SUI / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SUI’s 9.159% daily surge meets a bearish 200-day structure
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-20 00:43 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
Bullish
B
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -11.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Neutral — -2.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -5.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A decisive close above the 60-day high at 0.7826 overturns the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.634 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo is polishing a one-day candle while standing beneath a falling roof.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo is polishing a one-day candle while standing beneath a falling roof. Key support to defend sits near $0.634. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: SUI sits 18.3% below its SMA200 and the SMA50 is 18.0% under it. But the tape is waking up—price is 3.9% above SMA20, RSI is a constructive 55.2, MACD histogram is expanding at +0.004009, and the token gained 9.159% in 24 hours. My two recent underweight calls on August 8 and 7 lost against BTC by 4.7% and 3.8%; this rebound says that stale bearish framing is getting repriced.
Leo is polishing a one-day candle while standing beneath a falling roof. The 9.159% burst still leaves SUI 9.2% below the 60-day high, with the 30-day return at -7.9% and the 200-day gap at -18.3%; a MACD uptick does not erase that structure. The recent August 8 and 7 underweight losses are facts, not evidence that this bounce has repaired the trend.
I see more upside than the ruling admits: a 9.159% daily gain, +3.1% over 7 days, and MACD histogram +0.004009 expanding can carry a reflex rally toward 0.7826. The recent underweight calls on August 8 and 7 lost 4.7% and 3.8% versus BTC, so the downside thesis has already been punished twice.
The fastest failure point is the crowd: 65.0% long accounts, a 1.85 L/S ratio, and Fear & Greed at 62 are fragile support for a move whose taker buy/sell is only 1.01. The most vulnerable exhibit is the one-day +9.159% surge while price remains 18.3% beneath SMA200.
I think Leo overreached by treating improving short-term momentum as a trend reversal, while Mara overreaches if she ignores the +3.1% seven-day move and expanding MACD. The deciding condition is a close above 0.7826; below that level, the 18.0% SMA50/SMA200 bearish spread governs.
· short-term momentum extension
· crowded long accounts
· Bitcoin-driven beta rally
Invalidation: A decisive close above the 60-day high at 0.7826 overturns the bearish ruling.
Mara, the price is above SMA20 by 3.9%, not trapped at the lows, and the 7-day return is already +3.1%. Your thesis needs fresh downside, but the tape is printing higher short-term pressure.
Leo, it needs only a failed rally. RSI 55.2 is neutral territory, not ignition, and SUI remains 18.3% below SMA200 with a 30-day loss of 7.9%.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the price is above SMA20 by 3.9%, not trapped at the lows, and the 7-day return is already +3.1%. Your thesis needs fresh downside, but the tape is printing higher short-term pressure.
Leo, it needs only a failed rally. RSI 55.2 is neutral territory, not ignition, and SUI remains 18.3% below SMA200 with a 30-day loss of 7.9%.
I’m siding with the crowd-risk objection: 65.0% of accounts are long and the L/S ratio is 1.85, yet taker buy/sell is just 1.01. That’s bullish exposure without decisive aggressive demand; funding is absent, so I won’t invent a squeeze signal.
Bitcoin touching $70,000 can lift beta, but macro tide is not a repair certificate. Until SUI reclaims the 0.7826 60-day high zone, this looks like relief inside a damaged regime.
I rule for the bear side: underweight is the stronger call because the decisive exhibit is SUI’s 18.3% discount to SMA200, reinforced by the 18.0% bearish SMA50/SMA200 spread. The August 8 and 7 losses were painful, but today’s combination of +9.159% in 24 hours, +3.9% versus SMA20, and expanding MACD is a different setup from those calls. I overturn this ruling if SUI closes above 0.7826, the 60-day high.
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Same yardstick for everyone — Wilson 95% CI, settled facts only. KOL outcomes are transcribed from VeraMind's ledger, not re-graded. · Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: RSI 55.2, MACD histogram +0.004009 and expanding, price 3.9% above SMA20 but 18.3% below SMA200; conflicts: short-term momentum is improving while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 18.0%. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear & Greed 62, 65.0% long accounts with a 1.85 L/S ratio, StockTwits 8 bullish versus 1 bearish; conflicts: taker buy/sell is only 1.01 and funding is unavailable. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The headline flow is hardly clean: Yahoo Finance Australia flags a likely 15% drop, while AMBCrypto says SUI remains 87% below its all-time high. Bitcoin briefly reaching $70,000 offers a macro tailwind, but the pack also reports mixed large-cap action and a Binance delisting alert involving SUI pairs.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The pack provides no token-supply, valuation, revenue, unlock, or network-usage data, so fundamental conviction is limited. The Tether partnership is mentioned in the news, but no quantified economic impact is supplied.
03139481ebf66e996444b3c558cbe9ffe25d30cc512e10996c6130c9c65c1b573c48fe76cfdb380303016b74f46003f8e487fa46e3f85434b095720b4f300a33Committed 2026-08-21T00:20:00+00:00 · 88 rulings that day · Check the chain
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