JUP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
JUP’s 42.1 RSI cannot mask a 9.3% discount to its SMA20
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-20 07:39 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Neutral — -4.5% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — -11.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Overweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — +3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — +16.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Neutral — +6.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Neutral — -5.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Overweight — -8.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -8.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — -5.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +6.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +6.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained close above $0.2038 with RSI(14) above 50.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1441 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that “steel spine” is a floor several floors below the market, not a buy signal.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that “steel spine” is a floor several floors below the market, not a buy signal. Key support to defend sits near $0.1441. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, colleagues: JUP sits 9.3% below SMA20 and has shed 7.2% in 30 days. But the chart still has a steel spine—price is 4.9% above SMA200 and SMA50 leads SMA200 by 7.6%; with RSI at 42.1 and MACD compression underway, the sellers’ fuel is burning stale.
Leo, that “steel spine” is a floor several floors below the market, not a buy signal. JUP is below both SMA20 and SMA50, down 5.7% in seven days, and the contracting negative MACD at -0.003427 says your supposed exhaustion is merely a quieter leak.
· bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure
· short-covering from 0.71 L/S positioning
· product-news catalyst
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained close above $0.2038 with RSI(14) above 50.
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.1441 while we’re at $0.1953; the market has already rejected the abyss. A 42.1 RSI is bruised, not capitulated.
Leo, rejection is a story; the tape is the invoice. JUP failed to hold $0.2038 intraday and remains 22.9% below $0.2534.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.1441 while we’re at $0.1953; the market has already rejected the abyss. A 42.1 RSI is bruised, not capitulated.
Leo, rejection is a story; the tape is the invoice. JUP failed to hold $0.2038 intraday and remains 22.9% below $0.2534.
Leo, the positioning isn’t giving you a squeeze gift: long accounts are 41.6%, L/S is 0.71, and taker buy/sell is 0.97. Theo’s dry conclusion: even the crowd’s hopium is underweight.
Mara’s right on regime. With bitcoin pushed under $64,000 amid oil strength and an AI selloff, small-cap liquidity gets pulled through the drain first.
I award the bearish side, and the single decisive exhibit is JUP’s 9.3% break below SMA20 alongside a 7.2% 30-day loss. I would overturn this ruling only if JUP reclaims and holds $0.2038 with RSI(14) above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish. JUP trades at $0.1953, 9.3% below SMA20 and 2.6% below SMA50, while the 60-day high at $0.2534 remains 22.9% away. RSI(14) is 42.1 and MACD histogram is negative at -0.003427, though the SMA50/SMA200 spread remains bullish at +7.6%. Direction: bearish. Evidence families: trend position, momentum, moving-average structure. Conflicts: bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure and price 4.9% above SMA200. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Bearish. Fear & Greed is 29, long accounts are only 41.6% with a 0.71 long/short ratio, and taker buy/sell is 0.97. That is defensive positioning, but it has not produced a durable reversal as JUP is down 5.7% over seven days and 7.2% over 30 days. Direction: bearish. Evidence families: crowd fear, account positioning, taker flow, recent performance. Conflicts: low long exposure can become fuel for a squeeze. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The headlines are utility-heavy—prediction-market beta, Solana aggregation, and a $3.3M gacha-opening burst—rather than a clearly material catalyst for token demand. Broader tape is hostile, with oil strength and the AI selloff pushing bitcoin below $64,000. News direction: bearish to neutral.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: The pack offers product-activity headlines but no token-supply, revenue, valuation, or emissions data. The $3.3M gacha-pack opening figure shows engagement, not necessarily JUP value capture. Fundamentals direction: neutral, with limited evidence.
7105277caf0f3541f34f36add58c7d46a74736b70bea8280c8ec737570b1b35abb295d7aae9e558a346e804945fde08e4613bfb70347c2a2bf2fe08f555e4fc6Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25