SUI / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SUI’s 26.7% gap below the 200-day average keeps the rebound on probation at $0.7411
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-20 07:17 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -8.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -11.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -2.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -5.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.7587 with RSI above 55 invalidates the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6503 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your “battered spring” is still a spring under a truck: the SMA50/SMA200 spread is -26.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your “battered spring” is still a spring under a truck: the SMA50/SMA200 spread is -26. Key support to defend sits near $0.6503. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number, colleagues: SUI is 26.7% beneath its SMA200 and the SMA50 sits 26.8% below it. But the market has already dragged price to $0.7411, just 14.0% above the 60-day low at $0.6503, while 7-day and 30-day returns are positive at 2.7% and 3.9%; that smells more like a battered spring than fresh downside. RSI at 49.5 isn’t euphoric, and ETF staking access gives the rebound a credible spark.
Leo, your “battered spring” is still a spring under a truck: the SMA50/SMA200 spread is -26.8%, and the 60-day high at $1.132 remains 34.6% away. The supposedly healthy rebound has a MACD histogram of only +0.003973 and it’s contracting, while takers sell more aggressively than they buy at 0.94. Your $0.6503 cushion is not support until buyers prove they can defend it.
· ETF-driven demand and staking rewards
· Short-term rebound from Fear&Greed 29
· Macro risk appetite recovery
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.7587 with RSI above 55 invalidates the bearish ruling.
Mara, 71.4% longs and Fear&Greed at 29 mean the panic is visible and potentially exhausted; SUI is already trading near the bottom of its 60-day range.
Theo would call that positioning asymmetric, Leo: a 2.49 long/short account ratio is not capitulation, and a 0.94 taker ratio says the crowd is still absorbing supply badly.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(5)
Mara, 71.4% longs and Fear&Greed at 29 mean the panic is visible and potentially exhausted; SUI is already trading near the bottom of its 60-day range.
Theo would call that positioning asymmetric, Leo: a 2.49 long/short account ratio is not capitulation, and a 0.94 taker ratio says the crowd is still absorbing supply badly.
I’m with Mara on the flow math, Leo. Without funding data I won’t invent leverage costs, but 71.4% longs plus sub-1.0 taker flow is enough to flag liquidation fuel, not a confirmed squeeze.
And bitcoin under $64,000 while oil bounces and the AI selloff lingers is a poor liquidity backdrop, Leo. A 3.9% monthly SUI gain can vanish quickly when macro risk appetite turns.
Then I’ll set the line plainly: reclaim $0.7587, today’s high, and hold it, and your liquidation story starts losing oxygen.
I pick the bears, and the decisive exhibit is the 26.8% bearish SMA50-versus-SMA200 spread, reinforced by 71.4% long accounts and a 0.94 taker buy/sell ratio. I’m ruling bearish over weeks, with the 60-day low at $0.6503 as the magnet. A sustained close above $0.7587, coupled with RSI reclaiming 55, would overturn my ruling.
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1 of 6 settled KOL calls disagreed with our same-day verdict.
Same yardstick for everyone — Wilson 95% CI, settled facts only. KOL outcomes are transcribed from VeraMind's ledger, not re-graded. · Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I’m bearish: SUI sits 26.7% below its SMA200, while the SMA50 trails the SMA200 by 26.8%; that bearish structure outweighs price hovering just 0.2% above SMA20 and 0.1% above SMA50. RSI at 49.5 and a contracting MACD histogram of +0.003973 show no forceful reversal. Direction: bearish; evidence families: moving averages, RSI/MACD, multi-period returns; conflicts: 7d +2.7% and 30d +3.9%; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
I’m bearish: Fear&Greed is 29, yet 71.4% of long accounts are still leaning long with an L/S ratio of 2.49, while taker buy/sell is only 0.94. That is fearful headline mood paired with crowded directional exposure—the sort of setup that can feed a flush toward $0.6503. Direction: bearish; evidence families: Fear&Greed, account positioning, taker flow; conflicts: fear can support contrarian buying and the price is up 2.7% over 7 days; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The headline mix is promotional on one side—ETF launches with staking rewards and “100x” narratives—and openly bearish on the other, including a forecast calling for a 33% drop. Macro tape is hostile, with bitcoin under $64,000 as oil bounces and the AI selloff lingers. The news is noise around a weak chart, not a verified catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The pack provides no token-supply, valuation, revenue, or on-chain fundamental metrics beyond headlines. ETF access and staking rewards are constructive narratives, but they do not establish a durable cash-flow or demand advantage. I therefore assign fundamentals a neutral-to-unproven read.
6cebe096d4cdc7bbf345cef8531fa1359a5627cf9d1892c3dcd52eae49eafd78bb295d7aae9e558a346e804945fde08e4613bfb70347c2a2bf2fe08f555e4fc6Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25