FIL / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FIL’s 0.688 bounce is fighting a 19.3% gap below its 200-day average
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-09-01 00:58 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Neutral — -13.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a daily close above 0.86, the 60-day high.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6076 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo’s “fading sellers” rests on a tiny one-day candle while the larger tape remains down 3.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo’s “fading sellers” rests on a tiny one-day candle while the larger tape remains down 3. Key support to defend sits near $0.6076. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: FIL is 19.3% under its SMA200, with the 50-day average trailing the 200-day by 16.1%. But the MACD histogram is contracting, RSI is only 46.7, and today’s 3.133% lift from 0.682 to 0.6877 says the sellers’ punch is fading; the 0.6076 low is still 13.2% below. The bear structure is real, but much of that damage is already painted on the chart.
Leo’s “fading sellers” rests on a tiny one-day candle while the larger tape remains down 3.4% in seven days and 4.3% in 30. The key number, -19.3% versus SMA200, is not stale—it is proof FIL remains structurally weak, and the 0.86 60-day high sits 20.0% away. A contracting MACD histogram without a positive reading is not a reversal; it is a quieter alarm.
· sharp crypto-wide liquidity rebound
· short-term reversal above 0.6878
· long-account crowding unwinds
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a daily close above 0.86, the 60-day high.
Mara, you’re treating distance from SMA200 as destiny. RSI 46.7 isn’t capitulation, and a 3.133% daily rebound with MACD contraction can mark the first crack in that downtrend.
Leo, a rebound that leaves price 3.9% below SMA50 and 19.3% below SMA200 is a short covering story until proven otherwise. The 0.6878 high barely exceeded the 0.688 spot quote—hardly a breakout.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating distance from SMA200 as destiny. RSI 46.7 isn’t capitulation, and a 3.133% daily rebound with MACD contraction can mark the first crack in that downtrend.
Leo, a rebound that leaves price 3.9% below SMA50 and 19.3% below SMA200 is a short covering story until proven otherwise. The 0.6878 high barely exceeded the 0.688 spot quote—hardly a breakout.
I’m with Mara on the crowd mechanics: 53.8% of long accounts and an L/S ratio of 1.16 lean long, while taker buy/sell is only 0.98. Funding is absent, so I won’t invent a crowding premium, but the available flow data do not validate the bull case.
The macro tape already delivered a broad crypto pullback, and FIL’s 30-day loss is 4.3%. Until liquidity lifts the whole complex, a token sitting 20.0% below its 60-day high has no independent evidence of escape velocity.
I rule for the bear side: underweight is the winning thesis, driven decisively by FIL sitting 19.3% below SMA200 while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 16.1%. The 0.6076 support is the near-term fault line; a daily close above 0.86 would overturn my ruling by reclaiming the 60-day high.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: price below SMA20 by 2.0%, below SMA50 by 3.9%, below SMA200 by 19.3%; bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure at -16.1%; RSI 46.7; MACD histogram -0.004137, contracting. Conflicts: the 24h gain is 3.133% and price sits 13.2% above the 60-day low at 0.6076. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed at 69 (Greed), 53.8% long accounts, L/S ratio 1.16, taker buy/sell at 0.98. Conflicts: StockTwits is non-directional with 0 bullish and 0 bearish tags across 2 messages; funding is unavailable. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The actionable headline is the reported 4% Filecoin drop during a broad crypto pullback; that frames FIL as a market-beta casualty, not a coin-specific recovery story. The 2026 prediction headlines offer bullish scenarios, but they are promotional forecasts rather than verified catalysts.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The pack supplies no fresh token-economics, storage-demand, network-usage, or supply data. I therefore find no fundamental exhibit strong enough to offset FIL trading 19.3% below its SMA200 and down 4.3% over 30 days.
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2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23