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AXS / The Verdict

generated 2026-07-15 04:01 UTC
$0.99
+2.26% · 24h
price as of 2026-07-15 04:01 UTC
Price source
📜 Archived verdict of 2026-07-15 — latest verdict → AXS
The Verdict
Underweight

AXS remains fragile despite a modest short-term rebound

⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-15 04:01 UTC

Technicalsignal strength Bearish C
Measures how strong the directional signal from price structure is. An analyst lists independent evidence families (trend, momentum, structure) from the data pack; code converts the count to a letter — 3+ families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicting evidence caps the grade at C; insufficient information gets no grade at all. The letter is signal strength — direction is shown separately. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Sentimentsignal strength Bearish C
Same scale as Technical, applied to crowd evidence — fear/greed, positioning, and flow. 3+ independent evidence families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicts cap at C; not enough information, no grade. The letter says how loud the crowd signal is, not which way price will go. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction Shorts pay A
Measures perpetual funding-rate pressure — risk, not direction. The smaller the 8-hour normalized rate, the calmer the market: under 0.5 bp = A+, then A, B, C, D as pressure grows, F beyond 10 bp (extreme crowding). Who pays (longs or shorts) is shown separately. Read A+ as “calm”, never as “bullish”. (funding_rule_v1) full scales →
KOL Consensussettled-record quality Archive building
Measures the quality and strength of on-record KOL consensus. Only authors with 20+ settled calls count. The majority share sets the base letter (85%+ = A+ down to 55%+ = D), but few qualified authors cap it — under 5 authors we show the direction and withhold the grade while the record builds. (kol_rule_v1) full scales →

Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.

