SUI / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SUI’s 0.7203 bounce is trapped beneath a bearish 200-day structure
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-27 00:20 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-31 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-30 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -8.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -11.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -2.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -5.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.7241 with RSI(14) above 50 invalidates the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6503 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your spring is missing a trigger.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your spring is missing a trigger. Key support to defend sits near $0.6503. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number, colleagues: SUI is 26.1% below its SMA200 and the MACD histogram is -0.002442 and expanding. But that damage is already painted on the chart, while 30-day performance is still +5.3% and price is only 10.7% above the 0.6503 floor. If that floor holds, this is a bruised spring, not a coffin lid.
Leo, your spring is missing a trigger. The 0.6503 floor is still 10.7% below spot, while SUI has fallen 5.8% in seven days and trades below every cited moving average. A +5.3% 30-day return does not defeat an expanding negative MACD or a 26.1% SMA200 gap; it merely decorates the wreckage.
· Sharp rebound from the 0.6503 low
· Staking ETF-driven demand
· Short squeeze from crowded positioning
Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.7241 with RSI(14) above 50 invalidates the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating the 0.6503 low as inevitable. At 0.7203, the market is already close enough to that shelf for a relatively small rebound to change the geometry.
Leo, “close enough” is not support; it’s distance. Until SUI reclaims 0.7241 and then repairs the SMA20/SMA50 damage, your rebound thesis is just hopium wearing chart language.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the 0.6503 low as inevitable. At 0.7203, the market is already close enough to that shelf for a relatively small rebound to change the geometry.
Leo, “close enough” is not support; it’s distance. Until SUI reclaims 0.7241 and then repairs the SMA20/SMA50 damage, your rebound thesis is just hopium wearing chart language.
Leo, Mara has the positioning exhibit: 63.7% long accounts, a 1.76 long/short ratio, and taker buy/sell at 0.94. Fear at 30 hasn’t produced capitulation; it has produced crowded longs waiting to be squeezed.
I’m with Mara on the regime read. A coin 26.1% under SMA200 needs more than a headline about staking ETFs; without evidence of liquidity turning, every failed push toward 0.7241 is fuel for the next leg down.
I rule for the bears, and the single decisive exhibit is the bearish moving-average structure: price is 26.1% below SMA200 while SMA50 sits 24.6% below it. The crowded 63.7% long positioning adds squeeze risk. My ruling is overturned only by a sustained reclaim above 0.7241 accompanied by RSI(14) rising above 50.
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1 of 6 settled KOL calls disagreed with our same-day verdict.
Same yardstick for everyone — Wilson 95% CI, settled facts only. KOL outcomes are transcribed from VeraMind's ledger, not re-graded. · Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish. Price sits 2.3% below SMA20, 1.9% below SMA50, and 26.1% below SMA200; SMA50 is 24.6% beneath SMA200. RSI(14) at 44.4 is soft, while expanding MACD histogram at -0.002442 confirms downside momentum. The 0.6503 60-day low is the key downside level; 0.7241 is immediate resistance.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Bearish. Fear & Greed is 30, yet 63.7% of long accounts remain long with a 1.76 long/short ratio. Taker buy/sell at 0.94 shows sellers still have the initiative. Fear is visible, but positioning is not washed out.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: Neutral. The South Korea receivables-onchain test with LG CNS and SUI staking ETF headlines offer credible adoption narratives. They have not changed the tape: SUI is down 5.8% over seven days and remains 23.2% below its 60-day high.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: Neutral. Staking ETFs and tokenization headlines support the long-term utility story, but the data pack provides no token-supply, valuation, revenue, or unlock metrics. Fundamental evidence is therefore narrative-led rather than financially decisive.
69ba57c912e8c5ca1312a1bf63542778eea44bd27ab949dc6c7faac44f95ba3bace92be1bfed0b9c7e7a863093b8afefb792907be0285e95e6b33ca637a34faeCommitted 2026-07-28T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25