AXS / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
AXS slips to $0.901 as the bearish MA stack and -4.489% day keep pressure on
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-29 02:05 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -9.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -11.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -10.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — -8.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Neutral — +2.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +8.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +9.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — +6.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — +6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -9.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -9.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Underweight — -8.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A decisive reclaim of $1.129, the 60d high, would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.8 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo’s +8.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo’s +8. Key support to defend sits near $0.8. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: AXS sits 18.3% below SMA200 and the MACD histogram is -0.002698 and expanding. But the 30d return is still +8.7%, RSI is only 47.1, and price is just 12.5% above the $0.800 60d low; that smells like a retracement with a defined floor, not a fresh collapse. We had an overweight LOSS on August 20 at -8.8% versus BTC, so the rebound case has already been punished once; the September 1 hackathon gives the tape a live catalyst.
Leo’s +8.7% monthly number is a rear-view mirror painted over a broken chassis: the last week erased 9.1%, and price is below every listed moving average. The $0.800 floor is 12.5% lower, which is ample air beneath $0.901, while Greed at 68 and a 0.90 taker ratio show buyers are not forcing control. The August 20 overweight call lost 8.8% versus BTC; today’s -4.489% day and expanding negative MACD argue the same weakness is still active.
I think the downside has more room than the ruling admits: AXS is $0.901, still 12.5% above the $0.800 60d low, and the expanding -0.002698 MACD histogram can accelerate a break. Greed at 68 is a fragile cushion, not a floor.
The fastest failure is a sharp relief rally from the $0.800 support zone: RSI 47.1 is not oversold, but it also leaves room for buyers to recover without extreme crowding. The most fragile exhibit is the bearish moving-average gap, especially the 18.3% distance to SMA200, because it can narrow quickly after a catalyst.
The aggressive desk overreaches on acceleration without funding data, while the conservative desk overreaches on a catalyst rescuing structure. The deciding condition is whether AXS breaks $0.800 or reclaims SMA50, currently implied by price being 0.9% below it; the settled record favors caution, with 3 WIN and 1 LOSS across shown directional calls.
· September 1 hackathon catalyst
· Relief rally from $0.800
· 30d gain of 8.7% reasserting itself
Invalidation: A decisive reclaim of $1.129, the 60d high, would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating the $0.800 low as destiny, but it’s only 12.5% away and RSI 47.1 leaves room for a snapback. The +8.7% 30d gain says sellers haven’t erased the whole structure.
Leo, the structure is already below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200—by 2.0%, 0.9%, and 18.3%. Your monthly gain is exactly the kind of stale headline that traps late optimism.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the $0.800 low as destiny, but it’s only 12.5% away and RSI 47.1 leaves room for a snapback. The +8.7% 30d gain says sellers haven’t erased the whole structure.
Leo, the structure is already below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200—by 2.0%, 0.9%, and 18.3%. Your monthly gain is exactly the kind of stale headline that traps late optimism.
Leo, I’m with Mara on the tape: takers run at 0.90 buy/sell, while Greed is 68. Long accounts at 50.4% are not crowded, but they’re certainly not evidence of aggressive demand.
Theo, the macro pack gives me no liquidity tailwind to rescue that setup. With AXS down 9.1% in seven days and sitting 20.3% below the $1.129 60d high, the burden stays with the rebound thesis.
I rule for the bear case: AXS is bearish over weeks, and the decisive exhibit is price 18.3% below SMA200 alongside an expanding -0.002698 MACD histogram. The recent August 20 overweight LOSS of -8.8% versus BTC was a failed bullish call, whereas the August 21 underweight call won by 10.9%; this call differs because current price remains beneath all major averages and taker flow is 0.90. I overturn the ruling only if AXS reclaims $1.129, the 60d high, with momentum reversing rather than merely touching it.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Bearish. Evidence: RSI(14) 47.1, price below SMA20 by 2.0%, SMA50 by 0.9%, and SMA200 by 18.3%; MACD histogram -0.002698 is expanding, while 7d performance is -9.1% versus 30d performance of +8.7%. Conflicts: RSI is near-neutral and the 30d move is positive. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Bearish. Evidence: Fear&Greed is 68 (Greed), taker buy/sell is 0.90, and long accounts are 50.4% with an L/S ratio of 1.02. Conflicts: account skew is nearly balanced and StockTwits has 0 bullish versus 0 bearish posts across 0 messages. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The September 1 Axie Infinity hackathon is a constructive event, but the supplied headlines offer no confirmed catalyst capable of offsetting the chart’s -9.1% seven-day slide. The broader headlines on prediction-market court powers and Solana disinflation do not directly improve AXS demand.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The pack provides no fresh token-economics, revenue, adoption, or supply figures. A hackathon may support developer attention, but it is not enough to establish a months-long fundamental trend.
02b8aa188538f0482a040eb913cb39606bff841acac64432d93e7824a02e95bdadde2046047c35b2be3d774c5e58080e229d71d404353d96fdaed9f2e1bcf4e2Committed 2026-08-30T00:20:00+00:00 · 91 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23 · 2026-08-22