Track record
17W–7L–9P · 1 neutral · since 2026-07-15
95% CI 50.8–85.1% · n=24 · early sample
2026-09-05 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-12
2026-09-01 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-08
2026-08-31 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-07
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-29 · AXS price $0.901 · BTC $77872.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-05 · AXS price $0.9409 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
+2.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-28 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-28 · AXS price $0.949 · BTC $80168.1
Settled (T+8d)
2026-09-05 · AXS price $0.9409 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-0.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-27 · AXS price $0.937 · BTC $78922
Settled (T+9d)
2026-09-05 · AXS price $0.9409 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-0.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-25 · AXS price $0.9779 · BTC $78968.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-01 · AXS price $0.908 · BTC $78717.1
vs BTC
-6.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-24 — Underweight — -9.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-24 · AXS price $0.977 · BTC $77645.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-31 · AXS price $0.881 · BTC $77473.2
vs BTC
-9.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-23 — Underweight — -11.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-23 · AXS price $0.99 · BTC $77094.1
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-31 · AXS price $0.881 · BTC $77473.2
vs BTC
-11.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Overweight → Underweight
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
stance change · Underweight → Overweight
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -10.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-21 · AXS price $0.9739 · BTC $73322.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-28 · AXS price $0.949 · BTC $80168.1
vs BTC
-10.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Overweight → Underweight
2026-08-20 — Overweight — -8.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-20 · AXS price $0.906 · BTC $69631.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-27 · AXS price $0.937 · BTC $78922
vs BTC
-8.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Overweight
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-16 · AXS price $0.8606 · BTC $63070.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-23 · AXS price $0.99 · BTC $77094.1
vs BTC
-5.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-14 · AXS price $0.8638 · BTC $63504.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-21 · AXS price $0.9739 · BTC $73322.8
vs BTC
-2.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-13 · AXS price $0.8576 · BTC $63588.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-20 · AXS price $0.906 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-3.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-08 — Neutral — +2.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-08 · AXS price $0.884 · BTC $64896.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-15 · AXS price $0.8824 · BTC $63021.6
vs BTC
+2.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-07 · AXS price $0.896 · BTC $64381
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-14 · AXS price $0.8638 · BTC $63504.5
vs BTC
-2.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-06 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-06 · AXS price $0.878 · BTC $64604.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-13 · AXS price $0.8576 · BTC $63588.5
vs BTC
-0.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-05 — Underweight — +8.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-05 · AXS price $0.829 · BTC $64023.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-12 · AXS price $0.889 · BTC $63546
vs BTC
+8.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-04 — Underweight — +9.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-04 · AXS price $0.827 · BTC $63558.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-11 · AXS price $0.9076 · BTC $63941.5
vs BTC
+9.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-03 — Underweight — +6.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-03 · AXS price $0.827 · BTC $63435.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-10 · AXS price $0.902 · BTC $65054
vs BTC
+6.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-02 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-02 · AXS price $0.828 · BTC $62914.5
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-10 · AXS price $0.902 · BTC $65054
vs BTC
+5.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-01 · AXS price $0.842 · BTC $62954.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-08 · AXS price $0.884 · BTC $64896.5
vs BTC
+1.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-31 — Underweight — +6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-31 · AXS price $0.836 · BTC $63805
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-07 · AXS price $0.896 · BTC $64381
vs BTC
+6.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-30 · AXS price $0.822 · BTC $64044.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-06 · AXS price $0.878 · BTC $64604.5
vs BTC
+5.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-29 · AXS price $0.837 · BTC $64051
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-05 · AXS price $0.829 · BTC $64023.8
vs BTC
-0.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-28 · AXS price $0.8389 · BTC $63644.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-04 · AXS price $0.827 · BTC $63558.1
vs BTC
-1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-27 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-27 · AXS price $0.894 · BTC $65216
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-03 · AXS price $0.827 · BTC $63435.7
vs BTC
-4.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-26 · AXS price $0.8914 · BTC $64416
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-02 · AXS price $0.828 · BTC $62914.5
vs BTC
-4.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-24 · AXS price $0.8999 · BTC $64928
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-31 · AXS price $0.836 · BTC $64779.5
vs BTC
-6.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-23 · AXS price $0.923 · BTC $66209
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-30 · AXS price $0.822 · BTC $64044.7
vs BTC
-7.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-22 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-22 · AXS price $0.923 · BTC $65937.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-29 · AXS price $0.837 · BTC $64051
vs BTC
-6.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-21 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-21 · AXS price $0.928 · BTC $65161.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-28 · AXS price $0.8389 · BTC $63644.6
vs BTC
-7.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-20 · AXS price $0.921 · BTC $63745.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-27 · AXS price $0.894 · BTC $65216
vs BTC
-5.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-19 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-19 · AXS price $0.93 · BTC $64708.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-26 · AXS price $0.8914 · BTC $64416
vs BTC
-3.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-17 — Underweight — -9.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-17 · AXS price $0.974 · BTC $63739.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-24 · AXS price $0.8999 · BTC $64928
vs BTC
-9.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-16 — Underweight — -9.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-16 · AXS price $0.992 · BTC $64777.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-23 · AXS price $0.923 · BTC $66209
vs BTC
-9.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-15 — Underweight — -8.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-15 · AXS price $0.995 · BTC $65000.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-22 · AXS price $0.934 · BTC $66588
vs BTC
-8.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →

The evidence
Bear evidence ✓ aligns with this verdict

coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read

Price
Price at verdict$0.995 +2.3% 24h
60d high1.31 -24.0%
60d low0.859 +15.8%
RSI(14)47.9
30d change -0.6%

snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions

The Deliberation
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
VS
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
JA
Risk Committee · Final Ruling
Chief Adjudicator (Aldrich)
KOL Settlement Seat
Calls on record: 0 up · 0 down

Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind

Analyst notes
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)

Neutral-to-bearish: price is below the 20- and 50-period SMAs, while RSI is neutral and MACD momentum is improving.

Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)

Bearish: Extreme Fear dominates, though positioning is near balanced and taker buying is slightly stronger.

Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)

Headlines are mostly broader crypto and regulatory developments, with no clear AXS-specific catalyst.

Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)

The data pack contains no AXS-specific fundamental metrics, so conviction is limited.

Provenance
Report fingerprint
fb77ee3c83dd92fb42d534bab7268951c2ffa6b5012282f171389e1f093a5dde
UTC date
2026-07-15
Chain head
fe6d19bbd0dec4d03a8b201098fd67ad3bf99835727f3053ccd256283e21cc8a

Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain

SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.

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