SNX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SNX sits at $0.192, only 0.7% above its 60-day low as bearish structure dominates
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-19 01:37 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -8.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -6.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -10.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -4.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -4.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -4.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above the 60-day high of $0.2546 overturns the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1904 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: That 31.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: That 31. Key support to defend sits near $0.1904. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: SNX is 30.9% below its SMA200 and only 0.7% above 0.1904. But RSI at 31.5 is already pressed into washout territory, while the MACD histogram is contracting; the avalanche may be losing force just as the crowd starts staring at the wreckage.
That 31.5 RSI is not a floor, Leo; it is a receipt for persistent damage. Price remains below every major average, the 30-day loss is -17.7%, and a contracting negative MACD histogram still sits below zero—hopium is mistaking deceleration for reversal.
I think the bearish call leaves room on the table: RSI is 31.5 and SNX is just 0.7% above $0.1904, so a failed breakdown could snap sharply before the thesis has time to celebrate. The MACD histogram is contracting, and the prior record shows 3 WIN / 0 LOSS for underweight calls—but four of the eight calls were pushes, so the downside edge has not been explosive every time.
The fastest failure is a rebound from $0.1904 that turns the oversold reading into a squeeze. The fragile exhibit is RSI 31.5: it can stay depressed while price keeps falling, but if SNX reclaims SMA20 after a -17.7% 30-day slide, the bearish structure would be under immediate pressure.
Leo overreaches by treating a contracting MACD histogram as proof of exhaustion; Mara overreaches only if she assumes $0.1904 must break. The deciding condition is whether price holds above $0.1904 or loses that 60-day low.
· oversold rebound from $0.1904
· MACD contraction develops into reversal
· crypto-wide macro shock
Invalidation: A sustained move above the 60-day high of $0.2546 overturns the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating the 60-day low at 0.1904 like a law of physics. A 0.7% cushion and contracting MACD can mark exhaustion, not necessarily another leg down.
Leo, exhaustion needs a bid. The taker ratio is 0.98, price is 6.4% below SMA20, and the latest close at 0.1917 is barely breathing above that low.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the 60-day low at 0.1904 like a law of physics. A 0.7% cushion and contracting MACD can mark exhaustion, not necessarily another leg down.
Leo, exhaustion needs a bid. The taker ratio is 0.98, price is 6.4% below SMA20, and the latest close at 0.1917 is barely breathing above that low.
I’ll add the crowd’s dry little joke: 53.1% of long accounts and a 1.13 L/S ratio coexist with sub-one taker flow. That is modest bullish crowding without aggressive demand, and funding is unavailable to rescue the case.
The macro tape is hostile: Bitcoin is falling during Middle East conflict, and the pack explicitly says crypto is not a haven. Sector tokenization headlines cannot manufacture liquidity for SNX at $0.192.
I rule for the bear side. I give decisive weight to the complete bearish price structure: SNX is below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, with the SMA50 21.9% below the SMA200. My ruling is overturned by a sustained move above the 60-day high at $0.2546.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: RSI(14) 31.5; price below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200 by 6.4%, 11.5%, and 30.9%; bearish SMA50/SMA200 spread of -21.9%; 30-day return -17.7%. Conflicts: MACD histogram is contracting, offering a small momentum-reversal argument. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed at 46; taker buy/sell at 0.98; long accounts at 53.1% with a 1.13 L/S ratio. Conflicts: fear is not extreme, and StockTwits supplied no usable sample from 0 messages. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Direction: bearish-to-neutral. Bitcoin is falling amid Middle East conflict, reinforcing the data pack's warning that crypto is not acting as a haven. Regulatory and tokenization headlines are constructive for the sector, but they offer no SNX-specific catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Direction: neutral-to-bearish. IBM's regulated digital-asset platform and interest in tokenized stocks support broader infrastructure adoption. The pack provides no SNX-specific revenue, supply, staking, or protocol-growth data to counter a token trading 30.9% below its SMA200.
b1a5fdfef3532bb18e13c4e5a73893516dae05350a7b64175762dd9717ba6e720f1b74c5d5aa8bd9fe0e079b811d2482b9bd27566afea1ff19e554ca5230c439Committed 2026-08-20T00:20:00+00:00 · 73 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23 · 2026-08-22