AXS / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
AXS sits at $0.923, 29.6% below its 60-day high as sellers retain control
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-23 00:41 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-28 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -9.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -11.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -10.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — -8.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Neutral — +2.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +8.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +9.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — +6.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — +6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -9.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -9.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Underweight — -8.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.98 would overturn the bearish ruling by reclaiming the short-term breakdown zone.. Cautious read: a break below $0.859 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo’s $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo’s $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.859. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: AXS trades 25.7% under its SMA200, and the 60-day high at $1.31 is a distant ridge. But RSI is already down to 36.8 and the token sits just 7.3% above the $0.859 low, so much of the panic looks stale and a Terrariums V1.1 catalyst can spark a sharp relief run.
Leo’s $0.859 rebound thesis is exactly the hopium trap; proximity to a low is not support when AXS is below every major moving average. The 0.91 taker buy/sell ratio and -9.1% 30-day return show sellers are still dictating the tape, while $1.31 is a 29.6% climb through overhead supply.
· Terrariums V1.1 catalyst
· RSI 36.8 relief bounce
· reward-change headlines triggering speculative demand
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.98 would overturn the bearish ruling by reclaiming the short-term breakdown zone.
Mara, RSI at 36.8 says the downside is getting crowded, and the MACD histogram is contracting from -0.005291. You’re treating a weakening bearish impulse as if it were fresh acceleration.
Leo, contracting MACD is not a reversal until price reclaims levels. At $0.923, AXS remains 6.2% below SMA50 and 5.4% below SMA20.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, RSI at 36.8 says the downside is getting crowded, and the MACD histogram is contracting from -0.005291. You’re treating a weakening bearish impulse as if it were fresh acceleration.
Leo, contracting MACD is not a reversal until price reclaims levels. At $0.923, AXS remains 6.2% below SMA50 and 5.4% below SMA20.
Leo, I’m not seeing a squeeze setup: long accounts are 50.6%, L/S is 1.02, and takers are net selling at 0.91. That is balanced positioning with a bearish execution skew, not trapped shorts.
The sector headlines can glitter, but the pack gives me no liquidity impulse to underwrite a sustained altcoin bid. Until AXS proves demand above its moving averages, the macro tide is still out.
I rule for Mara and Dmitri: the single decisive exhibit is the bearish moving-average stack, with AXS 25.7% below SMA200 and SMA50 20.7% below SMA200. I overturn this ruling only if price reclaims $0.98, the nearest practical level above the current short-term moving-average zone, and holds it.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Direction bearish. Evidence families: RSI(14) 36.8; price 5.4% below SMA20, 6.2% below SMA50, and 25.7% below SMA200; bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure; MACD histogram -0.005291. Conflicts: MACD histogram is contracting and price is only 7.3% above the $0.859 60-day low. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Direction bearish. Evidence families: Fear & Greed 31; taker buy/sell 0.91; long accounts 50.6% with L/S ratio 1.02. Conflicts: positioning is nearly balanced rather than heavily long. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The headline flow is constructive but promotional: Terrariums V1.1 is scheduled for July 22, while reports also cite rallies and a prior 123% token jump tied to rewards changes. That optimism has not translated into price strength, with AXS down 5.6% over 7 days and 9.1% over 30 days.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: The data pack offers no fresh token-supply, revenue, or adoption figures to justify a durable fundamental rerating. Rewards changes and Terrariums updates may improve game engagement, but the token is still priced 29.6% below its 60-day high.
ead76d56bcd195647485e5beee59e2ed07253fd07ec7cc6b4dc6ac21909fef328624d818ee7811d0e765aa63f60423eb1e28fec5823b0c3f5024085df84084a2Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24