CoinVerdict

SUI / The Verdict

generated 2026-07-30 00:38 UTC
$0.68
-1.38% · 24h
price as of 2026-07-30 00:38 UTC
Price source
📜 Archived verdict of 2026-07-30 — latest verdict → SUI
The Verdict
Underweight

SUI at $0.6847 is leaning bearish as RSI sinks to 38.4 and MACD downside expands

⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-30 00:38 UTC

Technicalsignal strength Bearish C
Measures how strong the directional signal from price structure is. An analyst lists independent evidence families (trend, momentum, structure) from the data pack; code converts the count to a letter — 3+ families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicting evidence caps the grade at C; insufficient information gets no grade at all. The letter is signal strength — direction is shown separately. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Sentimentsignal strength Bearish C
Same scale as Technical, applied to crowd evidence — fear/greed, positioning, and flow. 3+ independent evidence families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicts cap at C; not enough information, no grade. The letter says how loud the crowd signal is, not which way price will go. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction Longs pay A
Measures perpetual funding-rate pressure — risk, not direction. The smaller the 8-hour normalized rate, the calmer the market: under 0.5 bp = A+, then A, B, C, D as pressure grows, F beyond 10 bp (extreme crowding). Who pays (longs or shorts) is shown separately. Read A+ as “calm”, never as “bullish”. (funding_rule_v1) full scales →
KOL Consensussettled-record quality Bullish Archive building
Measures the quality and strength of on-record KOL consensus. Only authors with 20+ settled calls count. The majority share sets the base letter (85%+ = A+ down to 55%+ = D), but few qualified authors cap it — under 5 authors we show the direction and withhold the grade while the record builds. (kol_rule_v1) full scales →

Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.

Track record
3W–0L–2P · 2 neutral · since 2026-07-15
95% CI 43.8–100.0% · n=3 · early sample
2026-07-30 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-06
2026-07-29 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-05
2026-07-28 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-04
2026-07-27 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-03
2026-07-26 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-02
2026-07-25 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-01
2026-07-24 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-07-31
2026-07-23 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-07-30
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-22 · SUI price $0.7587 · BTC $65937.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-29 · SUI price $0.6955 · BTC $64051
vs BTC
-5.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-21 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-21 · SUI price $0.765 · BTC $65161.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-28 · SUI price $0.6814 · BTC $63644.6
vs BTC
-8.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-20 · SUI price $0.7411 · BTC $63745.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-27 · SUI price $0.7203 · BTC $65216
vs BTC
-5.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-19 · SUI price $0.7418 · BTC $64708.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-26 · SUI price $0.7121 · BTC $64416
vs BTC
-3.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-17 · SUI price $0.7387 · BTC $63739.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-24 · SUI price $0.739 · BTC $64928
vs BTC
-1.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-16 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-16 · SUI price $0.75 · BTC $64777.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-23 · SUI price $0.7657 · BTC $66209
vs BTC
-0.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-15 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-15 · SUI price $0.7527 · BTC $65000.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-22 · SUI price $0.7738 · BTC $66588
vs BTC
+0.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →

The evidence
Bull evidence
Bear evidence ✓ aligns with this verdict
Market state

coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read

Price
Price at verdict$0.6847 -1.4% 24h
60d high0.9033 -24.2%
60d low0.6503 +5.2%
RSI(14)38.4
vs 200d SMA -28.5%
30d change -0.9%
Funding (net) +0.51 bp/8h
Fear & Greed28 · Fear
Long accounts65.2% long

snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges

Read this ruling three ways

Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.

The Deliberation
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
VS
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
⚔ Key clashes
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
TO
Positioning Desk (Theo Okafor)
DV
Macro Desk (Dmitri Volkov)
JA
Risk Committee · Final Ruling
Chief Adjudicator (Aldrich)
DirectionBearish
ConfidenceHigh
HorizonWeeks (swing)
Key support$0.6503
Key resistance$0.6887
InvalidationA sustained reclaim of $0.6887 with RSI above 50 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Main risksAugust token-unlock supply pressureCrowded longs triggering a sharp squeezeSUI ETF-driven demand
KOL Settlement Seat
Calls on record: 1 up · 0 down

Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind

Analyst notes
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)

The tape is below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200 by 6.3%, 6.3%, and 28.5%, Kai Nakamura says. RSI at 38.4 is weak, while the -0.00634 MACD histogram is expanding; the chart has no clean reversal signal yet.

Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)

Fear&Greed at 28 says the crowd is scared, but Sofia Reyes sees the trap: 65.2% of long accounts and a 1.87 long/short ratio still lean aggressively long. Taker buy/sell at 0.87 confirms sellers have the immediate microphone.

Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)

The headline mix is split between an upcoming August token unlock and the SUI ETF debut on Nasdaq, Ed Walsh says. The ETF is a constructive access story, but the nearer-term unlock headline is the one pressing on price, with broader crypto revenue cooling at Robinhood.

Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)

The data pack offers no token-supply figures beyond the reported August unlock headline, so Priya Anand cannot establish a fundamental re-rating case. The ETF debut may improve access, but it does not erase the immediate supply overhang or the 24.2% distance from the 60-day high.

Provenance
Report fingerprint
2af7b4ae5c7f8cc3bd9e8a990473c7f8c6677930baabfb0b7272c32406bd6ff1
UTC date
2026-07-30

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