JUP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
JUP hovers at $0.1692 with RSI 31.3, but the $0.1643 floor is doing the heavy lifting
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-15 01:28 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Overweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — +3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Underweight — +16.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Neutral — +6.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Neutral — -5.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Overweight — -8.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -8.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — -5.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +6.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +6.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -7.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above the SMA20, approximately 8.0% above the current $0.1692 price, overturns the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1643 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: I’m Mara Frost.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I’m Mara Frost. Key support to defend sits near $0.1643. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’m Leo Vance. Yes, JUP is down 13.9% over 30 days and sits 33.3% below the 60-day high, but RSI 31.3 is a bruised spring, not proof of a broken engine. The SMA50 remains 9.1% above SMA200 and MACD downside is contracting; that’s the stale damage, with $0.1643 close enough to force a snapback. I also acknowledge my side’s 2026-08-03 overweight call lost 8.4% versus BTC—this setup differs because the oversold reading and contracting histogram are now explicit.
I’m Mara Frost. Leo’s “spring” is resting 2.9% above the 60-day low while price remains beneath every key short- and medium-term average: -8.0% versus SMA20, -15.4% versus SMA50, and -7.7% versus SMA200. The SMA50/SMA200 spread at +9.1% is backward-looking camouflage, not a reversal signal. The record also includes the 2026-08-03 overweight LOSS at -8.4% versus BTC; calling weakness stale before price proves it is exactly how hopium gets priced.
I’m the aggressive desk: the bearish call leaves a sharp relief path underappreciated because RSI is 31.3, MACD downside is contracting, and the 60-day low is only 2.9% below. If $0.1643 holds, the gap back toward $0.1696 can become a fast squeeze without crowded longs.
I’m the conservative desk: the fastest failure is a clean break below $0.1643, because support is the only nearby structural cushion. The fragile exhibit is the oversold thesis—RSI 31.3 can stay weak while price remains 8.0% below SMA20.
I’m the neutral desk: Leo overreached by treating the SMA50/SMA200 +9.1% structure as current momentum, while Mara overreaches if she assumes support must fail. The deciding condition is whether JUP holds $0.1643 or reclaims the SMA20 threshold 8.0% above $0.1692.
· Oversold RSI bounce
· Support at $0.1643 holds
· Solana DeFi headline catalyst
Invalidation: A sustained move above the SMA20, approximately 8.0% above the current $0.1692 price, overturns the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating $0.1643 like a trapdoor when it’s a defined support shelf; RSI 31.3 and a contracting MACD histogram make the next move asymmetric toward relief.
Leo, support is not a reversal. A shelf only matters after reclaiming $0.1696 and then the SMA20, while JUP is still 13.9% lower over 30 days.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(6)
Mara, you’re treating $0.1643 like a trapdoor when it’s a defined support shelf; RSI 31.3 and a contracting MACD histogram make the next move asymmetric toward relief.
Leo, support is not a reversal. A shelf only matters after reclaiming $0.1696 and then the SMA20, while JUP is still 13.9% lower over 30 days.
I’m Theo Okafor: the crowd isn’t aggressively long—only 46.2% of long accounts, L/S 0.86, and taker buy/sell 0.97. That removes a crowded-long fuel source, but it also shows buyers aren’t taking control.
I’m Dmitri Volkov. Macro headlines about crypto CEOs and a conditional bank charter may lift the tide, but JUP’s own tape is down 8.2% in seven days; liquidity optimism has not reached this chart.
Dmitri, that seven-day slide is precisely why a mean-reversion strike can appear before the headlines improve. Mara still needs a break below $0.1643 to turn the exhaustion case into continuation.
And Leo needs a reclaim above $0.1696 merely to clear today’s range high. Until then, the nearest hard fact is price beneath three moving averages, not a hypothetical bounce.
I’m Judge Aldrich: the bear side wins on the decisive exhibit—JUP trades below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200 while sitting only 2.9% above $0.1643. The current call differs from the recent losing 2026-08-03 overweight call because today’s ruling follows explicit multi-average weakness, 7-day and 30-day losses, and no confirmed funding support. I overturn this ruling on a sustained move above the SMA20, which is 8.0% above the current price.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I’m Kai Nakamura, and the chart is structurally weak: price sits 8.0% below SMA20, 15.4% below SMA50, and 7.7% below SMA200. RSI 31.3 and a contracting negative MACD histogram offer bounce fuel, but $0.1643 is only 2.9% away.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
I’m Sofia Reyes: Fear&Greed is 34, long accounts are just 46.2%, and the L/S ratio is 0.86. Taker buy/sell at 0.97 confirms defensive flow; sentiment is fearful, but not capitulated.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
I’m Ed Walsh. The Jupiter-specific headlines split between a reported 14% rise on returning Solana DeFi activity and an airdrop plan revision after a failed governance vote. The broader crypto headlines are supportive, yet neither materially repairs JUP’s immediate chart damage.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
I’m Priya Anand. Jupiter remains central to Solana’s exchange-aggregation narrative, but the data pack gives no token-economics figures, supply schedule, or valuation anchor. The failed airdrop-plan revision is a governance overhang, while the product headlines are not enough to establish fundamental upside.
5aa8be8704a0dd8eb899651d36ace169c1474084fde107ebf682902ea441c598b9992f9aaddcb66d097da88829da3966f8938204256939eecd449461ccbccfffCommitted 2026-08-16T00:20:00+00:00 · 96 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23