JUP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
JUP’s 0.1908 rebound meets a bearish 30-day slide of 12.8%
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-27 00:38 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-31 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-30 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-29 — Neutral — -4.5% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-28 — Overweight — -11.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-27 — Overweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Overweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Overweight — +3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — +16.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Neutral — +6.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Neutral — -5.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Overweight — -8.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -8.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — -8.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — -5.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +5.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +6.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +6.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.2534, the 60-day high, invalidates the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1441 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: I’m Mara Frost.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I’m Mara Frost. Key support to defend sits near $0.1441. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’m Leo Vance. I’ll concede the ugly number: JUP is down 12.8% over 30 days and sits 4.1% below SMA20. But RSI is only 41.8, fear is already stamped at 30, taker buying leads at 1.16, and price remains 2.7% above SMA200—the selloff looks like a bruised spring, not a broken engine.
I’m Mara Frost. Leo’s spring is sitting below both the 20-day and 50-day averages, down 3.0% in seven days and closing the latest candle at 0.1903 after opening at 0.1915. RSI 41.8 isn’t capitulation; it’s simply weak momentum, while the alleged bullish SMA structure hasn’t stopped a 24.9% collapse from 0.2534.
· oversold rebound from Fear&Greed 30
· taker buy/sell ratio at 1.16
· price holding 2.7% above SMA200
Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.2534, the 60-day high, invalidates the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating the 0.1903 close like a death certificate. Price is still 2.7% over SMA200, and a 1.16 taker ratio says buyers are probing the wreckage.
Leo, probing isn’t winning. Your buyers still haven’t reclaimed SMA20, let alone SMA50; the latest high was only 0.1917 against a 60-day high of 0.2534.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the 0.1903 close like a death certificate. Price is still 2.7% over SMA200, and a 1.16 taker ratio says buyers are probing the wreckage.
Leo, probing isn’t winning. Your buyers still haven’t reclaimed SMA20, let alone SMA50; the latest high was only 0.1917 against a 60-day high of 0.2534.
I’m Theo Okafor. Positioning is hardly a crowded-long trap: long accounts are 50.3% and the L/S ratio is 1.01. That removes one bearish squeeze argument, but it doesn’t create durable demand; the only hard flow clue is the modest 1.16 taker imbalance.
I’m Dmitri Volkov. Fear at 30 can fuel a bounce, sure, but it is not liquidity. With JUP down 12.8% in 30 days and no verified JUP-specific catalyst in the pack, macro hope is just hopium wearing a tie.
I’m Judge Aldrich. I rule for the bears, and the decisive exhibit is JUP’s 12.8% 30-day loss while price remains 4.1% below SMA20 and 5.9% below SMA50. I’ll overturn this ruling on a sustained reclaim above 0.2534, the 60-day high.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I’m Kai Nakamura. Direction: bearish. Evidence families: price below SMA20 by 4.1% and SMA50 by 5.9%; RSI(14) at 41.8; 7-day loss of 3.0% and 30-day loss of 12.8%. Conflicts: price is 2.7% above SMA200, SMA50 sits 9.2% above SMA200, and MACD histogram is contracting. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
I’m Sofia Reyes. Direction: bearish-to-neutral. Evidence families: Fear&Greed at 30, with only 50.3% of long accounts and a 1.01 long/short ratio; taker buy/sell at 1.16. Conflicts: aggressive taker buying is a modest bullish tell despite broad fear. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
I’m Ed Walsh. The headlines frame Jupiter as Solana’s leading DEX aggregator and mention a 14% rise as Solana traders returned to DeFi, but the pack supplies no fresh company catalyst or verified follow-through. Macro headlines about tokenization and the Clarity timeline are sector-level color, not a JUP-specific earnings event.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
I’m Priya Anand. The pack offers product-positioning headlines but no token-supply, revenue, fee-capture, unlock, or valuation figures. That leaves the fundamental case unproven, while JUP trades 24.9% below its 60-day high at 0.2534.
8fee93bfccd381df8160e4fe8507ba3881192f9c90d5d445e9846fa0216f4f6cace92be1bfed0b9c7e7a863093b8afefb792907be0285e95e6b33ca637a34faeCommitted 2026-07-28T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25