SUI / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SUI’s 25.5% discount to its SMA200 outweighs the 7.8% 30-day bounce
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-24 00:41 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -8.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -11.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -2.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -5.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of $1.057; a stronger early warning would be RSI14 above 50 with an expanding positive MACD histogram.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6503 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your 7.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your 7. Key support to defend sits near $0.6503. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede it, Mara: SUI sits 25.5% below the SMA200 and the SMA50 is 25.8% beneath it, a nasty-looking chart. But that damage is already visible in the tape; against it, SUI is still up 7.8% over 30 days, the MACD histogram is positive at +0.002328, and ETF staking access gives the rebound a fresh engine.
Leo, your 7.8% bounce is the exhibit, not the defense: it has carried price only to $0.739, still miles under the $1.057 60-day high. RSI at 47.6 is nowhere near washed out, and a contracting positive MACD histogram says your alleged engine is losing torque.
· ETF staking-reward demand accelerates
· Fear-driven contrarian bounce
· Sui ecosystem catalysts gain traction
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of $1.057; a stronger early warning would be RSI14 above 50 with an expanding positive MACD histogram.
Mara, the 28 Fear&Greed reading tells me the crowd is already miserable. If sellers were truly in control, SUI wouldn’t be holding $0.737 intraday and sitting 13.5% above the $0.6503 low.
Leo, fear in the headline doesn’t cancel leverage in the accounts: 70.1% are long, with a 2.34 long/short ratio. Your $0.6503 support is a target-rich liquidation shelf, not proof of strength.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 28 Fear&Greed reading tells me the crowd is already miserable. If sellers were truly in control, SUI wouldn’t be holding $0.737 intraday and sitting 13.5% above the $0.6503 low.
Leo, fear in the headline doesn’t cancel leverage in the accounts: 70.1% are long, with a 2.34 long/short ratio. Your $0.6503 support is a target-rich liquidation shelf, not proof of strength.
Leo, Mara has the positioning math. The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.92, so aggressive flow is still net sell-side; I won’t call that capitulation without funding data, because funding is not provided.
I’m with Mara on regime: the Clarity Act missing its window removes a hoped-for policy catalyst, and the market is already digesting a hacked Robinhood account. SUI can bounce, but liquidity cynicism beats ETF enthusiasm while price remains below the long-term averages.
Mara wins; my decisive exhibit is the bearish moving-average structure, with SUI 25.5% below the SMA200 and the SMA50 25.8% below it. I overturn this ruling only if SUI reclaims $1.057, or if RSI14 rises above 50 while the MACD histogram re-expands decisively.
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1 of 6 settled KOL calls disagreed with our same-day verdict.
Same yardstick for everyone — Wilson 95% CI, settled facts only. KOL outcomes are transcribed from VeraMind's ledger, not re-graded. · Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: price below SMA200 by 25.5%; SMA50 below SMA200 by 25.8%; RSI14 at 47.6; contracting MACD histogram at +0.002328; support at $0.6503 and resistance at $1.057. Conflicts: price is 0.4% above SMA50, 30-day performance is +7.8%, and MACD remains positive. Sufficiency: adequate. I see a countertrend rebound trapped inside a larger downtrend, colleagues.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed at 28; 70.1% of long accounts; long/short ratio 2.34; taker buy/sell ratio 0.92. Conflicts: broad fear can support a contrarian bounce, while the long-heavy account split shows dip buyers are engaged. Sufficiency: adequate. I read crowded optimism beneath fearful headlines, which is exactly the setup that punishes late longs.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The SUI ETF debut with staking rewards is a constructive catalyst, and Hashi’s Bitcoin-application testnet adds a credible ecosystem headline. But the broader tape offers no clean liquidity lift: the Clarity Act is expected to miss its congressional window, while the Robinhood account hack reinforces a noisy, speculative market.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: ETF access with staking rewards and Sui’s Bitcoin-application work improve distribution and utility. Mubadala’s tokenization exposure across Solana, Sui, and Base is supportive, but the data pack provides no valuation, unlock, supply, or revenue figures to justify a durable months-long fundamental call.
0e2927199044a4708e01d5689c8db7023f490e1e0c7709440a8202b8965abe8910578adc3044a1b3f44953f9935e8f2d2c9f6e4a71dade480795911bdd4387d0Committed 2026-07-25T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25