ALGO / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
ALGO’s 19.5% seven-day surge meets a bearish 50/200-day structure
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-25 00:57 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Neutral — -8.5% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Neutral — -8.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — -5.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Overweight — -7.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Overweight — -9.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -8.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Neutral — -8.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Overweight — -9.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — +7.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +9.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +7.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +13.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +11.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +14.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +5.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -6.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -5.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The neutral ruling turns bullish above 0.1049 and bearish below 0.09146.. Cautious read: a break below $0.09146 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that 19.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Mixed, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that 19. Key support to defend sits near $0.09146. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede Mara’s strongest number: SMA50 sits 12.3% below SMA200, and the MACD histogram is contracting. But ALGO is 9.5% above SMA20, 10.5% above SMA50, up 19.5% in seven days, and only 11.4% below the 0.1049 60-day high—momentum has already forced the old bearish map to redraw itself. Leo also remembers the 2026-08-08 overweight call lost 7.9% versus BTC, but today’s price reclaim above both short averages is a materially different exhibit.
Leo, that 19.5% sprint is precisely the number I distrust: it has carried price into Fear & Greed 74 with 62.0% long accounts, while taker buy/sell sits at 0.95. A move that cannot clear 0.1049 and still trades 3.1% below SMA200 is a crowded rebound, not a repaired trend. The 2026-08-08 overweight call lost 7.9% versus BTC, and this tape still punishes optimism when structure lags the headline.
I see more upside than the ruling admits: RSI is only 61.1, ALGO is 11.4% below 0.1049, and the seven-day return is already 19.5% despite the broader tape’s pullback risk. A clean push through 0.1049 would expose how much upside the bearish moving-average gap has underpriced.
The fastest failure is a rejection below 0.1049 followed by a break of 0.09146. The fragile exhibit is the bullish momentum burst: taker buy/sell is 0.95, long accounts are 62.0%, and the 2026-08-08 overweight call lost 7.9% versus BTC.
Leo overreaches by treating 10.5% above SMA50 as trend repair; Mara overreaches if she treats a 61.1 RSI as exhaustion. The deciding condition is whether ALGO clears 0.1049 or instead breaks 0.09146 while remaining below SMA200.
· crowded long accounts at 62.0%
· Bitcoin pullback and liquidity reversal
· rejection at 0.1049
Invalidation: The neutral ruling turns bullish above 0.1049 and bearish below 0.09146.
Leo, your 10.5% above SMA50 is a rear-view mirror metric; the live ceiling is 0.1049, still 11.4% away. What proves this isn’t another reflex rally into resistance?
Mara, RSI at 61.1 is firm but not euphoric, and ALGO is only 0.000? below no—let me be precise: the close is 0.09301 against a 0.1049 high, leaving room before overbought territory becomes the thesis.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, your 10.5% above SMA50 is a rear-view mirror metric; the live ceiling is 0.1049, still 11.4% away. What proves this isn’t another reflex rally into resistance?
Mara, RSI at 61.1 is firm but not euphoric, and ALGO is only 0.000? below no—let me be precise: the close is 0.09301 against a 0.1049 high, leaving room before overbought territory becomes the thesis.
I’m siding with the skeptic on flow: 62.0% long accounts and a 1.63 ratio show bullish crowding, but taker buy/sell at 0.95 says the aggressor tape is selling into it. Funding is absent, so nobody gets to invent a carry confirmation.
The Bitcoin-near-$80,000 backdrop helps, but the next pullback is explicitly the macro test. If liquidity enthusiasm fades, ALGO’s 23.0% distance above 0.07559 offers more room below than the bulls admit.
I rule neutral, with the bearish long-term structure as the decisive exhibit: ALGO remains 3.1% below SMA200 while crowd greed is 74. The recent 2026-08-08 overweight loss of 7.9% versus BTC shows why a rebound alone is insufficient, but the current 19.5% seven-day advance and reclaim above SMA20/SMA50 distinguish this setup from a pure breakdown. My ruling flips bullish only on a decisive break above 0.1049; it turns bearish if price loses 0.09146, the latest candle low.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
RSI(14) is 61.1, while price sits 9.5% above SMA20 and 10.5% above SMA50. That is constructive short-term momentum, but price remains 3.1% below SMA200 and SMA50 trails SMA200 by 12.3%; direction: mixed; evidence families: RSI, moving-average structure, MACD, multi-period returns, support/resistance; conflicts: short-term strength versus long-term bearish averages and contracting MACD histogram; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear & Greed is 74, long accounts are 62.0% with a 1.63 long/short ratio, and taker buy/sell is only 0.95. The crowd is bullish while aggressive buying is not confirming it; direction: bearish; evidence families: Fear & Greed, account skew, taker flow, social tags; conflicts: bullish social tags versus sub-1.00 taker flow; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
ALGO is being pulled higher by a broad crypto rally, digital-asset-policy buzz, and Robinhood’s relisting. Bitcoin nearing $80,000 makes the macro tape supportive, but the headlines are narrative catalysts rather than coin-specific fundamental proof.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The pack offers no revenue, usage, emissions, staking, or valuation data for Algorand. Policy visibility and Robinhood access improve the narrative, but they do not establish durable token demand.
be0ec3a82c4abfcc4d890d0d70daa8098ec448ccea6729336e69805c20fa519514faabecdb7719003b4bda7de235e76e71170edaad505076d223f4a3b6d33cbeCommitted 2026-08-26T00:20:00+00:00 · 92 rulings that day · Check the chain
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