CoinVerdict

JUP / The Verdict

generated 2026-07-28 01:28 UTC
$0.18
-4.87% · 24h
price as of 2026-07-28 01:28 UTC
Price source
📜 Archived verdict of 2026-07-28 — latest verdict → JUP
The Verdict
Underweight

JUP slips 4.87% to $0.1818 as RSI sits at 36.9, with fear overpowering its bullish moving-average structure

⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-28 01:28 UTC

Technicalsignal strength Bearish C
Measures how strong the directional signal from price structure is. An analyst lists independent evidence families (trend, momentum, structure) from the data pack; code converts the count to a letter — 3+ families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicting evidence caps the grade at C; insufficient information gets no grade at all. The letter is signal strength — direction is shown separately. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Sentimentsignal strength Bearish C
Same scale as Technical, applied to crowd evidence — fear/greed, positioning, and flow. 3+ independent evidence families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicts cap at C; not enough information, no grade. The letter says how loud the crowd signal is, not which way price will go. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction Shorts pay A+
Measures perpetual funding-rate pressure — risk, not direction. The smaller the 8-hour normalized rate, the calmer the market: under 0.5 bp = A+, then A, B, C, D as pressure grows, F beyond 10 bp (extreme crowding). Who pays (longs or shorts) is shown separately. Read A+ as “calm”, never as “bullish”. (funding_rule_v1) full scales →
KOL Consensussettled-record quality Archive building
Measures the quality and strength of on-record KOL consensus. Only authors with 20+ settled calls count. The majority share sets the base letter (85%+ = A+ down to 55%+ = D), but few qualified authors cap it — under 5 authors we show the direction and withhold the grade while the record builds. (kol_rule_v1) full scales →

Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.

Track record
3W–0L–1P · 2 neutral · since 2026-07-15
95% CI 43.8–100.0% · n=3 · early sample
2026-07-28 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-04
2026-07-27 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-03
2026-07-26 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-02
2026-07-24 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-07-31
2026-07-23 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-07-30
2026-07-22 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-07-29
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-21 · JUP price $0.1972 · BTC $65161.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-28 · JUP price $0.1818 · BTC $63644.6
vs BTC
-5.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-20 · JUP price $0.1953 · BTC $63745.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-27 · JUP price $0.1908 · BTC $65216
vs BTC
-4.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-19 · JUP price $0.1928 · BTC $64708.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-26 · JUP price $0.18634 · BTC $64416
vs BTC
-2.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-17 · JUP price $0.1935 · BTC $63739.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-24 · JUP price $0.1886 · BTC $64928
vs BTC
-4.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-16 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-16 · JUP price $0.2062 · BTC $64777.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-23 · JUP price $0.1925 · BTC $66209
vs BTC
-8.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-15 — Neutral — -7.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-15 · JUP price $0.2112 · BTC $65000.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-22 · JUP price $0.2009 · BTC $66588
vs BTC
-7.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →

The evidence
Bull evidence
Bear evidence ✓ aligns with this verdict
Market state

coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read

Price
Price at verdict$0.1818 -4.9% 24h
60d high0.2534 -28.4%
60d low0.1441 +26.0%
RSI(14)36.9
vs 200d SMA -1.9%
30d change -13.7%
Funding (net) -0.16 bp/8h
Fear & Greed29 · Fear
Long accounts54.5% long

snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges

Read this ruling three ways

Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.

The Deliberation
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
VS
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
⚔ Key clashes
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
TO
Positioning Desk (Theo Okafor)
DV
Macro Desk (Dmitri Volkov)
JA
Risk Committee · Final Ruling
Chief Adjudicator (Aldrich)
DirectionBearish
ConfidenceMedium
HorizonWeeks (swing)
Key support$0.179
Key resistance$0.196
InvalidationA sustained reclaim above $0.196 would overturn the bearish swing ruling and signal that the $0.179 support held.
Main risksRSI 36.9-driven relief rallyBullish SMA50/SMA200 structure at +9.4%Solana DeFi narrative revival
KOL Settlement Seat
Calls on record: 0 up · 0 down

Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind

Analyst notes
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)

I’m Kai Nakamura: JUP is below the SMA20 by 7.6% and below the SMA50 by 10.4%, so the tape is damaged. RSI at 36.9 and a contracting MACD histogram at -0.001854 offer bounce potential, but $0.179 is the immediate floor and $0.2534 is a distant ceiling.

Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)

I’m Sofia Reyes: Fear & Greed is 29, taker buy/sell is 0.88, and JUP has fallen 9.2% over seven days and 13.7% over 30 days. The 54.5% long-account share and 1.20 long/short ratio show traders are still leaning long into weakness—classic fuel for another flush.

Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)

I’m Ed Walsh: The headlines are promotional, calling Jupiter a leading Solana aggregator and highlighting a prior 14% rise as Solana traders returned to DeFi. The actionable macro headline is less friendly: the U.S. Senate postponed the crypto Clarity Act, keeping regulatory progress off the near-term calendar.

Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)

I’m Priya Anand: The data pack provides no token-supply, revenue, valuation, or protocol-usage figures, so there’s no fundamental exhibit strong enough to justify a months-long call. Jupiter’s Solana and DeFi positioning is a narrative, not a quantified earnings engine here.

Provenance
Report fingerprint
915aaa744ac562c6920ed6edb7ec11aae8193d5edbd2988483c21bb2f5adcdae
UTC date
2026-07-28

Not yet committed. Today's rulings are hashed into the chain after the daily run — until then this report has a fingerprint but no chain entry. · Check the chain

SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.

Recent verdicts
Related verdicts