AXS / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
AXS sits at $0.842 with RSI 31.3, but the downtrend still owns the chart
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-01 01:08 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-09-05 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-09-01 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-31 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -9.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -11.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -10.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Overweight — -8.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Neutral — +2.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +8.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +9.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — +6.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -9.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -9.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Underweight — -8.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.900 with RSI above 50 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.8 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, the $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, the $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.8. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugly number: AXS is 31.9% under its SMA200 and down 17.4% over 30 days. But RSI at 31.3 is already scraping the oversold floor, the MACD histogram is contracting, and price sits just 5.1% above the $0.800 60-day low—much of the panic may be stale and priced in.
Leo, the $0.800 floor is not a springboard; it is the nearest exposed ledge. Your oversold argument ignores that AXS remains below every major moving average, with the SMA50 21.7% beneath the SMA200 in a decisively bearish structure, while the 30-day loss is still -17.4%.
· Oversold rebound from $0.800
· Terrariums V1.1 utility adoption
· Broader crypto liquidity reversal
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.900 with RSI above 50 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, a 31.3 RSI after a 17.4% monthly slide is exactly where reflex rallies are born; the contracting -0.005166 MACD histogram says sellers are losing thrust.
Leo, contracting momentum is not reversing momentum. Until AXS recovers the $0.844 intraday high and then repairs the SMA20 gap of -7.1%, your rebound is a candle in a hurricane.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, a 31.3 RSI after a 17.4% monthly slide is exactly where reflex rallies are born; the contracting -0.005166 MACD histogram says sellers are losing thrust.
Leo, contracting momentum is not reversing momentum. Until AXS recovers the $0.844 intraday high and then repairs the SMA20 gap of -7.1%, your rebound is a candle in a hurricane.
Leo, the crowd is not cleanly washed out: 60.7% of long accounts remain long, the L/S ratio is 1.54, and taker buy/sell is 0.97. Fear at 27 is paired with stubborn bullish exposure, a poor recipe for durable demand.
Mara has the macro wind: Bitcoin faces a choppy August even after forced-selling exhaustion, while AXS is already 34.1% below its 60-day high of $1.277. Thin liquidity can turn that backdrop into another leg lower.
I rule for the bear side: underweight. The decisive exhibit is the alignment of price beneath SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200—respectively -7.1%, -13.0%, and -31.9%—reinforced by 60.7% long accounts despite Fear&Greed at 27. This ruling is invalidated by a sustained recovery above $0.900 accompanied by RSI reclaiming 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Bearish. AXS trades 7.1% below SMA20, 13.0% below SMA50, and 31.9% below SMA200, with a bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure of -21.7%. RSI 31.3 and a contracting MACD histogram at -0.005166 show pressure easing only marginally; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Bearish. Fear&Greed is 27, long accounts dominate at 60.7% with an L/S ratio of 1.54, and taker buy/sell is 0.97. That is anxious, one-sided optimism rather than capitulation; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Neutral-to-bearish. Terrariums V1.1 adds bAXS earnings mechanics and fresh game-content headlines, but the pack offers no quantified adoption or revenue impact. Broader headlines describe choppy August conditions and exhausted forced selling, not a specific AXS catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Neutral. Terrariums V1.1 may improve the utility narrative by bringing accessories and land items into the bAXS earnings formula. The data pack supplies no token-supply, earnings, user-growth, or valuation figures to establish a durable fundamental rerating.
537cafc3deb618f94b0b8669c45e651cec529cb4a3ab597c5ea6c2f16b7b5ed717a05f840206e04eacebcefa609c9830d9d348d2983cb8ad8c7220012e6658ecCommitted 2026-08-02T00:20:00+00:00 · 94 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24