative at -0.0001678, though contracting. Evidence families: moving averages, RSI, MACD, trend returns, support/resistance. Conflicts: MACD contraction and the 2.156% 24h bounce. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Bearish. Fear&Greed is 34, taker buy/sell is 0.84, and only 54.6% of long accounts are bullish despite a 1.21 long/short ratio. That is fear with a mild long tilt, not a clean capitulation reset. Evidence families: fear gauge, account skew, taker flow, social activity. Conflicts: long accounts exceed shorts. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Neutral to bearish. The headline set offers no confirmed FIL-specific catalyst; it is dominated by generic crypto-policy stories and a warning that Infura IPFS shutdown affects Filecoin users on August 15. The absence of funding data and the empty StockTwits sample leave no reliable bullish news impulse.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Bearish. The concrete FIL-specific fundamental headline is operational risk around Infura IPFS access on August 15, while the supplied pack gives no fresh adoption, revenue, token-burn, or supply figures to counter it. The bullish 2026 prediction headline is promotional framing, not measured evidence.
45bf595c9553bb1903af2cdeb601cc2a3cf552d1c64c7b8ec1d3f85492a6c440b9992f9aaddcb66d097da88829da3966f8938204256939eecd449461ccbccfffCommitted 2026-08-16T00:20:00+00:00 · 96 rulings that day · Check the chain
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