JUP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
JUP slips to $0.1928 with RSI 40.6 and price 10.7% below its SMA20
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-19 06:57 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Neutral — -4.5% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — -11.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Overweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — +3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — +16.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Neutral — +6.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Neutral — -5.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Overweight — -8.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -8.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — -5.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +6.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +6.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: A decisive close above $0.1965 with RSI(14) above 50 invalidates the bearish swing ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1926 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo is polishing the SMA200 like a trophy while ignoring the active battlefield.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo is polishing the SMA200 like a trophy while ignoring the active battlefield. Key support to defend sits near $0.1926. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number, Mara: JUP is 10.7% under SMA20 and down 4.1% over seven days. But the tape is not broken when price still sits 3.5% above SMA200 and SMA50 towers 7.6% over SMA200; that’s a pullback inside a larger bullish chassis, while the contracting MACD at -0.004029 says the downside thrust is losing fuel.
Leo is polishing the SMA200 like a trophy while ignoring the active battlefield. JUP closed at $0.1928, barely above the $0.1926 session low, sits below both SMA20 and SMA50, and has failed to turn RSI 40.6 into momentum. A distant 60-day low at $0.1441 is not support until price proves it can stop making immediate damage.
· Bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure at +7.6%
· Price remains 3.5% above SMA200
· Fear-driven reversal from RSI 40.6
Invalidation: A decisive close above $0.1965 with RSI(14) above 50 invalidates the bearish swing ruling.
Mara, you’re treating a 1.23% daily loss as a structural collapse. The $0.1441 60-day low is 33.8% below spot, while the bullish SMA50/SMA200 spread is still 7.6%.
Leo, the 60-day low is exactly the risk you’re dismissing: the 60-day high at $0.2534 is already 23.9% away, and JUP is losing the short averages now. Your bullish structure has no near-term trigger.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating a 1.23% daily loss as a structural collapse. The $0.1441 60-day low is 33.8% below spot, while the bullish SMA50/SMA200 spread is still 7.6%.
Leo, the 60-day low is exactly the risk you’re dismissing: the 60-day high at $0.2534 is already 23.9% away, and JUP is losing the short averages now. Your bullish structure has no near-term trigger.
I’m with Mara on the positioning read, Leo: Fear&Greed is 28, long accounts are only 42.3%, and the L/S ratio is 0.73. That’s not a crowded-long liquidation setup, but it also gives buyers no positioning tailwind; taker buy/sell at 1.00 is dead neutral.
And there’s no macro catalyst in these headlines to rescue the chart. Without a JUP-specific liquidity impulse, a coin trading 10.7% below SMA20 is the weaker branch of the market tree.
I rule for the bears, and the decisive exhibit is JUP’s close at $0.1928 against the $0.1926 session low while sitting 10.7% below SMA20. The bullish long-term averages keep this from being a high-confidence collapse call, but the immediate trend is down. I overturn this ruling on a decisive reclaim of $0.1965, the latest candle high, accompanied by RSI(14) rising above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish short-term structure: JUP is 10.7% below SMA20 and 3.8% below SMA50, while RSI(14) sits at 40.6 and MACD histogram is negative at -0.004029. The longer frame still has a bullish wrinkle: price is 3.5% above SMA200 and SMA50 is 7.6% above SMA200. Direction: mixed; evidence families: moving averages, RSI, MACD, multi-horizon returns; conflicts: short-term weakness versus bullish long-term MA alignment; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Fear is doing the talking at 28, but the crowd isn't capitulating: only 42.3% of long accounts remain, with an L/S ratio of 0.73 and taker buy/sell at 1.00. That is bearish positioning without an aggressive sell imbalance. Direction: bearish; evidence families: Fear&Greed, account positioning, taker flow; conflicts: fear is elevated but taker flow is neutral; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The supplied headlines focus on Zcash privacy, Polymarket restrictions, digital banking, Bitcoin governance, and Brazil's payments system. None provides a direct JUP catalyst, liquidity event, or Jupiter-specific fundamental development.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: The data pack provides no JUP-specific token-supply, unlock, revenue, usage, or governance figures. Fundamental conviction is therefore unavailable from this exhibit set, and the headline news does not establish a coin-specific valuation change.
a1793a727225471d4f6158c25bb659658770094cc11ba4782a9010ad8049c5a5f4fc7312c5be5f7d7eea56f69a8be2b8607d9ddd9672db388d49defd4b1498d1Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25