DYDX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
DYDX sits at $0.10998 with RSI 39.0 and only 3.5% above its 60-day low
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-14 01:26 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -10.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -10.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -5.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -11.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -10.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — +3.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -8.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -10.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -11.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — +2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above the approximate SMA20 level of $0.1135 overturns the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1062 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that MACD flicker is a candle in a hurricane, not a reversal.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that MACD flicker is a candle in a hurricane, not a reversal. Key support to defend sits near $0.1062. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: DYDX is 12.1% under SMA50 and has shed 9.6% in 30 days. But RSI at 39.0 isn’t capitulation, and the +0.0002907 MACD histogram says the selling engine is sputtering; with Arcus launching on Robinhood Chain, this can be stale damage before the narrative catches fire. The August 1 and August 2 underweight calls both won as DYDX underperformed BTC by 4.5% and 3.2%, but August 3–6 mostly pushed, so the easy downside may already be priced.
Leo, that MACD flicker is a candle in a hurricane, not a reversal. Price remains 3.2% below SMA20, 11.0% below SMA200, and just 3.5% above the 60-day low of $0.1062; a contracting histogram has not repaired any of those levels. The August 6 underweight call pushed at -1.2% versus BTC, but the August 2 and August 1 wins show this bearish framework has already identified real relative weakness; the August 1 loss at +3.2% is the reminder that rebounds can still bite.
I think the downside has more room than the ruling admits: $0.1062 is only 3.5% below $0.10998, and a break would expose a fresh price-discovery leg beneath the shown 60-day range. The 61.5% long-account share leaves more air beneath the market if fear intensifies.
The fastest failure is a reflexive rebound from the $0.1062 low: RSI 39.0 is weak but not deeply oversold, and the positive MACD histogram at +0.0002907 could accelerate. The fragile exhibit is the recent bearish hit rate, because July 31 underweight lost as DYDX returned +3.2% versus BTC.
Leo overreaches by treating a +0.0002907 MACD histogram as proof of repair; Mara overreaches if she assumes the low must break. The deciding condition is whether price reclaims the approximate $0.1135 SMA20 level or instead loses $0.1062.
· Rebound from the $0.1062 60-day low
· Arcus adoption on Robinhood Chain
· Regulatory clarity improving tokenization sentiment
Invalidation: A sustained move above the approximate SMA20 level of $0.1135 overturns the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating the 60-day low at $0.1062 like gravity. RSI 39.0 and a positive MACD histogram say the floor can hold before another leg down.
Leo, the floor is only 3.5% away because price is already cornered, not because buyers have proven anything. Taker flow at 0.87 is a direct vote against your reversal story.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the 60-day low at $0.1062 like gravity. RSI 39.0 and a positive MACD histogram say the floor can hold before another leg down.
Leo, the floor is only 3.5% away because price is already cornered, not because buyers have proven anything. Taker flow at 0.87 is a direct vote against your reversal story.
I’m with Mara on the tape: 61.5% long accounts and a 1.60 long/short ratio create fragile crowding, while no funding data means nobody can claim that crowd has been flushed.
And I won’t turn Arcus into a liquidity miracle. The SEC is delaying its innovation exemption again, so the tokenization catalyst sits under a regulatory cloud while DYDX is 55.1% below its 60-day high.
I rule for the bearish side: underweight. The decisive exhibit is the combination of price at $0.10998, only 3.5% above the $0.1062 60-day low, and taker buy/sell at 0.87. This differs from the recent losing underweight call on July 31, when DYDX gained 3.2% versus BTC: today the chart is still below all three key short-term and long-term averages, and long-account crowding remains visible. My ruling is invalidated by a sustained move above SMA20, which the pack places 3.2% above current price, approximately $0.1135.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I see a damaged chart, not a clean reversal: price is 3.2% below SMA20, 12.1% below SMA50, and 11.0% below SMA200. RSI at 39.0 is soft rather than washed out, while the contracting MACD histogram offers only a flicker of stabilization.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear & Greed at 29 is bearish, but the crowd is still leaning long: 61.5% long accounts and a 1.60 long/short ratio. Taker buy/sell at 0.87 confirms sellers have the immediate edge; the absence of StockTwits messages gives me no contrarian social signal.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Arcus and the Robinhood Chain launch give dYdX a credible tokenized-equity narrative, but the headlines are partnership and product-launch stories, not evidence of realized adoption. SEC delays around tokenization regulation leave the broader catalyst path politically exposed.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Arcus expands dYdX’s addressable product story by pairing stock tokens with perpetuals on Robinhood Chain. Still, this pack provides no revenue, volume, token-supply, fee, or adoption figures, so the fundamental case cannot outweigh a price structure down 9.6% over 30 days.
fd2d46e4ab1172602449c840421b486aeae7b6ef4097cbe00dd9192a8dfe15a953f40f609f1c3a40d35f95df8482a1a109627902af10da6eeb4433219b8978bcCommitted 2026-08-15T00:20:00+00:00 · 95 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23