CHZ / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
CHZ sits at $0.01259 with RSI 33.6, but the chart still points lower
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-15 01:46 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -6.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -5.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-16 — Underweight — -6.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -5.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — -8.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-11 — Underweight — -9.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -3.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — +3.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -6.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -9.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -11.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -9.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -11.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -6.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -14.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -12.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -11.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of SMA20, approximately $0.01286, accompanied by improving taker demand.. Cautious read: a break below $0.01206 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: That RSI is not a floor; it is a receipt for sustained damage.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: That RSI is not a floor; it is a receipt for sustained damage. Key support to defend sits near $0.01206. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: CHZ is 60.7% under its SMA200 and down 24.7% over 30 days. But RSI at 33.6 is already in bruised territory, the MACD histogram is expanding at +0.0001732, and price is only 4.3% above the 60-day low—this is where stale downside can turn into a snapback.
That RSI is not a floor; it is a receipt for sustained damage. Leo’s bounce case still has CHZ below every major moving average, with the SMA50 sitting 52.7% beneath the SMA200 structure-wise and taker buy/sell at 0.92, so the supposed spring has no demonstrated demand behind it.
I see more upside than the ruling admits: CHZ is only 4.3% above $0.01206, RSI is 33.6, and MACD is expanding at +0.0001732. A thinly supported rebound could travel far before the 60-day high at $0.02512 even enters the conversation.
The fastest failure is a clean break below $0.01206, because the market already sits 24.7% lower over 30 days and 49.9% below the 60-day high. The fragile exhibit is the bullish MACD turn: it can vanish while the long-account share remains 56.0%.
Leo overreaches by treating RSI 33.6 as a floor; Mara overreaches only if she assumes every oversold reading must extend lower. The deciding condition is whether CHZ holds $0.01206 while reclaiming SMA20, roughly $0.01286.
· oversold reflex rally
· fan-token catalyst
· MACD reversal
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of SMA20, approximately $0.01286, accompanied by improving taker demand.
Mara, you’re treating the 60-day low at $0.01206 like gravity. CHZ is at $0.01259, MACD is improving, and a 4.3% cushion can become a sharp mean-reversion move.
Leo, a 4.3% cushion is barely a speed bump against a 24.7% monthly slide. Your MACD print is tiny beside the -60.7% SMA200 gap; calling that a spring is hopium with decimals.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the 60-day low at $0.01206 like gravity. CHZ is at $0.01259, MACD is improving, and a 4.3% cushion can become a sharp mean-reversion move.
Leo, a 4.3% cushion is barely a speed bump against a 24.7% monthly slide. Your MACD print is tiny beside the -60.7% SMA200 gap; calling that a spring is hopium with decimals.
I’m with Mara on the flow read: 56.0% of accounts are long, yet takers show 0.92 buy/sell. That is not capitulation; it is hopeful crowding without follow-through.
And the macro headlines are generic liquidity theater. Nothing in the pack links the White House crypto meeting or the conditional bank charter to CHZ cash flows, while the token remains 49.9% below its 60-day high.
I rule for the bear side: the decisive exhibit is CHZ’s bearish moving-average structure, with price 60.7% below SMA200 and SMA50/SMA200 at -52.7%. The ruling is overturned by a sustained move above SMA20, currently implied by a price recovery of more than 2.1% from $0.01259, or by a break above the 60-day low defense at $0.01206 failing to occur while momentum improves.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
CHZ is below SMA20 by 2.1%, SMA50 by 16.8%, and SMA200 by 60.7%; the SMA50/SMA200 spread is -52.7%, a deeply bearish structure. RSI 33.6 and expanding MACD histogram of +0.0001732 suggest a reflex bounce is possible, not a trend reversal.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear & Greed is 34, while 56.0% of accounts are long and taker buy/sell is only 0.92. That is anxious, mildly crowded optimism facing weaker aggressive demand; StockTwits contributes no usable sample from 0 messages.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The World Cup 2026 fan-token headline is the only CHZ-adjacent catalyst in the pack, while the broader Trump and crypto-bank headlines do not establish a direct CHZ earnings or adoption impulse. The news tape offers narrative oxygen, but no quantified fundamental catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The data pack provides no token-supply, revenue, adoption, or network-usage figures for CHZ. The fan-token narrative is relevant to Chiliz, but it cannot outweigh a price 49.9% below the 60-day high without operating evidence.
351328075440ec500d8acac22bca4d55bf6ff9e28c5a5eba931cc5fe5baf38ccb9992f9aaddcb66d097da88829da3966f8938204256939eecd449461ccbccfffCommitted 2026-08-16T00:20:00+00:00 · 96 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23