ALGO / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
ALGO sits at $0.07865 with RSI 38.4 and a 19.1% discount to SMA200
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-14 00:54 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Neutral — -8.5% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -8.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — -5.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Overweight — -7.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Overweight — -9.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Neutral — -8.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Overweight — -9.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — +7.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +9.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +7.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +13.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +11.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +14.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +5.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -6.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -5.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated if ALGO reclaims and holds $0.07878 while RSI(14) rises above 50.. Cautious read: a break below $0.07559 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, the $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, the $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.07559. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: ALGO is 19.1% below its SMA200, with the MACD histogram expanding at -0.0006745. But RSI at 38.4 is already bruised, and price sits just 4.0% above the $0.07559 60-day floor; that makes the damage look stale and the quantum-resistance headlines a live catalyst. We also got burned by underweight calls on August 2, 1, and July 31, which lost 7.0%, 9.4%, and 7.5% versus BTC, so reflexive pessimism has already paid its tuition.
Leo, the $0.07559 floor is not support until buyers prove they can defend it; right now the tape is sliding toward it, down 11.7% in seven days. RSI 38.4 is weak, not washed out, and every moving-average frame is bearish, including SMA50 sitting 13.3% below SMA200. The August 4 overweight call lost 9.9% versus BTC, while the August 6 and 5 neutral calls still lagged by 8.9% and 8.8%—the record is shouting that this weakness is not merely stale.
I think the downside has more room than the ruling admits: the 60-day high at $0.1038 is 24.3% above spot, while an expanding -0.0006745 MACD histogram can accelerate a break of $0.07559. The August 4 overweight loss of 9.9% versus BTC shows how quickly this chart can punish optimism.
The fastest failure is a defense of $0.07559 followed by a reclaim of $0.07878; that would make the bearish breakdown fragile. RSI 38.4 is weak but not deeply oversold, so the single most dangerous exhibit is the assumption that a nearby low must break.
Mara overreaches if she treats the recent record as proof of a one-way path, while Leo overreaches if he treats headlines as demand. The deciding condition is whether price holds $0.07559 or reclaims $0.07878 with RSI(14) above 50.
· 60-day low defense near $0.07559
· quantum-resistance headline catalyst
· long-account crowding at 55.5%
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated if ALGO reclaims and holds $0.07878 while RSI(14) rises above 50.
Mara, you’re treating a 4.0% gap to the 60-day low as a death sentence. A single defense of $0.07559 would turn that compressed range into a springboard.
Leo, a springboard needs a buyer. Long accounts are already 55.5%, yet taker buy/sell is only 1.00; that is hopeful ownership without aggressive demand.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating a 4.0% gap to the 60-day low as a death sentence. A single defense of $0.07559 would turn that compressed range into a springboard.
Leo, a springboard needs a buyer. Long accounts are already 55.5%, yet taker buy/sell is only 1.00; that is hopeful ownership without aggressive demand.
Leo’s catalyst case lacks flow confirmation. With an L/S ratio of 1.25 and no funding-rate data, I can’t call the crowd washed out; I can only say longs are leaning into a falling chart.
The SEC’s repeated delays around tokenization innovation keep liquidity-sensitive assets on a short leash. A quantum headline cannot outrun a 19.1% SMA200 deficit while the broader regulatory tape is stalled.
I rule for the bear side: underweight is the winning thesis, and the decisive exhibit is the synchronized technical breakdown—price is 19.1% below SMA200, SMA50 is 13.3% below SMA200, and MACD is worsening. The recent record makes this call different because the current pack combines that structure with 55.5% long accounts and Fear & Greed at 29, whereas the prior losing calls are now being judged against a clearly documented breakdown and a nearby $0.07559 stress level. I overturn this ruling if ALGO reclaims and holds $0.07878 while RSI(14) rises above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. RSI(14) is 38.4, price is below SMA20 by 5.2%, SMA50 by 6.7%, and SMA200 by 19.1%; MACD histogram is -0.0006745 and expanding. The 60-day low at $0.07559 is only 4.0% below, while the 60-day high at $0.1038 is 24.3% away.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Fear & Greed is 29, yet long accounts still lead at 55.5% with an L/S ratio of 1.25; taker buy/sell is exactly 1.00. StockTwits is nearly flat at 4 bullish versus 3 bearish tags among 13 messages, leaving fear and residual long bias in conflict.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The quantum-resistance headlines offer a credible Algorand-specific narrative, but the price response is not confirming it: ALGO is down 11.7% over 7 days and 7.4% over 30 days. Broader SEC headlines point to continued delays around tokenization and crypto-regulatory initiatives, keeping the macro news backdrop unsupportive.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Algorand’s native quantum-resistance angle is a differentiated protocol narrative, but the data pack supplies no valuation, revenue, adoption, or token-supply metrics to establish fundamental mispricing. The current evidence therefore favors price and liquidity signals over the optimistic headline case.
3dff4e564d889d31f332b0f9990dfcc90d551e452755dd69f3a7ecf26be956f753f40f609f1c3a40d35f95df8482a1a109627902af10da6eeb4433219b8978bcCommitted 2026-08-15T00:20:00+00:00 · 95 rulings that day · Check the chain
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