CHZ / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
CHZ’s 3.42% bounce is fighting a 57.0% discount to its 200-day average
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-21 02:07 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -6.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -5.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -6.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -5.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — -8.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-11 — Underweight — -9.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -3.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — +3.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -6.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -9.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -11.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -9.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -11.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -6.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -14.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -12.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Neutral — -11.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A close above 0.02036 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.01163 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that 5.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that 5. Key support to defend sits near $0.01163. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly exhibit: CHZ sits 57.0% under SMA200 and 34.8% below the 60-day high. But the tape is turning at the short end—price is 4.4% over SMA20, MACD histogram is expanding at +0.0002393, and the coin is up 5.7% in seven days; that can make the long-term damage stale for a weeks-long rebound.
Leo, that 5.7% is a small green flare against an 11.0% 30-day loss and a bearish SMA50/SMA200 spread of -53.2%. The claimed turn has not reclaimed SMA50, and RSI at 49.6 is nowhere near evidence of durable demand; calling a bounce a reversal is hopium wearing chart paint.
I see more downside than the ruling admits: CHZ is 34.8% below 0.02036, and greed at 72 leaves room for sentiment to unwind. The 59.0% long-account share and 1.44 L/S ratio make a slide toward 0.01163 plausible if the 3.42% bounce fails.
The fragile exhibit is the bearish trend extrapolation: MACD is expanding at +0.0002393, price is 4.4% above SMA20, and Bitcoin is above $75,000. A sustained break above 0.02036 would invalidate the underweight case quickly, while the shown record has four WIN and zero LOSS for prior underweight calls.
Leo overreaches by treating a 5.7% seven-day rise as a trend reversal; Mara overreaches only if she ignores the expanding MACD. The deciding condition is whether CHZ can reclaim and sustain above its unprovided SMA50, with 0.02036 as the concrete upside regime-break level.
· short-term MACD rebound
· Bitcoin strength above $75,000
· fan-token burn or ecosystem-expansion catalyst
Invalidation: A close above 0.02036 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, the 24h print is +3.42% with a close at 0.01328, just 0.6% below the session high of 0.01336. Sellers didn’t break the 0.01313 low, so the immediate tape has bite.
Leo, a one-day range proves little when the nearest 60-day high is 0.02036 and the 60-day low is 0.01163. You’re celebrating a 0.00015 intraday spread while the broader chart remains structurally impaired.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 24h print is +3.42% with a close at 0.01328, just 0.6% below the session high of 0.01336. Sellers didn’t break the 0.01313 low, so the immediate tape has bite.
Leo, a one-day range proves little when the nearest 60-day high is 0.02036 and the 60-day low is 0.01163. You’re celebrating a 0.00015 intraday spread while the broader chart remains structurally impaired.
I’m with Mara on the crowd mechanics: 59.0% of long accounts and an L/S ratio of 1.44 put optimism on the wrong side of a chart still below SMA50. Taker buy/sell at 1.09 is mildly constructive, but funding is absent, so nobody can honestly call the bullish crowd crowded by funding.
Bitcoin above $75,000 is a liquidity tailwind, but CHZ’s 30-day loss of 11.0% says the tide has not lifted this boat. Until CHZ recovers the 0.02036 high zone’s path through higher structure, macro enthusiasm is borrowed scenery.
I rule for the bear side: underweight wins because CHZ remains 8.2% below SMA50 and 57.0% below SMA200 despite the 3.42% daily bounce. My decisive exhibit is the bearish moving-average structure, reinforced by four WIN and zero LOSS in the shown underweight record. This ruling flips if CHZ closes above SMA50 and holds there; the pack gives no numeric SMA50 price, so the hard price invalidation is a close above 0.02036, the 60-day high.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Bearish overall: CHZ trades 4.4% above SMA20 but 8.2% below SMA50 and 57.0% below SMA200; SMA50 sits 53.2% below SMA200. MACD histogram is positive and expanding at +0.0002393, while RSI is neutral at 49.6. Direction: bearish; evidence families: moving-average structure, momentum, RSI; conflicts: short-term MACD and 7d gain of 5.7% versus 30d loss of 11.0%; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Bearish: Fear & Greed is elevated at 72, long accounts lead at 59.0% with an L/S ratio of 1.44, and taker buy/sell is only 1.09. The crowd is leaning optimistic while price remains 34.8% below the 60d high of 0.02036. Direction: bearish; evidence families: greed gauge, account skew, taker flow, price structure; conflicts: positive taker ratio and 24h gain of 3.42%; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
News flow is a weak catalyst mix: Bitcoin has pushed past $75,000, but CHZ-specific headlines include a 5% decline amid expansion to Base and Solana and a 7.04% drop during a broad crypto selloff. The fan-token burn headline is potentially supportive, yet the pack supplies no quantified fundamental impact.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Chiliz has ecosystem-expansion and fan-token-burn narratives, but the data pack provides no token-supply, revenue, adoption, or valuation metrics to establish durable fundamental support. I treat the headlines as secondary to CHZ’s deeply weak long-term price structure.
7bef8ef767b6c7b6e25ea03aac2c4309da3c3d76ac2e804216a6df2fcda375575c21c070ba128f2a35607134962360a82f87d1bc3398b693184c1393829130b0Committed 2026-08-22T00:20:00+00:00 · 92 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23