DYDX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
DYDX sits at $0.10996, only 3.5% above its 60-day low as RSI reads 39
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-15 01:22 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -10.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -10.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Underweight — -5.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -11.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -10.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +3.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -8.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -10.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -11.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — +2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above approximately $0.1241, the implied SMA50 level from the stated 11.4% discount, would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1062 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that +0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that +0. Key support to defend sits near $0.1062. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: DYDX is 11.4% below SMA50 and sits just 3.5% above the 60-day low. But RSI at 39.0 isn’t a capitulation print, MACD histogram is still positive at +0.0002743, and SMA50 remains 0.7% above SMA200; that’s a battered engine with a spark, not a confirmed breakdown. The Arcus launch gives this beaten-down chart a fresh narrative, and the recent underweight loss on July 31 was real—DYDX gained 3.2% versus BTC—so the short thesis has already shown it can be late.
Leo, that +0.0002743 MACD histogram is contracting, not accelerating, and your +0.7% moving-average structure has done nothing against a price 10.8% under SMA200. DYDX is down 12.0% in 30 days and long accounts still dominate at 60.8%; calling a near-low bounce a repaired trend is hopium wearing a lab coat. July 31’s underweight loss of +3.2% versus BTC proves a squeeze can happen, not that the current structure has healed.
I think the ruling leaves upside underpriced: a defense of the $0.1062 low plus RSI 39.0 and a positive MACD histogram of +0.0002743 could produce a sharp relief move. The July 31 underweight loss, when DYDX gained 3.2% versus BTC, shows this asset can punish a one-way read.
The fastest failure is a break of $0.1062, because that is the nearest hard reference and price is only 3.5% above it. The fragile exhibit is the +0.7% SMA50/SMA200 spread; it is bullish in isolation but overwhelmed by price sitting 10.8% below SMA200.
Leo overreached by treating a contracting +0.0002743 MACD histogram as a reversal, while Mara overreached if she assumes the low must fail. The deciding condition is whether $0.1062 holds or breaks; the recent record—three WIN calls and one LOSS, including the July 31 +3.2% outcome—supports respect for both the prevailing downside and squeeze risk.
· Arcus adoption surprise
· breakdown failure at $0.1062
· short-term squeeze against 60.8% long accounts
Invalidation: A sustained move above approximately $0.1241, the implied SMA50 level from the stated 11.4% discount, would overturn the bearish ruling.
Leo, your entire rescue case hangs on RSI 39.0 and a contracting MACD histogram. How does a positive blip outweigh price sitting only 3.5% above 0.1062?
Mara, proximity to 0.1062 is exactly why the downside may be stale. A hold there, paired with the still-bullish +0.7% SMA50/SMA200 spread, would make your breakdown story pay for its certainty.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(5)
Leo, your entire rescue case hangs on RSI 39.0 and a contracting MACD histogram. How does a positive blip outweigh price sitting only 3.5% above 0.1062?
Mara, proximity to 0.1062 is exactly why the downside may be stale. A hold there, paired with the still-bullish +0.7% SMA50/SMA200 spread, would make your breakdown story pay for its certainty.
Both of you are skipping the crowd: 60.8% of long accounts and a 1.55 L/S ratio leave the market leaning the wrong way, but taker buy/sell at 1.02 is near balance. That’s bearish crowding without a funding-rate exhibit—I won’t invent one.
Arcus is a product headline, not proof of liquidity. With DYDX down 4.4% in seven days and 12.0% in thirty, the macro tape has not rewarded the narrative yet.
And the record matters: underweight won on August 7 at -3.5% versus BTC and August 1 at -4.5%. The July 31 loss was +3.2%, but it is the exception, not an absolution.
I rule for the bear: underweight. The decisive exhibit is price at $0.10996, 10.8% beneath SMA200 and only 3.5% above the 60-day low, despite the Arcus headline and the +0.7% SMA50/SMA200 spread. This differs from the July 31 loss because the current pack adds a 12.0% 30-day decline, Fear & Greed at 34, and a contracting MACD histogram; a sustained move above SMA50, which is approximately $0.1241 based on the stated 11.4% discount, would overturn my ruling.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Bearish overall: price is 2.5% below SMA20, 11.4% below SMA50, and 10.8% below SMA200, while RSI(14) is 39.0. The bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure at +0.7% and positive MACD histogram of +0.0002743 are the counterweights; sufficiency is adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Bearish crowd psychology: Fear & Greed is 34, and DYDX is down 4.4% over 7 days and 12.0% over 30 days. Long accounts still lead at 60.8% with an L/S ratio of 1.55, while taker buy/sell is only 1.02; sufficiency is adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The meaningful DYDX-specific headline is Arcus, a DEX pairing tokenized equities with perpetuals on Robinhood Chain, alongside the reported dYdX Labs and Robinhood Crypto launch. The broader Trump crypto headlines are market context, not direct evidence of DYDX demand.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Arcus expands the product narrative toward tokenized equities and perpetuals, but the data pack provides no revenue, token-supply, valuation, or adoption figures. The fundamental case is therefore catalyst-led rather than numerically established.
7d6de6f42ab2c3c8efcdbc8bda84c8d6e91270b8c3a59a32fe5c6e50523bfc2ab9992f9aaddcb66d097da88829da3966f8938204256939eecd449461ccbccfffCommitted 2026-08-16T00:20:00+00:00 · 96 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23