DYDX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
DYDX at $0.11009 sits just 3.6% above its 60-day low as fear deepens
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-13 01:26 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +3.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -8.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -10.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -11.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — +2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A close above $0.1114 accompanied by RSI above 50 overturns the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1062 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your spring is resting on a floor that has barely held: the price is already 55.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your spring is resting on a floor that has barely held: the price is already 55. Key support to defend sits near $0.1062. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugly number: DYDX is 12.6% below SMA50, with RSI at 39.2 and the token only 3.6% above $0.1062. But that is a stressed spring, not a fresh breakdown; SMA50 still sits 1.6% above SMA200, MACD remains positive at +0.0003471, and Arcus gives the ecosystem a real catalyst. I also own the record: my recent underweight calls on July 31 lost 3.2% versus BTC, so a crowded fear print can absolutely snap back.
Leo, your spring is resting on a floor that has barely held: the price is already 55.1% below the 60-day high and down 8.3% over 30 days. A positive MACD histogram of +0.0003471 is contracting, while taker buy/sell at 0.80 and 60.2% long accounts show that fear has not cleared the crowd. The July 31 underweight LOSS at -3.2% proves the call can fail, but it does not repair today’s broken short-term structure.
· Support-hold relief squeeze
· Positive MACD and bullish MA structure
· Arcus-driven ecosystem repricing
Invalidation: A close above $0.1114 accompanied by RSI above 50 overturns the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating $0.1062 like a trapdoor, but it’s also the clearest defined support in the pack. RSI 39.2 is washed enough that one catalyst-driven bid can turn this from drift into recoil.
Leo, recoil is not reversal. Price remains 3.7% below SMA20 and 11.2% below SMA200, while the 7-day trend is still down 4.1%.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(5)
Mara, you’re treating $0.1062 like a trapdoor, but it’s also the clearest defined support in the pack. RSI 39.2 is washed enough that one catalyst-driven bid can turn this from drift into recoil.
Leo, recoil is not reversal. Price remains 3.7% below SMA20 and 11.2% below SMA200, while the 7-day trend is still down 4.1%.
Leo, I’ll grant the contrarian setup, but the flow tape disagrees: taker buy/sell is 0.80 and longs are 60.2%. That is demand failing while directional exposure leans the wrong way; funding is unavailable, so no bullish funding reset can be claimed.
Theo’s point matters because the macro tape is not offering relief: prediction-market and tokenization headlines are defensive, and DYDX is down 8.3% in 30 days. Arcus is an idiosyncratic spark in a liquidity-sensitive market.
Dmitri, Arcus is precisely the kind of idiosyncratic spark that can matter when the chart is near $0.11. If $0.1062 holds and MACD stops contracting, the bear narrative loses its cleanest exhibit.
I rule for the bear side: underweight is the winning thesis. The decisive exhibit is the combination of price sitting 3.6% above $0.1062 with taker buy/sell at 0.80 and 60.2% long accounts, showing weak demand near support. This call is different from the recent losing underweight on July 31, which resolved at +3.2% versus BTC, because the current pack adds a 30-day decline of 8.3%, contracting MACD, and a much clearer support test. I overturn this ruling if DYDX closes above $0.1114 and RSI rises above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
RSI 39.2 and price below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200 keep the trend bearish; the 60-day low at $0.1062 is the immediate downside magnet. The +1.6% SMA50/SMA200 structure and positive MACD histogram of +0.0003471 are counterpoints, but MACD is contracting.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear & Greed is 29, taker buy/sell is 0.80, and 60.2% of long accounts creates a bearish crowding imbalance. The absence of StockTwits messages provides no usable social confirmation.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Arcus links dYdX Labs with Robinhood Chain and stock-token perpetuals, a credible ecosystem headline. Price action still treats the news as insufficient to offset the broader risk-off tape and tokenization weakness.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Arcus expands dYdX’s potential distribution and product surface through Robinhood’s ecosystem. The data pack supplies no revenue, usage, valuation, or token-supply figures, so the fundamental case cannot outweigh the deteriorating market structure.
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