RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
RUNE at $0.4255 faces a bearish MA stack as RSI sits at 46.6
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-14 01:28 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 4 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned by a sustained move above $0.458 with RSI above 50.. Cautious read: a break below $0.3718 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: I’m Mara Frost: Leo’s 1.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I’m Mara Frost: Leo’s 1. Key support to defend sits near $0.3718. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’m Leo Vance, and I’ll concede the ugliest number: RUNE is 7.1% below its 60-day high, with the 50/200-day average spread at -2.5%. But RSI is only 46.6, not washed out, and taker buy/sell at 1.19 says bids are still punching back; with Fear & Greed at 29, much of the bad news looks stale and priced in.
I’m Mara Frost: Leo’s 1.19 taker ratio is a sparkler, not a fire. Price remains 2.3% under SMA20, 1.4% under SMA200, and the MACD histogram is still negative at -0.002909; a brief burst of buying has failed to reclaim the trend. Calling debt and security headlines “priced in” while the chart stays below its major averages is hopium with a spreadsheet costume.
I’m aggressive: the ruling understates rebound room because spot at $0.4255 is 14.4% above the $0.3718 60-day low, while taker buy/sell is 1.19 and Fear & Greed is only 29. A move back to $0.458 would be a 7.1% recovery, so the upside snapback is still underpriced.
I’m conservative: the fragile exhibit is the isolated taker buy/sell reading of 1.19. If that demand fades while RUNE remains 2.3% below SMA20 and the MACD histogram stays negative at -0.002909, the call can unravel toward $0.3718; funding is unavailable, so no crowding rescue is confirmed.
I’m neutral: the aggressive desk overreaches by treating one flow ratio as a trend reversal, while the bear case overreaches only if it assumes the $0.3718 low must break. The deciding condition is whether price reclaims $0.458 or instead remains below SMA20 with RSI under 50; the settled record favors the bear camp, showing 3 WIN and 0 LOSS on directional calls.
· taker buy/sell at 1.19 sparks a rebound
· Fear & Greed at 29 enables a squeeze
· unverified funding conditions
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned by a sustained move above $0.458 with RSI above 50.
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.3718, still 14.4% below spot; the market has room before it reaches true structural damage. Fear at 29 plus a 1.19 taker ratio can fuel a sharp squeeze toward $0.458.
Leo, that $0.3718 cushion is not support until price proves it can hold higher levels. The first test is SMA20, and RUNE is already 2.3% beneath it; your squeeze thesis needs a reclaim the tape has not delivered.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.3718, still 14.4% below spot; the market has room before it reaches true structural damage. Fear at 29 plus a 1.19 taker ratio can fuel a sharp squeeze toward $0.458.
Leo, that $0.3718 cushion is not support until price proves it can hold higher levels. The first test is SMA20, and RUNE is already 2.3% beneath it; your squeeze thesis needs a reclaim the tape has not delivered.
I’m Theo Okafor: the crowd is not heavily one-sided—49.5% of long accounts and a 0.98 L/S ratio—but that neutrality does not create upside by itself. Without funding data, I can’t confirm a crowded short or a forced unwind; the only verified flow edge is taker buy/sell at 1.19.
I’m Dmitri Volkov: the SEC again delaying tokenization exemptions and canceling the Reg Crypto proposal are liquidity-weather warnings. RUNE’s 7-day return of -5.5% against only +1.7% over 30 days fits a market that punishes fragile stories first.
I’m Judge Aldrich: the bear side wins, decisively on the 2.5% SMA50-versus-SMA200 bearish structure reinforced by price sitting below SMA20 and SMA200. The call is invalidated by a sustained reclaim above $0.458, the 60-day high, or a clear RSI move above 50 alongside that reclaim.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I’m Kai Nakamura: bearish. RUNE sits 2.3% below SMA20 and 1.4% below SMA200, while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 2.5%; the contracting -0.002909 MACD histogram confirms fading momentum. The $0.458 60-day high is resistance, with $0.3718 as the structural downside marker.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
I’m Sofia Reyes: bearish-to-neutral. Fear & Greed is 29, long accounts are only 49.5%, and the L/S ratio is 0.98; taker buy/sell at 1.19 shows some aggressive demand, but it has not repaired the price structure. StockTwits supplied no usable sample: 0 bullish and 0 bearish messages from 0 posts.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
I’m Ed Walsh: bearish news flow. Headlines flag THORChain’s reported $200M debt and a $10.8M vault hit tied to MPC risk, while broader SEC delays reinforce a hostile regulatory backdrop. The headlines are risk amplifiers, not a fresh catalyst for recovery.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
I’m Priya Anand: bearish on the available fundamental evidence. Reported debt and the $10.8M vault incident point to balance-sheet and security overhangs, while the data pack provides no offsetting adoption, revenue, or token-economics improvement. Fundamental support for a sustained rerating is absent.
85b768d702c517e4e86dbe1122ff1da24bb81df2238f5f56219a575a3a81e2b053f40f609f1c3a40d35f95df8482a1a109627902af10da6eeb4433219b8978bcCommitted 2026-08-15T00:20:00+00:00 · 95 rulings that day · Check the chain
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