JUP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
JUP is pressing $0.1666 support with RSI at 31.6, but the chart still leans bearish
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-14 01:36 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Overweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Overweight — +3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Underweight — +16.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Neutral — +6.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Neutral — -5.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Overweight — -8.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -8.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Neutral — -5.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — +6.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — +6.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Neutral — -7.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained reclaim of approximately $0.1840, corresponding to the stated 8.4% discount to SMA20, would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1666 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.1666. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: JUP is down 18.0% over 30 days and the MACD histogram is expanding at -0.001342. But RSI at 31.6 and price just 1.7% above the $0.1666 60-day low say the washout is visible and potentially priced in, while SMA50 still sits 9.6% above SMA200. The recent record proves the bear case isn’t automatic: the August 4 underweight call won at -6.1% versus BTC, but August 3’s overweight call lost at -8.4%; regime calls have been noisy, not a one-way verdict.
Leo, your $0.1666 floor is a trapdoor, not a cushion: price is already 8.4% below SMA20 and 15.7% below SMA50, with downside momentum expanding. RSI at 31.6 can stay weak while a token breaks support, and the failed August 3 overweight call at -8.4% versus BTC shows how badly bullish conviction can be punished. The August 4 underweight win at -6.1% is the datapoint aligned with today’s broken trend.
· RSI 31.6 oversold rebound
· $0.1666 support holds
· mild taker-buy skew at 1.03
Invalidation: A sustained reclaim of approximately $0.1840, corresponding to the stated 8.4% discount to SMA20, would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating RSI 31.6 as irrelevant, but a market sitting 1.7% above $0.1666 has already absorbed a lot of fear. The 9.6% SMA50-over-SMA200 spread says the larger structure hasn’t fully cracked.
Leo, that moving-average spread is rear-view glass; current price is 15.7% under SMA50 and MACD is worsening. A $0.1666 break would turn your supposed absorption into fresh price discovery.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating RSI 31.6 as irrelevant, but a market sitting 1.7% above $0.1666 has already absorbed a lot of fear. The 9.6% SMA50-over-SMA200 spread says the larger structure hasn’t fully cracked.
Leo, that moving-average spread is rear-view glass; current price is 15.7% under SMA50 and MACD is worsening. A $0.1666 break would turn your supposed absorption into fresh price discovery.
I’m with the data, not the drama: 47.9% long accounts and an L/S ratio of 0.92 show no obvious long crowd to unwind, while taker buy/sell at 1.03 is mildly constructive. Still, funding is missing, so nobody gets to claim a squeeze from this pack.
The macro tape offers no rescue: SEC delays on tokenization and Reg Crypto remove a headline catalyst. A fearful market can bounce, but without liquidity evidence that bounce is merely a countertrend spark.
I rule for the bears: the decisive exhibit is the expanding -0.001342 MACD histogram alongside price 15.7% below SMA50. The recent August 4 underweight win at -6.1% versus BTC supports this direction, unlike the August 3 overweight loss at -8.4%; I overturn the ruling only if JUP reclaims $0.1840, the approximate level implied by the stated 8.4% gap to SMA20, and momentum stops deteriorating.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
The structure is damaged: price sits 8.4% below SMA20, 15.7% below SMA50, and MACD histogram is -0.001342 and expanding. RSI at 31.6 is near oversold, while the 60-day low at $0.1666 is only 1.7% below price; the lone counterpoint is SMA50 remaining 9.6% above SMA200.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear&Greed is 29, and only 47.9% of accounts are long with an L/S ratio of 0.92, so speculative enthusiasm has already been purged. Taker buy/sell at 1.03 offers a faint bid, but funding is unavailable and StockTwits supplied zero messages, leaving no confirmed crowding catalyst.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The Jupiter-specific headlines are promotional or operational, including a reported 14% rise as Solana traders returned to DeFi aggregators, but the pack also flags a failed governance vote over revising the airdrop plan. Broader SEC delays around tokenization and Reg Crypto remove a clean regulatory catalyst for a near-term rerating.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Jupiter remains a leading Solana DEX aggregator by the supplied headlines, but the pack gives no revenue, fee, token-unlock, supply, or valuation data. The failed airdrop-plan vote is a governance overhang, so the fundamental case cannot outweigh the deteriorating price structure.
e4ef9c8e9fc8ff63ab0820a66ec830b236216fed3eb7f03d18d9fcdc69fbc0cc53f40f609f1c3a40d35f95df8482a1a109627902af10da6eeb4433219b8978bcCommitted 2026-08-15T00:20:00+00:00 · 95 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23