SUI / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SUI sits at $0.6895, above SMA20 but still 22.3% below SMA200
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-14 00:42 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
Bullish
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -11.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Neutral — -2.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -5.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A decisive move above the 60-day high at $0.819 overturns the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6503 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: I’m Mara Frost.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I’m Mara Frost. Key support to defend sits near $0.6503. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’m Leo Vance. I’ll concede the ugliest number: SUI is 22.3% beneath SMA200, and the 60-day high is still 15.9% away. But that damage is stale price history, while the tape is trying to turn: RSI is 45.9, MACD histogram is expanding at +0.002305, and the token has gained 2.6% in seven days. Fear at 29 gives a rebound plenty of dry tinder.
I’m Mara Frost. Leo calls a 2.6% seven-day bounce a turn while SUI remains 8.7% lower over 30 days and trapped beneath the SMA50 and SMA200. His “stale” damage is not stale when SMA50 sits 19.5% below SMA200 and the nearest 60-day high is 15.9% overhead. That is a weak spark under a heavy ceiling, not a reversal.
I’m the aggressive desk. The bearish call may understate the room for a squeeze: Fear & Greed is 29, while MACD histogram is expanding at +0.002305 and seven-day performance is +2.6%. If $0.6503 continues to hold, the 15.9% gap to $0.819 can close faster than this ruling admits.
I’m the conservative desk. The fastest failure is a break of $0.6503, only 6.0% below the current $0.6895, because 70.6% long accounts and a 2.40 long/short ratio could turn support into forced unwinding. The settled record also matters: the last eight calls show 2 WIN and 0 LOSS for underweight, with the other six outcomes PUSH or flat-equivalent, so the bearish process has not produced a losing directional call in the shown window.
I’m the neutral desk. Leo overreached by treating +2.6% over seven days as structural repair; Mara overreached only if she treats the 29 Fear & Greed reading as irrelevant. The deciding condition is whether $0.6503 holds or fails: hold it with improving MACD and the rebound case survives, break it and the bearish ruling takes control.
· MACD histogram expanding at +0.002305
· Fear & Greed at 29 enabling a rebound
· Bitcoin strength and ETF-inflow headlines
Invalidation: A decisive move above the 60-day high at $0.819 overturns the bearish ruling.
Mara, the 60-day low is only $0.6503, just 6.0% below $0.6895. The market is holding far closer to support than resistance panic suggests.
Leo, six percent is not a fortress; it is a narrow trapdoor. If $0.6503 breaks, your entire rebound case is exposed.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60-day low is only $0.6503, just 6.0% below $0.6895. The market is holding far closer to support than resistance panic suggests.
Leo, six percent is not a fortress; it is a narrow trapdoor. If $0.6503 breaks, your entire rebound case is exposed.
I’m Theo Okafor. The crowd isn’t cleanly washed out: 70.6% of accounts are long, with a 2.40 long/short ratio. Taker flow at 1.02 is balanced, so fear has not translated into decisive demand.
I’m Dmitri Volkov. Bitcoin above $82K helps the tide, but SUI still trails its own structure by 22.3% versus SMA200. Liquidity can lift beta briefly; it cannot erase a persistent moving-average downtrend on headlines alone.
I’m Judge Aldrich. The bearish side wins, chiefly because SUI is 22.3% below SMA200 while 70.6% of accounts are already long. The short-term MACD improvement and 2.6% seven-day gain are real, but they do not outweigh the -19.5% SMA50/SMA200 structure. My ruling is invalidated by a decisive recovery above the 60-day high at $0.819; a break below $0.6503 would reinforce it.
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Same yardstick for everyone — Wilson 95% CI, settled facts only. KOL outcomes are transcribed from VeraMind's ledger, not re-graded. · Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I’m Kai Nakamura. Direction: bearish. SUI is only 0.2% above SMA20, yet 3.6% below SMA50 and 22.3% below SMA200; the SMA50/SMA200 spread is -19.5%. RSI at 45.9 and MACD histogram at +0.002305 offer a short-term countertrend pulse, but the 30-day loss of 8.7% keeps the larger chart damaged. Evidence families: moving-average structure, momentum oscillators, multi-timeframe returns, support/resistance. Conflicts: expanding MACD histogram, 7-day gain of 2.6%, and price above SMA20 oppose the bearish longer-term structure. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
I’m Sofia Reyes. Direction: bearish-leaning, with a crowded long bias hiding beneath broad fear: Fear & Greed is 29, but 70.6% of accounts are long and the long/short ratio is 2.40. Taker buy/sell at 1.02 is balanced rather than forcefully defensive, while StockTwits shows 2 bullish versus 0 bearish messages from just 2 posts. Evidence families: account positioning, taker flow, fear gauge, social chatter. Conflicts: aggregate fear and the tiny bullish social sample can support a rebound narrative. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
I’m Ed Walsh. Bitcoin’s reported move above $82K on ETF inflows and the SUI-linked bull-run headlines provide a favorable crypto backdrop, but they haven’t repaired SUI’s chart: the token is still 15.9% below its 60-day high. The quantum-safe wallet-card work is an intriguing product headline, while outage-related coverage underscores execution risk; SEC delays on tokenization and Reg Crypto add no immediate catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
I’m Priya Anand. The quantum-safe hardware-wallet initiative is strategically interesting, but the pack provides no token-supply, valuation, revenue, usage, or unlock metrics to support a fundamental re-rating. Network-outage coverage is a concrete operating risk, so the fundamental evidence is insufficient for a months-long bullish call.
53a30afbd84b4dce787579c7a93217b0befaa0491d8ff4c8b694c9ddeb344d2753f40f609f1c3a40d35f95df8482a1a109627902af10da6eeb4433219b8978bcCommitted 2026-08-15T00:20:00+00:00 · 95 rulings that day · Check the chain
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