RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
Despite a 73 Fear & Greed reading, RUNE sits 24.1% below its 60-day high with a negative MACD histogram.
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-09-05 02:31 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Overweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — -7.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — -5.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 4 exchanges
Invalidation: Trade breaks and closes above 0.6273.. Cautious read: a break below $0.3718 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that 'structural strength' is a mirage when we are still 24.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that 'structural strength' is a mirage when we are still 24. Key support to defend sits near $0.3718. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
Mara, you're obsessing over the -0.0005723 MACD histogram, but that bearish divergence is stale compared to the structural strength: price is holding +9.9% above the SMA200. The market has already shrugged off the recent weakness, and with a 73 Fear & Greed reading, the emotional fuel is there to push this higher.
Leo, that 'structural strength' is a mirage when we are still 24.1% below the 60-day high of 0.6273. You're betting on a 'Greed' reading of 73 to save you, but that extreme sentiment usually precedes a flush, especially when the MACD histogram is expanding negative—momentum is leaking out right now.
· Regulatory fallout from hacker funds
· Sentiment reversal from 73 Greed
· Negative MACD momentum expansion
Invalidation: Trade breaks and closes above 0.6273.
You're ignoring the 30-day gain of +8.4%, Mara; the trend is up, and the hacker news is just free marketing for the protocol's swap capabilities.
Free marketing? It's a liability, Leo, and that +8.4% gain looks fragile against the 60d low of 0.3718—if support cracks, 'Greed' turns to panic instantly.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
You're ignoring the 30-day gain of +8.4%, Mara; the trend is up, and the hacker news is just free marketing for the protocol's swap capabilities.
Free marketing? It's a liability, Leo, and that +8.4% gain looks fragile against the 60d low of 0.3718—if support cracks, 'Greed' turns to panic instantly.
Support isn't cracking; we're +2.1% over the last week and sitting comfortably above the SMA20, so the dip-buyers are already defending this level.
Defending with a taker buy/sell ratio of 0.95? That's selling pressure, Leo, not buying—you're fighting the flow.
I'm siding with the bears. The decisive exhibit is the negative MACD histogram expansion (-0.0005723) occurring at a price level 24.1% below the recent high, indicating that the 'Greed' sentiment isn't translating into buying power. This ruling invalidates if price breaks and holds above the 60-day high of 0.6273.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Price holds +6.5% above the SMA50, but the MACD histogram is expanding negatively at -0.0005723, suggesting momentum is fading despite the elevated price.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Crowd psychology is firmly in 'Greed' territory at 73, yet the long/short ratio of 1.14 indicates only mild conviction, leaving the market vulnerable to a swift reversal if price dips.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Headlines are dominated by the Coldcard hacker routing stolen Bitcoin through THORChain; while this proves utility, it attracts the wrong kind of regulatory spotlight and negative sentiment.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Network activity is undeniably high given the hacker's usage, but relying on illicit volume for transaction fees is a fragile foundation for long-term valuation.
73ffca40529790baf592e4e0d49d7be16ba084ada502cc282d54b7814a093fad4910750d35ef228ada15e5324d077ec5e03b15a767441cb6079eaf80baffe165Committed 2026-09-06T00:20:00+00:00 · 76 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
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