DYDX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
DYDX at $0.1177 sits above SMA20 but still 3.7% below SMA200
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-28 01:26 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -10.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -10.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -5.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -11.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -10.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — +3.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -8.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -10.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -11.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — +2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of $0.245, the 60-day high.. Cautious read: a break below $0.0953 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: I’m Mara Frost: Leo calls a 4.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I’m Mara Frost: Leo calls a 4. Key support to defend sits near $0.0953. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’m Leo Vance, colleagues: the bear’s strongest number is the 4.5% SMA50-versus-SMA200 gap, but that’s yesterday’s wreckage baked into the chart, not fresh selling pressure. Price has reclaimed SMA20 by 4.3%, sits 0.8% above SMA50, and the 30-day tape is up 6.8%—the engine is coughing, not dead.
I’m Mara Frost: Leo calls a 4.3% SMA20 reclaim a revival while ignoring that DYDX remains 3.7% under SMA200 and 52.0% below the 60-day high of $0.245. His 30-day +6.8% is a bounce inside a larger crater, and the contracting +0.001247 MACD histogram says even that bounce is losing fuel.
I’m arguing the bearish thesis has more room than the ruling admits: DYDX is still 52.0% below the $0.245 60-day high, while greed is 73 and long accounts are 64.0%. The unresolved downside gap toward the $0.0953 low is larger than the ruling’s immediate framing.
I’m focused on the fastest failure: the bearish moving-average exhibit could be stale if the rebound persists. Price is already 4.3% above SMA20 and 0.8% above SMA50, while RSI is 52.6; a break above $0.245 would make the call’s core chart evidence fragile.
I’m the neutral desk: Leo overreached by treating +6.8% over 30 days as trend repair, while Mara overreaches if she treats a 7d loss of 4.2% as a fresh collapse. The deciding condition is whether price regains $0.245 or instead loses the $0.0953 support reference.
· Arcus adoption exceeds the current narrative evidence
· Rebound above SMA50 strengthens
· SMA50/SMA200 bearish gap reverses
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of $0.245, the 60-day high.
Mara, the $0.0953 low is still 23.5% below spot, so the market has already rejected the breakdown zone; RSI at 52.6 gives the rebound room.
Leo, that 23.5% air pocket is precisely the danger, not proof of support. Greed at 73 and 64.0% long accounts leave a crowded audience waiting for the same rescue candle.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the $0.0953 low is still 23.5% below spot, so the market has already rejected the breakdown zone; RSI at 52.6 gives the rebound room.
Leo, that 23.5% air pocket is precisely the danger, not proof of support. Greed at 73 and 64.0% long accounts leave a crowded audience waiting for the same rescue candle.
I’m Theo Okafor: taker buy/sell at 1.05 is barely constructive beside the 1.77 L/S ratio. The crowd is leaning long without aggressive demand—an elegant recipe for disappointment.
I’m Dmitri Volkov: I see no liquidity evidence in this pack to overpower the bearish SMA structure. A token 52.0% below its 60-day high is not macro resilience; it’s a chart asking for proof.
I’m Judge Aldrich: the bearish side wins, and the decisive exhibit is the 4.5% SMA50-below-SMA200 structure reinforced by price still 3.7% under SMA200. The call is overturned if DYDX reclaims and holds above the 60-day high-derived resistance zone at $0.245 or if the moving-average structure turns positive.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I’m Kai Nakamura: Direction bearish. Evidence families: moving-average structure, RSI/MACD, multi-horizon returns, support/resistance. DYDX is 4.3% above SMA20 and 0.8% above SMA50, but 3.7% below SMA200; SMA50 trails SMA200 by 4.5%, while MACD histogram at +0.001247 is contracting. Conflicts: RSI is neutral at 52.6 and 30d performance is +6.8%, against a 7d decline of 4.2% and the bearish long-term averages. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
I’m Sofia Reyes: Direction bearish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed, account skew, long/short ratio, taker flow. Greed is elevated at 73, long accounts lead at 64.0% with a 1.77 L/S ratio, and taker buy/sell is only 1.05—more hopeful than forceful. Conflict: the sample of StockTwits data is just 1 message, tagged neither bullish nor bearish. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
I’m Ed Walsh: The Arcus launch links dYdX to stock-token perpetuals on Robinhood Chain, but the pack offers no adoption, volume, revenue, or token-demand figures. The headline is constructive narrative, not yet measurable fundamental confirmation; broader headlines about Kalshi and Ethena do not directly strengthen DYDX.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
I’m Priya Anand: The Arcus rebrand may expand dYdX’s product footprint, yet the data pack supplies no token-supply, unlock, fee, revenue, or valuation metrics. Fundamental evidence is therefore narrative-positive but numerically unproven.
dc1852923df2851082bdf4bdf84aff2495c05b17b2e3cf32e171df88c7ecc391b460912c22e647ff99deef7428c2f0098da84f163350ba433a36d11ce82e7419Committed 2026-08-29T00:20:00+00:00 · 98 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23