DYDX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
A 73 Greed reading meets a bearish moving-average structure as DYDX trades at $0.11975
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-24 01:42 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -10.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -10.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -5.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -11.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -10.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — +3.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -8.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -10.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -11.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — +2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above the $0.245 60-day high overturns the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.0953 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that 19.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that 19. Key support to defend sits near $0.0953. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: DYDX is still 2.0% below SMA200 and the 60-day high at $0.245 is a distant mountain. But the tape has already climbed 19.6% in seven days, sits 6.6% above SMA20, and RSI at 55.1 isn’t overheated; that looks like a rebound with room, not a corpse waiting for a marker.
Leo, that 19.6% is precisely the number that makes your case fragile: a sharp bounce has run into a 0.87 taker buy/sell ratio and a contracting MACD histogram. Price remains below SMA200, while 64.6% longs and Fear&Greed at 73 show the crowd is already leaning into the story.
I think the bullish case has more room than the ruling admits: a 19.6% seven-day advance with RSI only 55.1 leaves substantial recovery potential toward the $0.245 60-day high. The underweight call is fragile if price keeps holding above the $0.1197 session low and SMA20 remains supportive.
The fastest failure point is the crowding exhibit: Fear&Greed is 73, 64.6% of accounts are long, and taker buy/sell is 0.87. If the rebound loses $0.1197, those optimistic accounts can become the fuel for a deeper unwind.
Leo overreached by treating a 19.6% seven-day burst as trend repair; Mara overreached only if she treats lagging averages as an immediate collapse signal. The deciding condition is whether DYDX holds $0.1197 or breaks it while remaining below SMA200.
· 19.6% seven-day momentum continuation
· Arcus product adoption surprise
· RSI 55.1 leaves room for further rebound
Invalidation: A sustained move above the $0.245 60-day high overturns the bearish ruling.
Leo, you’re calling $0.11975 healthy because it cleared SMA20, but the broader structure still has SMA50 3.3% below SMA200. That isn’t repaired trend; it’s a small green patch on a damaged chart.
Mara, the market doesn’t need a perfect moving-average cross to rally. RSI 55.1 and the 7-day gain of 19.6% say momentum has turned before the lagging averages can catch up.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, you’re calling $0.11975 healthy because it cleared SMA20, but the broader structure still has SMA50 3.3% below SMA200. That isn’t repaired trend; it’s a small green patch on a damaged chart.
Mara, the market doesn’t need a perfect moving-average cross to rally. RSI 55.1 and the 7-day gain of 19.6% say momentum has turned before the lagging averages can catch up.
Leo, I’m with the crowd only on paper: 64.6% long accounts and an L/S ratio of 1.83 are crowded, while taker buy/sell at 0.87 says execution flow is not confirming the enthusiasm. Funding is absent, so nobody gets to invent a squeeze.
Both of you are overfitting the token chart. DYDX is 51.1% below its 60-day high at $0.245, and the data pack gives no strong macro liquidity catalyst; the rebound has to survive a hostile backdrop on its own.
I rule for the bear side: DYDX is underweight because the decisive exhibit is the combination of price 2.0% below SMA200 and SMA50 3.3% below SMA200, reinforced by 64.6% long accounts against a 0.87 taker buy/sell ratio. My ruling is overturned by a sustained move above $0.245, the 60-day high.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
RSI(14) is 55.1 and price sits 6.6% above SMA20, but DYDX remains 2.0% below SMA200 while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 3.3%. The 7-day surge is 19.6%, yet MACD histogram is contracting; I call the setup bearish with a vulnerable rebound.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Greed is elevated at 73, with 64.6% of long accounts and an L/S ratio of 1.83. Taker buy/sell is only 0.87, so bullish crowding is fighting weaker aggressive demand; sentiment is bearish despite recent price strength.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The Arcus launch and Robinhood Chain coverage are constructive headlines, but the pack offers no quantified adoption, revenue, or token-demand impact. Broader crypto headlines are macro- and regulatory-focused rather than DYDX-specific, leaving the news impulse thin.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The data pack gives no token-supply, unlock, revenue, fee, or valuation figures. Arcus provides a product narrative, but without measurable economics I cannot make fundamentals carry a months-long bullish verdict.
087687c449e5a098ee537516d35a53ab99cd1839e1f28417a2d349235028c88700f6f5bb5b065969cc8e7a7da551e81002c3c601fccb1b62d647adc3d619d114Committed 2026-08-25T00:20:00+00:00 · 87 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-23