JUP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
JUP sits at $0.1886 with RSI 39.6 and a 13.7% 30-day slide
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-24 01:34 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Neutral — -4.5% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — -11.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Overweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — +3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — +16.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Neutral — +6.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Neutral — -5.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Overweight — -8.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -8.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — -5.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +6.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +6.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained reclaim of $0.1886 accompanied by RSI(14) above 50 invalidates the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1441 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that 1.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that 1. Key support to defend sits near $0.1441. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugly number, Mara: JUP is down 13.7% over 30 days and trades 8.4% under SMA20. But RSI at 39.6 is pressure, not capitulation, and the MACD histogram is contracting; with price still 1.5% above SMA200 and SMA50 7.8% above SMA200, the longer structure hasn't been buried yet.
Leo, that 1.5% above SMA200 is a thin life raft against a 25.6% gap below the 60-day high at $0.2534. Your contracting MACD is not a reversal; price is still below both SMA20 and SMA50, down 2.7% in seven days, and takers are buying at only 0.90 versus selling.
· Solana DeFi rotation
· Short-covering from Fear&Greed 28
· Headline-driven crypto liquidity
Invalidation: A sustained reclaim of $0.1886 accompanied by RSI(14) above 50 invalidates the bearish ruling.
Leo, you call RSI 39.6 stale pressure, but show me the reclaim: JUP is still at $0.1886, beneath SMA20 and SMA50. A green structural average doesn't erase a red swing chart.
Mara, fear is already visible at 28 and only 44.1% of accounts are long. When the crowd is this defensive, one Solana DeFi rotation can turn the crowded short narrative into fuel.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, you call RSI 39.6 stale pressure, but show me the reclaim: JUP is still at $0.1886, beneath SMA20 and SMA50. A green structural average doesn't erase a red swing chart.
Mara, fear is already visible at 28 and only 44.1% of accounts are long. When the crowd is this defensive, one Solana DeFi rotation can turn the crowded short narrative into fuel.
I’m with Mara on the immediate flow: the 0.79 long/short ratio and 0.90 taker buy/sell ratio show no aggressive demand. The positioning is less euphoric than fearful, but fearful positioning alone is not a buy trigger.
And the macro tape offers no rescue: the Clarity Act may miss its window, while the Robinhood hack headline shows how quickly liquidity gets hijacked by memecoin noise. Until JUP reclaims $0.1886 decisively and builds above the nearby trend averages, hope is paying the spread.
I award the bear side on the decisive exhibit: JUP is 8.4% below SMA20 while takers favor sellers at a 0.90 buy/sell ratio. My ruling flips only if price reclaims $0.1886 and RSI(14) rises above 50; until then, a break toward the $0.1441 60-day low remains the cleaner risk.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
The chart is bearish in the near term: price is 8.4% below SMA20 and 5.8% below SMA50, while RSI is 39.6 and MACD histogram remains negative at -0.002498. I still see a longer-term structural counterpoint in price holding 1.5% above SMA200 and SMA50 leading SMA200 by 7.8%.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
The crowd is fearful, with Fear&Greed at 28, only 44.1% of accounts long, a 0.79 long/short ratio, and taker buy/sell at 0.90. That is defensive positioning, but sellers still control the tape; funding is not provided, so I won't invent a carry signal.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The constructive headlines frame Jupiter as Solana's leading aggregator and a broader full-stack DeFi platform, while one headline reports a 14% rise as Solana traders returned to aggregators. The market backdrop is less helpful: the Clarity Act may miss its legislative window, and the Robinhood CEO account hack reinforces memecoin-driven headline risk.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Jupiter's reported investment case rests on its role as a Solana DEX aggregator and its expansion toward broader onchain and traditional-finance connections. The data pack supplies no token-supply, revenue, valuation, or unlock figures, so I cannot justify a fundamental re-rating from this evidence alone.
04620540f434161acbdfcbcf57ec425699a1700ff94fdf5d294ce6170ca1ff4e10578adc3044a1b3f44953f9935e8f2d2c9f6e4a71dade480795911bdd4387d0Committed 2026-07-25T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25