DYDX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
DYDX’s 42 RSI cannot offset a 26.3% monthly slide and expanding bearish MACD
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-29 00:33 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-09-01 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-31 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-30 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -10.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -10.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -5.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -11.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -10.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +3.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -8.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -10.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -11.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — +2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.1182 with RSI above 50 would invalidate the bearish swing ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1103 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that 6.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that 6. Key support to defend sits near $0.1103. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: DYDX is down 26.3% over 30 days and sits 9.3% below SMA50. But RSI 42.0 isn’t capitulation, the SMA50 still edges above SMA200 by 0.1%, and the Arcus launch gives the project a new Robinhood-linked growth lane—the market may have already priced the shock. At 0.11743, only 6.4% above the 0.1103 low, the asymmetry is a spring coiled near support.
Leo, that 6.4% cushion is precisely the trap, not asymmetry: the price is below every major short- and medium-term average, with MACD at -9.746e-05 and expanding. You’re calling a 0.1% SMA50-over-SMA200 spread a structure; I call it a hairline fracture beneath a 52.1% collapse from the 0.245 high. RSI 42.0 leaves plenty of room to fall before any exhaustion claim is credible.
· Arcus adoption exceeds expectations
· Short-covering rebound near 0.1103
· Sudden dovish macro liquidity shift
Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.1182 with RSI above 50 would invalidate the bearish swing ruling.
Mara, the 0.1103 low is close enough to define risk, and Arcus is a real catalyst—not vaporware. If that level holds, a reflexive rebound toward 0.1182 can punish shorts leaning too hard on stale momentum.
Leo, your rebound target is merely today’s 0.1182 high, while taker buy/sell is 0.91 and 54.8% of accounts are already long. Those longs are fuel for a breakdown, not confirmation.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 0.1103 low is close enough to define risk, and Arcus is a real catalyst—not vaporware. If that level holds, a reflexive rebound toward 0.1182 can punish shorts leaning too hard on stale momentum.
Leo, your rebound target is merely today’s 0.1182 high, while taker buy/sell is 0.91 and 54.8% of accounts are already long. Those longs are fuel for a breakdown, not confirmation.
I’m with Mara on positioning: a 1.21 L/S ratio with 54.8% long accounts says the crowd is leaning the wrong way while aggressive takers sell. Funding is absent, so I won’t pretend we have a squeeze metric.
And I won’t underwrite a macro rescue from one dovish-Fed headline. The pack offers no liquidity turn, while DYDX has already lost 7.8% in seven days and 26.3% in thirty; the burden is on bulls to prove demand.
I award the ruling to the bears, and the decisive exhibit is the expanding -9.746e-05 MACD histogram alongside price 9.3% below SMA50. The long-heavy 1.21 L/S positioning and 0.91 taker buy/sell reinforce downside pressure. My ruling is overturned only if DYDX reclaims and holds above 0.1182 with RSI rising above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: trend versus SMA20/SMA50/SMA200, RSI, MACD, multi-period returns, 60-day range. Conflicts: SMA50 remains 0.1% above SMA200, a thin bullish moving-average structure against price sitting 4.6% below SMA20 and 9.3% below SMA50. Sufficiency: adequate. I see a damaged chart: RSI 42.0 is soft rather than washed out, while the MACD histogram at -9.746e-05 is expanding. The 0.1103 60-day low is the obvious downside test.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed, account positioning, long/short ratio, taker flow. Conflicts: 54.8% of accounts are long with a 1.21 L/S ratio, yet taker buy/sell is only 0.91 and Fear&Greed sits at 29. Sufficiency: adequate. I’m seeing fearful spot sentiment paired with stubborn long exposure—the classic setup where trapped longs provide the next wave of supply. There’s no funding data here, so I won’t invent a contrarian funding signal.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Arcus is a credible product headline: dYdX Labs is linked with Robinhood Chain to pair stock tokens with perpetuals. But the tape reportedly answered with a 23% DYDX drop, so the market is treating the launch as proof-of-concept, not proof of token value. I’m not letting a shiny partnership headline overrule that price reaction.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The Arcus rollout may broaden dYdX’s distribution and product surface, but this pack gives no token-supply, revenue, fee-capture, unlock, or valuation figures. I therefore see a strategic catalyst without evidence that DYDX holders capture the economics. The fundamental case is plausible, not demonstrated.
f3228b330576b611b2be9d8113cf0e0a0b0f0ed9b62e9a4bf3ed654ffebbb193e65b9d2c8c3aaa5bbfb44b1c0d548dd39e9b3ad714e19978cc23a37eb1110a92Committed 2026-07-30T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25