SUI / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SUI at $0.6523 faces a bearish structure, with RSI 35.3 and the 60-day low only 2.8% below
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-19 00:55 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
Bullish
B
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -13.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -11.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Neutral — -2.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -5.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — +0.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.7826 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.634 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo's $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo's $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.634. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugly print: SUI is down 14.7% in 30 days, RSI is 35.3, and the 60-day low at $0.634 is close enough to smell. But that is precisely where stale fear gets priced in; the coin is only 2.8% above the low, and a flush near support can become a springboard. We logged underweight calls on August 8 and 7 that lost 4.7% and 3.8% versus BTC, so I won't pretend the bear script has been flawless.
Leo's $0.634 springboard is a bedtime story, not evidence. Price is below every listed moving average, the SMA50 sits 18.3% below the SMA200, and the MACD histogram is expanding at -0.001414; proximity to a low proves vulnerability, not a floor. The August 8 and 7 underweight losses are real, but they were relative-to-BTC outcomes and do not erase SUI's 14.7% monthly collapse.
· RSI 35.3 rebound from support
· SUI holds $0.634 despite weak structure
· Long-account crowd unwinds become a squeeze
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.7826 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, if $0.634 is so vulnerable, why is RSI already at 35.3 rather than showing fresh momentum exhaustion? A crowded fear print can snap upward before your moving-average obituary catches up.
Leo, RSI at 35.3 is not a reversal signal while MACD deterioration is expanding. The tape has already rejected the partnership narrative and remains 16.7% below $0.7826.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, if $0.634 is so vulnerable, why is RSI already at 35.3 rather than showing fresh momentum exhaustion? A crowded fear print can snap upward before your moving-average obituary catches up.
Leo, RSI at 35.3 is not a reversal signal while MACD deterioration is expanding. The tape has already rejected the partnership narrative and remains 16.7% below $0.7826.
I’m with Mara on the crowd mechanics: 66.5% of accounts are long, yet taker buy/sell is only 0.83. That is bullish exposure meeting weaker aggressive demand, and funding is unavailable, so no funding-based squeeze thesis is supportable.
Leo, the macro tape offers no liquidity rescue in this pack. The market headlines are mixed, while SUI alone is sliding; until price reclaims structure, the low is a magnet rather than a launchpad.
I rule bearish, and the decisive exhibit is the combination of price below SMA200 by 25.1% with an expanding -0.001414 MACD histogram. The recent August 7 and 8 underweight losses versus BTC came during relative strength, but today’s absolute structure is weaker and the coin sits near $0.634 without reversal evidence. My ruling is invalidated by a sustained break above the 60-day high resistance at $0.7826.
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Same yardstick for everyone — Wilson 95% CI, settled facts only. KOL outcomes are transcribed from VeraMind's ledger, not re-graded. · Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish. Price sits 4.1% below SMA20, 8.4% below SMA50, and 25.1% below SMA200; SMA50 is 18.3% under SMA200. RSI at 35.3 is soft, while the MACD histogram at -0.001414 is expanding; the 60-day low at $0.634 is the immediate fault line.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Bearish. Fear&Greed is 46, taker buy/sell is 0.83, and 66.5% of long accounts create a fragile bullish crowd. StockTwits leans bullish 8 to 3, but that optimism conflicts with weak execution flow; evidence is adequate across sentiment, account skew, and taker activity.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: Headlines are bluntly negative: Yahoo Finance Australia flags a possible 15% drop, Cryptonews projects $0.500384 by August 23, and MarketWatch reports SUI declining. The Tether partnership has not stopped the tape from falling 14.7% over 30 days.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: The data pack offers no new SUI-specific token-economics figures to offset the price deterioration. The Tether partnership is a headline catalyst, but its market impact is currently outweighed by SUI trading 87% below its all-time high according to the cited AMBCrypto headline.
39c2da801f5fef38c6b9114085eea7c2187eeeb15e3b1e3c22260911674102410f1b74c5d5aa8bd9fe0e079b811d2482b9bd27566afea1ff19e554ca5230c439Committed 2026-08-20T00:20:00+00:00 · 73 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23