JUP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
JUP slides 6.114% to $0.1935 as expanding MACD losses overpower its bullish moving-average structure
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-17 00:35 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Neutral — -4.5% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — -11.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Overweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — +3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — +16.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Neutral — +6.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Neutral — -5.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Overweight — -8.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -8.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — -5.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +6.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +6.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.1966 accompanied by RSI(14) above 50 invalidates the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1925 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that backbone is his favorite mirage.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that backbone is his favorite mirage. Key support to defend sits near $0.1925. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: JUP is down 6.114% in 24 hours and sits 11.2% beneath SMA20. But the tape is selling into a still-bullish backbone—price is 3.9% above SMA200 and SMA50 leads SMA200 by 7.4%; this looks like a flush, not a structural funeral.
Leo, that backbone is his favorite mirage. The decisive evidence is the expanding -0.004381 MACD histogram alongside price below both SMA20 and SMA50; a 3.9% cushion over SMA200 is not support until buyers prove they can reclaim $0.1966 and stop printing lower intraday closes.
· Contrarian rebound from Fear & Greed 27
· Bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure
· Broader institutional crypto flows
Invalidation: A sustained move above $0.1966 accompanied by RSI(14) above 50 invalidates the bearish ruling.
Mara, RSI 40.8 isn’t capitulation, but it leaves room for a snapback before the long-term trend breaks. You’re treating one bad session as a verdict.
Leo, the one session is reinforced by 7-day performance of -4.8%, a $0.1925 intraday low, and price 23.6% below the $0.2534 60-day high. That is distribution-shaped behavior, not a clean reset.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, RSI 40.8 isn’t capitulation, but it leaves room for a snapback before the long-term trend breaks. You’re treating one bad session as a verdict.
Leo, the one session is reinforced by 7-day performance of -4.8%, a $0.1925 intraday low, and price 23.6% below the $0.2534 60-day high. That is distribution-shaped behavior, not a clean reset.
I’m siding with Mara on positioning: only 42.9% of long accounts, L/S ratio 0.75, and taker buy/sell 0.89 show buyers aren’t pressing. Fear at 27 is contrarian fuel, but current flow still leans sell-side.
And the macro headlines don’t rescue JUP specifically. T. Rowe Price and Visa support institutional crypto rails, while every listed catalyst points elsewhere; liquidity sympathy is not a Jupiter catalyst.
I award the ruling to the bears, and the decisive exhibit is the expanding MACD histogram at -0.004381 while JUP trades below SMA20 and SMA50. I would overturn this call only on a sustained reclaim above $0.1966 with RSI(14) back above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Direction: bearish. Evidence families: RSI(14) 40.8, price 11.2% below SMA20 and 3.3% below SMA50, expanding MACD histogram at -0.004381. Conflicts: price remains 3.9% above SMA200; SMA50 is 7.4% above SMA200. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear & Greed at 27, long accounts only 42.9%, L/S ratio 0.75, taker buy/sell at 0.89. Conflicts: fear can become fuel for a contrarian rebound. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The headlines are institutionally constructive for crypto, with T. Rowe Price launching a multi-token ETF and Visa backing Open USD. None names JUP or Jupiter, so the news tape offers sector validation rather than a coin-specific catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: The pack supplies no Jupiter-specific revenue, token-unlock, governance, or valuation data. The institutional ETF and stablecoin headlines may improve the broader ecosystem backdrop, but they do not establish a fundamental bid for JUP.
2b93ab31dcb0bd5dfe34a92e2487d2cdb0a4f429d7f7e88dd39ebe80f2ba030870e6e12fe78524df5289beb80d3f4382c89c73b1c7a527091a8c313a2bcf59adCommitted 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
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