DYDX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
DYDX’s 63.7% long-account skew meets a 4.37% daily drop
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-23 01:17 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -10.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -10.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -5.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -11.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -10.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — +3.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -8.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -10.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -11.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — +2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of the 0.1222 area, representing the latest high and the required long-term moving-average recovery.. Cautious read: a break below $0.0953 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, the 17.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, the 17. Key support to defend sits near $0.0953. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
Mara, your strongest number is the 3.0% discount to SMA200 and the 3.1% bearish SMA50/SMA200 spread; I’ll grant that structure is ugly. But DYDX is 6.1% above SMA20, up 17.8% in seven days, and its MACD histogram is expanding at +0.001919—the market may be turning before the long averages catch up.
Leo, the 17.8% seven-day burst is exactly the number that makes your reversal story vulnerable, not credible. A coin still 51.7% beneath its 60-day high, with SMA50 3.1% below SMA200 and a 4.37% daily loss, has produced a bounce inside a damaged chart—not a repaired one.
I think the bearish ruling leaves more downside underpriced: DYDX is 51.7% below its 60-day high, yet 63.7% of accounts are long and the L/S ratio is 1.76. If the 0.93 taker buy/sell reading persists, crowded optimism can unwind faster than the judge allows.
The fragile exhibit is the bearish moving-average structure: SMA50 is 3.1% below SMA200, but price is only 0.1% above SMA50. A reclaim of SMA200 would directly damage the call, while RSI at 55.2 shows the tape is not yet deeply exhausted.
Leo overreached by treating the 17.8% seven-day rise as confirmation; Mara overreached only if she ignores the expanding +0.001919 MACD histogram. The deciding condition is whether price reclaims SMA200 or instead loses the 0.1182 session low.
· Arcus adoption and distribution surprise
· MACD expansion extends the rebound
· Crowded shorts emerge despite bullish account skew
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of the 0.1222 area, representing the latest high and the required long-term moving-average recovery.
Leo, you’re treating +6.1% versus SMA20 as a trend change while ignoring the 0.11865 price’s 3.0% gap below SMA200. Which moving average actually governs the larger structure?
Mara, the expanding +0.001919 MACD histogram governs the immediate impulse, and the 17.8% seven-day move proves sellers haven’t controlled every timeframe.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, you’re treating +6.1% versus SMA20 as a trend change while ignoring the 0.11865 price’s 3.0% gap below SMA200. Which moving average actually governs the larger structure?
Mara, the expanding +0.001919 MACD histogram governs the immediate impulse, and the 17.8% seven-day move proves sellers haven’t controlled every timeframe.
Leo, the crowd is already leaning your way: 63.7% long accounts and a 1.76 L/S ratio. Yet takers print only 0.93 on buy/sell, so enthusiasm is not translating into aggressive demand.
Theo, that asymmetry matters. With DYDX down 4.37% in 24 hours and still 51.7% below the 60-day high, fragile liquidity can turn crowded optimism into another air pocket.
I rule for the bear side: DYDX is bearish over weeks, and the decisive exhibit is the intact long-term structure—price at 0.11865 remains 3.0% below SMA200 while SMA50 is 3.1% beneath SMA200. This ruling is overturned by a sustained move above the 0.1222 area implied by the latest high and the SMA200 reclaim; absent that, the 0.0953 60-day low remains the downside reference.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
RSI is 55.2 and MACD histogram is expanding at +0.001919, while price sits 6.1% above SMA20. But price is still 3.0% below SMA200 and SMA50 trails SMA200 by 3.1%: the rebound has not repaired the primary trend.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Crowd psychology leans bullish: Fear&Greed is 66 and 63.7% of accounts are long, with an L/S ratio of 1.76. The 0.93 taker buy/sell ratio undercuts that optimism, while StockTwits supplied no usable sample.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The Arcus launch links dYdX to stock-token perpetuals on Robinhood Chain, a concrete expansion headline. The wider market tape offers no clean catalyst: BitMart is weighing a partial restart and Sandbox halted cross-chain bridging after an exploit.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Arcus could broaden dYdX’s product surface and distribution, but the pack provides no token-economics, revenue, valuation, supply, or adoption figures. The fundamental case is therefore headline-led rather than numerically demonstrated.
1a62396ac0b2eb42111f67dcd65dc81360d30cecf4e98515649d279acab750ed8dcc587613f29d0d57db9e6584607b513023911e8f47308581cffaaf7659dcc3Committed 2026-08-24T00:20:00+00:00 · 98 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24