JUP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
JUP trades at $0.1925, with RSI 41.5 and a 24.0% gap to the 60-day high
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-23 00:36 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Neutral — -4.5% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — -11.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Overweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — +3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — +16.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Neutral — +6.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Neutral — -5.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Overweight — -8.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -8.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — -5.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +6.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +6.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.208 with RSI reclaiming 50 would invalidate the bearish swing ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1441 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your SMA200 defense is a life raft floating beneath a falling boat.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your SMA200 defense is a life raft floating beneath a falling boat. Key support to defend sits near $0.1441. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, Mara: JUP is down 4.133% in 24 hours and sits 7.7% below SMA20. But that damage is already etched into the tape; the real structural exhibit is price still 3.5% above SMA200 while SMA50 leads SMA200 by 7.7%. With the 60-day low at $0.1441, the market has room to mean-revert before the longer trend is declared dead.
Leo, your SMA200 defense is a life raft floating beneath a falling boat. JUP is already 24.0% below the $0.2534 60-day high, down 5.8% over 30 days, and RSI at 41.5 has not reached the washout that would make your reversal case compelling. The immediate evidence says sellers control the path, not that the decline is priced in.
· Bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure
· Fear-driven contrarian reversal
· Unquantified product adoption catalyst
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.208 with RSI reclaiming 50 would invalidate the bearish swing ruling.
Mara, you’re treating a 41.5 RSI like a death certificate; it’s weak, not oversold. A $0.1441 low against a $0.1925 price leaves a defined downside floor and a clean setup if momentum turns.
Leo, the floor is 33.6% below spot, hardly a nearby defense. Price is below both SMA20 and SMA50, and MACD is still negative at -0.002369; your reversal needs a trigger the pack doesn’t show.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating a 41.5 RSI like a death certificate; it’s weak, not oversold. A $0.1441 low against a $0.1925 price leaves a defined downside floor and a clean setup if momentum turns.
Leo, the floor is 33.6% below spot, hardly a nearby defense. Price is below both SMA20 and SMA50, and MACD is still negative at -0.002369; your reversal needs a trigger the pack doesn’t show.
Leo, I can’t manufacture a positioning tailwind: only 44.4% of long accounts, a 0.80 L/S ratio, and 0.93 taker buy/sell confirm defensive flow. That can become contrarian fuel, but today it reads as absent demand.
Mara has the regime argument. A 31 Fear&Greed reading and contested crypto legislation headlines are not liquidity support; they make a thin altcoin bounce easier to fade.
I side with Mara and the bears; the single decisive exhibit is JUP’s price sitting 7.7% below SMA20 while the MACD histogram remains negative at -0.002369. I would overturn this ruling on a sustained close above $0.208, reclaiming the broken short-term trend with momentum confirmation.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish near-term. Price sits 7.7% below SMA20 and 3.9% below SMA50, while RSI is 41.5 and MACD histogram remains negative at -0.002369. The longer structure is not broken: price is 3.5% above SMA200 and SMA50 is 7.7% above SMA200. Direction: bearish; evidence families: trend, momentum, moving averages, support/resistance; conflicts: bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure and price above SMA200; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Bearish positioning is visible in Fear&Greed at 31, a 0.80 long/short account ratio, and taker buy/sell at 0.93. That is defensive rather than capitulation, but it offers little evidence of aggressive demand. Direction: bearish; evidence families: fear gauge, account positioning, taker flow; conflicts: the low long share can provide contrarian fuel; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The headline mix is promotional on Jupiter’s DEX aggregation, review coverage, and prediction-market beta, but it supplies no quantified catalyst in this pack. Crypto policy headlines remain politically contested around the Clarity Act, offering no clean JUP-specific tailwind.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: The pack identifies Jupiter as a Solana DEX aggregator and notes a prediction-market beta launch, but provides no token-supply, revenue, valuation, or adoption figures. Fundamental conviction is therefore anchored to product headlines, not measurable economics.
505fc974e321738f7abadeb4904e5f607459c4f75378bb5f686b238ca9ce366f8624d818ee7811d0e765aa63f60423eb1e28fec5823b0c3f5024085df84084a2Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25