SUI / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SUI’s 24.0% discount to its SMA200 keeps the rebound tactical, not structural
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-21 00:23 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -8.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -11.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -2.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -5.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: A sustained close above 1.101 with RSI holding above 60 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6503 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your “climbing out” is a 7d gain of only +0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your “climbing out” is a 7d gain of only +0. Key support to defend sits near $0.6503. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, Mara: SUI is still 24.0% below its SMA200, and that’s a crater in the map. But the tape is climbing out—30d performance is +10.4%, RSI is 55.5, and the MACD histogram is expanding at +0.005705; the old damage may already be priced into this snapback.
Leo, your “climbing out” is a 7d gain of only +0.4% while price remains 24.0% under the SMA200. The +10.4% monthly move is merely a rebound inside a bearish MA structure, and with 70.5% of accounts long, your MACD candle is carrying a crowd of trapped optimists.
· short-term MACD rebound
· gas-free stablecoin-transfer adoption
· extreme-fear reversal
Invalidation: A sustained close above 1.101 with RSI holding above 60 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, the 60d low at 0.6503 is still 17.6% below spot, so sellers haven’t broken the floor. A 55.5 RSI and 1.04 taker buy/sell ratio say buyers have at least seized the near-term wheel.
Leo, 70.5% long accounts and a 2.39 L/S ratio make that wheel slippery. If 0.6503 fails, the crowded longs become forced supply, and your shallow 1.04 buy edge won’t save them.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60d low at 0.6503 is still 17.6% below spot, so sellers haven’t broken the floor. A 55.5 RSI and 1.04 taker buy/sell ratio say buyers have at least seized the near-term wheel.
Leo, 70.5% long accounts and a 2.39 L/S ratio make that wheel slippery. If 0.6503 fails, the crowded longs become forced supply, and your shallow 1.04 buy edge won’t save them.
I’m with Mara on positioning: 70.5% long is the decisive asymmetry, while funding is unavailable, so nobody gets to invent a carry tailwind. Taker flow at 1.04 is positive, but it’s barely a vote.
And I’ll add the macro stain: SUI is 24.0% below its SMA200 and 30.5% below the 60d high at 1.101. In a liquidity squeeze, extreme fear can deepen before it heals; stablecoin-transfer utility won’t override that regime by itself.
I rule for the bears; the single decisive exhibit is SUI’s 24.0% deficit to the SMA200, reinforced by the 26.6% bearish SMA50-versus-SMA200 spread. The rebound is tradable, but the structure is not repaired; my ruling is overturned only by a sustained close above 1.101 with RSI holding above 60.
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1 of 6 settled KOL calls disagreed with our same-day verdict.
Same yardstick for everyone — Wilson 95% CI, settled facts only. KOL outcomes are transcribed from VeraMind's ledger, not re-graded. · Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish. SUI sits 24.0% below its SMA200, while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 26.6%, a damaged long-term trend. RSI at 55.5 and expanding MACD histogram of +0.005705 support a short-term bounce, but 1.101 is the overhead test and 0.6503 is the key floor.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Bearish. Extreme Fear at 25 and a 70.5% long-account share create a fragile crowd: fearful in mood, crowded in direction. Taker buy/sell at 1.04 offers only a modest demand edge, while the 2.39 L/S ratio leaves longs exposed if support breaks.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: Bearish. Headlines are split between promotional “100x” speculation, reports of a potential 33% SUI drop, and the constructive gas-free stablecoin-transfer launch. The news flow lacks a clearly market-moving catalyst strong enough to repair the chart’s 24.0% SMA200 deficit.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: Neutral. The gas-free stablecoin-transfer launch is a constructive utility signal, but the data pack provides no token-supply, valuation, revenue, or adoption figures to justify a durable months-long bullish thesis.
a4aa6f863f54ed0d5f338be9d9b96225f5f72fb9c2bb838757461c93d619d6cc8493ea2a32b8f699d8d9f64cbb801351e81386c424ce90ba6ee879a91604b285Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25