SUI / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SUI’s 55.1 RSI bounce is running into the $0.78 wall while the long-term trend stays damaged
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-23 00:20 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -8.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -11.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -2.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -5.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained break above $0.78 with RSI(14) above 60 would invalidate the bearish swing ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.6503 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Mara: Leo’s rebound is exactly the number I’m attacking: +8.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Mara: Leo’s rebound is exactly the number I’m attacking: +8. Key support to defend sits near $0.6503. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
Leo: I’ll concede the ugliest number: SUI is 23.3% below SMA200, with SMA50 buried 26.2% underneath it. But that’s old damage, not a fresh short signal; price is above SMA20 and SMA50 by 2.7% and 3.9%, RSI is a healthy 55.1, and the coin has gained 8.8% in 30 days. The bear is staring at the wreckage while the rebound is already climbing out.
Mara: Leo’s rebound is exactly the number I’m attacking: +8.8% over 30 days has carried SUI only to $0.7657, still beneath the $0.78 ceiling and miles from the $1.063 60-day high. A positive MACD histogram of +0.005368 is contracting, so his “climb” is losing thrust at resistance. Worse, 71.5% of accounts are long; that is fuel for the flush, not proof of durable demand.
· Hashi testnet drives a sharp adoption-led repricing
· Fear at 31 sparks a squeeze
· SUI clears $0.78 resistance
Invalidation: A sustained break above $0.78 with RSI(14) above 60 would invalidate the bearish swing ruling.
Mara, you’re treating $0.78 like a concrete bunker when the 7-day return is already +3.6% and RSI hasn’t reached overbought territory. If buyers clear that wall, your crowded-long argument becomes forced-covering gasoline.
Leo, the wall is real because the latest close is $0.7654 and the session high was only $0.7655—no breakout, just a nose pressed against resistance. Your gasoline is mostly 71.5% longs waiting to be liquidated.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating $0.78 like a concrete bunker when the 7-day return is already +3.6% and RSI hasn’t reached overbought territory. If buyers clear that wall, your crowded-long argument becomes forced-covering gasoline.
Leo, the wall is real because the latest close is $0.7654 and the session high was only $0.7655—no breakout, just a nose pressed against resistance. Your gasoline is mostly 71.5% longs waiting to be liquidated.
Leo, I checked the flow exhibit: taker buy/sell is 1.01, effectively balanced, and funding is unavailable. That gives you no positioning confirmation for a squeeze; Mara’s crowded-long warning has the cleaner data support.
Mara, don’t oversell it either: Fear&Greed at 31 can reverse violently if liquidity improves. But with no macro-liquidity evidence in this pack, I’m not granting that rebound a free pass.
I award the bear side, and the decisive exhibit is the 71.5% long-account concentration against a contracting +0.005368 MACD histogram beneath the $0.78 resistance zone. I would overturn this ruling only on a sustained break above $0.78 with RSI holding above 60.
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1 of 6 settled KOL calls disagreed with our same-day verdict.
Same yardstick for everyone — Wilson 95% CI, settled facts only. KOL outcomes are transcribed from VeraMind's ledger, not re-graded. · Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Direction bearish. RSI(14) at 55.1 and price above SMA20 by 2.7% and SMA50 by 3.9% show short-term recovery, but price remains 23.3% below SMA200 and SMA50 sits 26.2% below SMA200. Evidence families: momentum, moving averages, MACD, multi-timeframe returns. Conflict: MACD histogram is positive at +0.005368 and 7d/30d returns are +3.6%/+8.8%, yet the primary trend is still bearish. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Direction bearish. Fear&Greed at 31 says the crowd is frightened, but 71.5% of long accounts and a 2.51 long/short ratio reveal bullish positioning beneath that fear; taker buy/sell at 1.01 adds no convincing demand surge. Evidence families: sentiment index, account positioning, taker flow. Conflict: headline fear can fuel a rebound, while crowded longs create liquidation risk. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: Hashi’s testnet launch and Bitcoin-collateralized lending narrative are genuine constructive developments, while Coinbase staking access broadens SUI’s utility. But the immediate tape is still pressing against a $0.78 wall, and the broader crypto Clarity Act headlines are political process—not a fresh SUI catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: Hashi’s Guardian Layer and BTC-collateralized lending could expand DeFi use on Sui, but a testnet is not yet monetized adoption. The data pack provides no token-supply, valuation, revenue, or unlock schedule figures, so fundamentals cannot outweigh a price still 23.3% below SMA200.
2af6c9a6ca933cfc8071d65a7c083169885913cf8f227c38adedb5f4c2fb96228624d818ee7811d0e765aa63f60423eb1e28fec5823b0c3f5024085df84084a2Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25