RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
RUNE sits at $0.41875 with RSI 42.8 and a bearish moving-average stack
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-15 01:23 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 4 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of $0.458, the 60-day high, with RSI(14) above 50.. Cautious read: a break below $0.3718 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.3718. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly print: RUNE is 3.6% below SMA20, RSI is 42.8, and the MACD histogram is -0.003318. But that’s a stale storm already reflected in a Fear&Greed reading of 34, while the 60-day low at $0.3718 sits 12.6% below price; the market has already paid for a lot of dread.
Leo, your $0.3718 cushion is exactly the hopium trap: price is below every cited moving average, including SMA200 by 2.8%, and MACD deterioration is expanding. A 12.6% gap to support is not protection when the trend is already pointing down and the reported $200M debt keeps the fundamental floor questionable.
· fear reversal from Fear&Greed 34
· unquantified funding and crowding
· debt headline failing to produce further selling
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of $0.458, the 60-day high, with RSI(14) above 50.
Mara, the long-account share is 49.9% and taker flow is only 0.96—there’s no euphoric crowd to unwind. The fear is visible, and fear can become fuel.
Leo, neutral positioning doesn’t create demand; it shows buyers aren’t taking control. With RUNE down 3.9% over seven days and 1.49% in 24 hours, the tape is still doing the arguing.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(5)
Mara, the long-account share is 49.9% and taker flow is only 0.96—there’s no euphoric crowd to unwind. The fear is visible, and fear can become fuel.
Leo, neutral positioning doesn’t create demand; it shows buyers aren’t taking control. With RUNE down 3.9% over seven days and 1.49% in 24 hours, the tape is still doing the arguing.
I’m siding with Mara on the flow read: an L/S ratio of 0.99 and taker buy/sell of 0.96 offer no bullish imbalance. Funding is not provided, so any claim of crowded shorts would be invented.
And the macro headlines are decorative here. A crypto-CEO meeting and a conditional bank charter do not offset a coin-specific debt headline or a price sitting 8.6% below the 60-day high.
Then the bear case needs a break, not merely bad scenery. Until $0.3718 gives way, the downside thesis is a crowded narrative without a fresh lower low.
I rule for the bears: underweight is the winning side, driven by the bearish moving-average structure reinforced by an expanding -0.003318 MACD histogram. The shown record supports that discipline—three underweight calls resolved as WINs and none as losses, though pushes and flats are excluded. I would overturn this ruling if RUNE reclaims $0.458, the 60-day high, with RSI(14) rising above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Bearish. RSI(14) is 42.8, price is below SMA20 by 3.6%, SMA50 by 0.5%, and SMA200 by 2.8%; MACD histogram is negative at -0.003318 and expanding. The 60-day range gives support at $0.3718 and resistance at $0.458. Direction: bearish; evidence families: trend, momentum, moving averages, range structure; conflicts: 30-day performance is only -0.6%; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Bearish. Fear&Greed is 34, taker buy/sell is 0.96, and long accounts are only 49.9% with an L/S ratio of 0.99. That is defensive participation rather than capitulation, while StockTwits has 0 bullish and 0 bearish messages from 0 posts. Direction: bearish; evidence families: fear gauge, account positioning, taker flow; conflicts: no clear long-side crowding; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Bearish news flow is dominated by THORChain’s reported $200M debt and a report that stolen funds from an IoTeX bridge exploit were routed through THORChain. The broader crypto headlines—Trump’s expected meeting with crypto CEOs and World Liberty’s conditional bank charter—do not directly repair RUNE’s balance-sheet overhang.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The central fundamental exhibit is the reported $200M debt burden, which leaves recovery dependent on repairing trust and financial strain. No revenue, burn, solvency, or token-supply figures are provided, so the fundamental case is materially negative but not fully quantified.
fa16642adf8e4537bdaefdca04d75efcfb9650ce66f7893ce678e68a202bf694b9992f9aaddcb66d097da88829da3966f8938204256939eecd449461ccbccfffCommitted 2026-08-16T00:20:00+00:00 · 96 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23