AXS / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
AXS sits at $0.923 with RSI 36.8, but the downtrend still owns the tape
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-22 09:29 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -9.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -11.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -10.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Overweight — -8.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Neutral — +2.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +8.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +9.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — +6.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — +5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -9.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -9.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Underweight — -8.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: A daily close above $1.00 accompanied by RSI(14) rising above 50 would invalidate the bearish swing verdict.. Cautious read: a break below $0.859 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your “stretched spring” is still tied to a falling anvil.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your “stretched spring” is still tied to a falling anvil. Key support to defend sits near $0.859. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, Mara: AXS is 25.6% below its SMA200 and has shed 13.9% in 30 days. But RSI is already down at 36.8, the MACD histogram is contracting at -0.005875, and the coin is only 7.5% above $0.859 support—this is a stretched spring, not fresh air beneath the floor. Terrariums V1.1 and the rewards-change catalyst give buyers a match if support holds.
Leo, your “stretched spring” is still tied to a falling anvil. Price remains below every major average, including SMA20 by 6.0% and SMA50 by 6.5%, while the SMA50 sits 20.4% below the SMA200 in a plainly bearish structure. RSI 36.8 says pressure is heavy, not that reversal is owed; $0.859 is close enough to be tested.
· Terrariums V1.1 catalyst
· Rewards-change repricing
· RSI-driven relief bounce
Invalidation: A daily close above $1.00 accompanied by RSI(14) rising above 50 would invalidate the bearish swing verdict.
Mara, you’re treating $0.859 as destiny when it’s the nearest obvious demand zone. A 7.5% buffer plus contracting MACD pressure gives bulls a clean line in the sand.
Leo, clean lines don’t create buyers. Taker flow is still below neutral at 0.98, and your support argument fails the moment $0.859 breaks.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating $0.859 as destiny when it’s the nearest obvious demand zone. A 7.5% buffer plus contracting MACD pressure gives bulls a clean line in the sand.
Leo, clean lines don’t create buyers. Taker flow is still below neutral at 0.98, and your support argument fails the moment $0.859 breaks.
I’m with Mara on the positioning read: long accounts are 50.6% and L/S is 1.03, so there’s no meaningful short crowd to squeeze. Funding isn’t provided, so nobody gets to invent a carry-based bullish case.
And the macro backdrop is a wet matchbook: Bitcoin is below $66,000 and a 99% stablecoin collapse followed a $1 million exploit. AXS needs more than a game update to outrun a liquidity drain.
I rule for the bears, and the decisive exhibit is the bearish moving-average stack: AXS is 25.6% below SMA200 while SMA50 is 20.4% below SMA200. The nearest support is $0.859; a daily close above $1.00 with RSI reclaiming 50 would overturn my ruling.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: price below SMA20 (-6.0%), SMA50 (-6.5%), and SMA200 (-25.6%); bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure (-20.4%); 7d (-6.9%) and 30d (-13.9%) momentum. Conflicts: RSI 36.8 and contracting MACD histogram (-0.005875) hint at selling exhaustion. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed 33 (Fear); taker buy/sell 0.98; long accounts 50.6% with L/S ratio 1.03. Conflicts: positioning is nearly balanced rather than aggressively short. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: Terrariums V1.1 is a tangible July 22 catalyst, and headlines cite a 123% AXS jump tied to rewards changes. But the broader tape is risk-off: Bitcoin is below $66,000, while a stablecoin exploit reinforces crypto liquidity stress. News support exists, yet it has not repaired the chart.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: The rewards-change narrative can improve game engagement, but the data pack provides no token-supply, revenue, or retention figures to validate a durable fundamental rerating. The 123% historical jump is headline fuel, not proof that today’s $0.923 valuation has a floor.
f1ef5f720715a99fa3adf0efbfcbb3c9f612ab265f8538a47003d953831e674ed60befb007b8b2c9bb2f3e860a595495bb4427a42c1d8f8851947ca5b9c4caf9Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 98 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24