FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL’s 0.7165 rebound sits beneath a -16.6% SMA200 gap
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-26 00:49 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated if FIL reclaims and sustains above 0.86, the 60-day high.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6076 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Mara: Leo’s “base” is built on the weakest possible beam.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Mara: Leo’s “base” is built on the weakest possible beam. Key support to defend sits near $0.6076. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
Leo: I’ll concede the ugly number: FIL sits 16.6% under its SMA200 and the SMA50 trails it by 15.5%. But price is 1.5% above SMA20, up 6.4% in seven days and 3.3% over 30 days; that’s a base trying to turn, while the 0.6076 low leaves substantial air beneath the market.
Mara: Leo’s “base” is built on the weakest possible beam. FIL is still below SMA50 and SMA200, the MACD histogram is contracting at +0.005921, and taker buy/sell is 0.80; a 6.4% bounce does not erase a 15.5% bearish moving-average spread.
· short-covering rebound from 0.6076
· MACD expansion after contraction
· broad liquidity improvement
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated if FIL reclaims and sustains above 0.86, the 60-day high.
Mara, you’re treating the rear-view mirror as a forecast. RSI 49.7 isn’t overheated, and the market has already climbed from the 0.6076 60-day low.
Leo, the rear-view mirror is the trend. The 0.86 60-day high remains 16.7% away, and today’s -5.54% 24-hour move says the bounce has no reliable follow-through.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the rear-view mirror as a forecast. RSI 49.7 isn’t overheated, and the market has already climbed from the 0.6076 60-day low.
Leo, the rear-view mirror is the trend. The 0.86 60-day high remains 16.7% away, and today’s -5.54% 24-hour move says the bounce has no reliable follow-through.
Leo, the crowd isn’t confirming your turn: 56.4% of long accounts and an L/S ratio of 1.29 meet a taker ratio of just 0.80. That is optimistic exposure absorbing weak demand, not clean accumulation.
Mara’s macro case gets help from the tape, but there’s no quantified liquidity shock in this pack. I’d still note that FIL remains 16.6% below SMA200, so the market has not earned a regime-change label.
I rule for the bear side: underweight wins, decided by the bearish moving-average structure—FIL is 16.6% below SMA200 while SMA50 is 15.5% below it. The ruling flips if FIL reclaims 0.86, the 60-day high, and sustains that level.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Bearish. Kai Nakamura sees FIL at 0.7165, only 1.5% above SMA20 but 1.3% below SMA50 and 16.6% below SMA200; the SMA50/SMA200 spread is -15.5%. RSI 49.7 and a contracting +0.005921 MACD histogram show no forceful trend reversal. Direction: bearish; evidence families: moving averages, momentum, support/resistance; conflicts: 7d +6.4% and 30d +3.3%; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Bearish. Sofia Reyes reads Fear&Greed at 65, long accounts at 56.4% with an L/S ratio of 1.29, while taker buy/sell is only 0.80. The crowd leans optimistic as aggressive buying fails to confirm it. Direction: bearish; evidence families: Fear&Greed, account skew, taker flow; conflicts: recent 7d gain of 6.4%; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh finds no decisive FIL-specific catalyst in the headlines: the pack is dominated by price-prediction and rebound narratives, alongside a report of a 13.5% drop in a soft market. Broader blockchain-bank headlines do not establish incremental Filecoin demand.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand finds no fresh token-economics, usage, revenue, or network-growth figures in the pack to justify a fundamental rerating. The bullish data narrative is therefore headline color, not quantified fundamental evidence.
a61669fc14a50b6a623cced0d0aa04c3971cc8ce009f741b46703a33c27c64b9650479c8d662b50f512b6a5ccfb1242fb411c562a0dabecc0eed582b87132f9fCommitted 2026-08-27T00:20:00+00:00 · 93 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23 · 2026-08-22