RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
RUNE’s 0.4386 rebound is fighting a bearish long-term structure
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-23 00:34 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Overweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-28 — Overweight — -7.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-27 — Overweight — -5.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 4 exchanges
Invalidation: A decisive close above 0.4643 with the MACD histogram expanding would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.2939 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, you’re polishing a bounce inside a damaged structure.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, you’re polishing a bounce inside a damaged structure. Key support to defend sits near $0.2939. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest exhibit, colleagues: SMA50 sits 11.1% below SMA200 and RUNE is still 2.6% under that 200-day average. But Leo sees a washed-out launchpad, not a corpse—RSI at 60.5, price 5.1% above SMA20, and gains of 4.1% over seven days and 4.8% over thirty say the rebound has traction while Fear&Greed sits at 31.
Leo, you’re polishing a bounce inside a damaged structure. The price is only 5.5% below the 0.4643 sixty-day high, yet MACD momentum is contracting at +0.003404 and takers sell at a 0.92 ratio; that makes 0.4386 look like distribution approaching resistance, not a bargain basement.
· short-term rebound toward 0.4643
· Fear&Greed at 31 enabling a squeeze
· operations resuming after the pause
Invalidation: A decisive close above 0.4643 with the MACD histogram expanding would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, the 0.2939 low is 49.3% below spot, so the market has already priced a brutal collapse. A 4.1% seven-day climb with RSI 60.5 is evidence buyers can still move this tape.
Leo, distance from the low isn’t a balance-sheet repair. Long accounts are already 58.3% of the book, and your buyers are paying into a contracting MACD impulse.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 0.2939 low is 49.3% below spot, so the market has already priced a brutal collapse. A 4.1% seven-day climb with RSI 60.5 is evidence buyers can still move this tape.
Leo, distance from the low isn’t a balance-sheet repair. Long accounts are already 58.3% of the book, and your buyers are paying into a contracting MACD impulse.
I’ll side with Mara on positioning: a 1.40 long/short account ratio is not capitulation, and taker buy/sell at 0.92 says aggressive flow is net selling. Fear at 31 is emotional cover, not proof of a short squeeze.
Leo, a macro bid needs liquidity, and this pack gives me none. With RUNE below SMA200 and the protocol carrying an $11M-plus exploit headline, I’m not underwriting a risk-on miracle.
I rule for Mara and Dmitri: the decisive exhibit is RUNE’s bearish moving-average structure—spot at 0.4386 remains 2.6% below SMA200 while SMA50 is 11.1% beneath it. I overturn this ruling only if RUNE closes above 0.4643 with MACD histogram expanding rather than contracting.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
RSI is 60.5 and price sits 5.1% above SMA20, but RUNE remains 2.6% below SMA200 while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 11.1%. The MACD histogram is positive at +0.003404 yet contracting; resistance is 0.4643 and support is 0.2939.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear&Greed is 31, but 58.3% of long accounts and a 1.40 L/S ratio show traders are already leaning long. Taker buy/sell at 0.92 confirms sellers still have the immediate edge; funding and KOL data are unavailable.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The dominant coin-specific headline is the reported $10.7M-plus THORChain exploit, followed by a five-week operational pause and resumed activity. Broader crypto-policy headlines around the Clarity Act are secondary; they do not repair the protocol-specific credibility damage.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
THORChain has resumed operations after the exploit, but the reported theft across at least nine chains remains the central fundamental overhang. No valuation, revenue, or token-supply data is provided to justify underwriting a durable recovery.
0062d7c73850468e84b0dffd1022f03ad62f77b85e470c09823561cd1abaa6c78624d818ee7811d0e765aa63f60423eb1e28fec5823b0c3f5024085df84084a2Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25